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1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm


Tom

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1 minute ago, shakjen said:

Yep, by the looks or the radar now, the moisture isn't wrapping around or filling in. Just splitting and being pushed east.

That is what models indicated would happen though, see below the 00z run of the HRW FV3 that lines up pretty decent with the current radar.

 

ref1km_ptype.us_mw.png

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OAX had hyped up the Falls City area as the jack zone (less so in the past day) and they've been getting ZR all morning. Might really cut into totals in the SE corner of the state if it doesn't change over soon. Even Beatrice had sleet for a bit (now back to snow)

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Sorry for the triple post but this place is a morgue rn lol. Winter wx map from OAX this morning is 10-14" for Lincoln. LOW end is 9" and high is 15", so they seem pretty confident with that range. Steady moderate/heavy snow right now, but nothing too insane. Jack time might be between noonish-3. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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8 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Sorry for the triple post but this place is a morgue rn lol. Winter wx map from OAX this morning is 10-14" for Lincoln. LOW end is 9" and high is 15", so they seem pretty confident with that range. Steady moderate/heavy snow right now, but nothing too insane. Jack time might be between noonish-3. 

Short term models really highlighting the noon to 6pm timeframe for the 1 to 2" rates for Omaha and Lincoln... Most of the models had us only at an inch or two by noon. 

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4 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Short term models really highlighting the noon to 6pm timeframe for the 1 to 2" rates for Omaha and Lincoln... Most of the models had us only at an inch or two by noon. 

Yeah I haven't measured in a bit but I've got to be approaching 3" already and the show's barely started. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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The 12z GFS really dropped the totals over east-central IA.  It had been one of the more bullish models, now one of the driest.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Grid forecast of 10-16”, Sref mean of 14”, pretty map that shows me in the 12”+ range.

What could go wrong?😛 Mother Nature doing whatever the hell she wants🤷‍♂️

EF2BA204-225E-4FE9-8630-5E07BA03E4F0.jpeg

 

I've felt pretty great about this for the past couple days but we're golden. KOMA and KLNK could easily both sneak past 12" by this evening, going to be one we talk about for many years. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 minute ago, snowstorm83 said:

 

I've felt pretty great about this for the past couple days but we're golden. KOMA and KLNK could easily both sneak past 12" by this evening, going to be one we talk about for many years. 

Really feeling like the one nore'easter I experienced in DC. Loving it. Sadly I got 3 hours of sleep because I was so excited. Work tonight is going to be painful.

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1 minute ago, Stormhunter87 said:

Really feeling like the one nore'easter I experienced in DC. Loving it. Sadly I got 3 hours of sleep because I was so excited. Work tonight is going to be painful.

Luckily I managed 6 hours somehow haha

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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LOT Update at 9:50am

There are no major updates being made to the forecast this
morning. Targets of opportunity for the afternoon forecast
package will be refining snow totals:

(1) Between I-39 and I-355 where a local minima may materialize
between the heavier snow rates to our west and lake enhancement,
respectively

(2) Along the IL/WI border where persistent lift through the DGZ
may lead to fluffier snow ratios

(3) Along I-80 where a tight snow gradient is anticipated due to
the dry slot "squeezing" the DGZ northward, and

(4) After daybreak Tuesday as snow ratios increase and the upper-
level wave finally pulls through.

At this point the highest snow totals are expected across
lakeshore communities and especially Cook county where 4 to 8,
locally more, are probable. The steadiest snow rates, approaching
1"/hr, are expected from roughly 6 PM to midnight, with rates
gradually decreasing toward daybreak Tuesday. Snow rates may
remain heavy along the Lake Michigan shore through daybreak
Tuesday due to lake enhancement

 

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Intense band coming through Lincoln, ripping hard and flake size is even decent, visibility probably around 1/5 of a mile. I remember NAM last night only having around 3" by noon but I wouldn't be surprised to have 6" by then. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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2 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Intense band coming through Lincoln, ripping hard and flake size is even decent, visibility probably around 1/5 of a mile. I remember NAM last night only having around 3" by noon but I wouldn't be surprised to have 6" by then. 

You may have mentioned it before but do you know when the last double digit snowfall for Lincoln was? Best of Luck

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7 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Intense band coming through Lincoln, ripping hard and flake size is even decent, visibility probably around 1/5 of a mile. I remember NAM last night only having around 3" by noon but I wouldn't be surprised to have 6" by then. 

I measured a 1/2” about 15 minutes ago. We’re supposed to be 1-2” by noon and then rippage after that.

OAX put out an updated graphic a bit ago.

4686801F-7896-41D2-84BB-9A85B3716BB3.png

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2 minutes ago, Tony said:

Anyone have a link to a decent radar as most out there aren't very good

I really like the MyRadar app. Simple and straight forward.

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Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter


 


78.1"  Total snowfall


February Snowfall 32.5"


City salt usage  : 12,211 tons


Days of measurable snow  : 40

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The UK has followed the GFS with its driest run yet for east-central Iowa.  The drier models are showing a line from about Waterloo to CR/IC where it suddenly becomes drier to the east.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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25 minutes ago, Stormhunter87 said:

It's ripping here wow! I would guess at 1.5 - 2. Ahead of schedule!

Current radar looks great, those heavy returns in Northeast Kansas and Southeast Nebraska look like they will be rotating in and will help increase snowfall rates within the next couple of hours. 

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