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1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm


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Man, the Euro n GFS are in 2 different worlds. The winner is.......???!! Tbh, the GFS has scored b4, just recently earlier in the season iirc, so that kinda concerns me. Its 4 days away, so plenty of time to get this ironed out. Hopefully, it caves towards the Euro.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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20210125_133421.mp4 20210125_133531.mp4

Most snow my girls have seen except for February ‘19 when we had 16” on the ground from a couple big storms and that led to the catastrophic flooding in March... Found a nice drift to play in😊

No BS 12" here now minimum( measured several spots this was lowest) - did come up with 13" in spots

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Just give me 3" at this rate. Cover the ground so this can at least resemble winter here.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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GFS has trended a bit toward the Euro with wave 1, although still stronger.  The northern stream trough position is quite a bit different compared to this morning (flatter).

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS is still south with wave 2, but at least going in the right direction.

GFSv16 is actually farther south than the GFS now.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just now, bud2380 said:

Canadian significantly different this run. Still has the solid wave one. But not really a wave 2

Like previous GFS runs, the 00z Canadian digs the northern stream trough farther south into the US, which will suppress anything following wave 1.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GDPS - wave 1

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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UK - wave 1

The UK should be suppressed again with wave 2.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro - wave 1

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro looked less good initially, but it's coming in hot for Iowa.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Another impressive run from the 00z Euro, for mby and for many on here along I-80, you can't ask for a better outcome esp for those of us out east who have been neglected.  There are still a lot of those in the S MW who have been missed and in IN, but that may change for the next one.  Gosh, it's eye candy to see back to back runs showing a major for N IL, including the metro.  The Lehs signal continues to show up as well for NE IL and into SE WI.  Looks like all of S MI stays all SN as the RN/SN mix line creeps up to the border and stops right there.

1.png

 

00z EPS...

2.png

3.png

 

 

00z Euro Control...it takes a very similar track as the Euro Op but a tad farther S across parts of the region near KC where the comma head forms and then heads E through S IL/S IN.  This map is only through HR 120 and doesn't include the rest of the storm across the eastern Sub.

4.png

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Nice write-up from LOT wrt to the Euro/GEFS latest trends...

Quote

The second waves of precipitation may be more impactful as a low
pressure system from the Southern Plains tries to lift northward
toward the Great Lakes. WPC statistical cluster analysis points
toward the strength of an upper-level ridge in central Canada as
the key source of statistical variance among the combined
ECMWF/GFS/CMC ensemble membership. In other words, the strength of
the upper-level ridge in Canada differs among forecast models,
and will determine how far north the low pressure system can
track. Additionally, the cluster analysis shows that individual
model systems are more or less in their own camp. For example, the
CMC/ensemble members keeping the low well south of our area and
the normally trustworthy ECMWF/ensemble members showing path that
would lead to impactful wintry weather to some if not all of
northern Illinois and northwest Indiana (the GFS/ensemble members
fall in between). When looking at ensemble analyses over the past
24 hours (increasing our number of individual ensemble members
analyzed from 90 to 360), the forecast has remained fairly steady
with about 50% of all ensemble members leading to impactful wintry
weather in our neck of the woods (though a very modest trend
upward in precipitation amounts over our area can be noted). Over
the next few days, the upper-level players will be more readily
sampled which should lead to increasingly converging model
solutions. Keep in mind it`s never a bad time to make sure your
winter kit at home or in your car is stocked and ready to go.

 

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The last 5 runs from the GEFS are showing a distinct trend towards a comma head look in the central MW along with a juicier trend.  It's def heading towards the LRC and the Euro op.

1.gif

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Dear God those maps are incredible. Yes please.

Euro has wave 2 hitting Iowa Monday morning if I'm not mistaken? I'll be heading back from St Paul late Sunday so this would be a perfect scenario for me.

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

The last 5 runs from the GEFS are showing a distinct trend towards a comma head look in the central MW along with a juicier trend.  It's def heading towards the LRC and the Euro op.

1.gif

Good sign 

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Main wave moves in Friday or early Saturday on the west coast, which will determine the true outcome of the second wave. One thing is for sure, this boy has a ton of moisture w it.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Another impressive run from the 00z Euro, for mby and for many on here along I-80, you can't ask for a better outcome esp for those of us out east who have been neglected.  There are still a lot of those in the S MW who have been missed and in IN, but that may change for the next one.  Gosh, it's eye candy to see back to back runs showing a major for N IL, including the metro.  The Lehs signal continues to show up as well for NE IL and into SE WI.  Looks like all of S MI stays all SN as the RN/SN mix line creeps up to the border and stops right there.

1.png

 

00z EPS...

2.png

3.png

 

 

00z Euro Control...it takes a very similar track as the Euro Op but a tad farther S across parts of the region near KC where the comma head forms and then heads E through S IL/S IN.  This map is only through HR 120 and doesn't include the rest of the storm across the eastern Sub.

4.png

Euro staying its course last couple runs. Rumors have it that the 6z Euro is identical to the 0z run.

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2 hours ago, james1976 said:

Dear God those maps are incredible. Yes please.

Euro has wave 2 hitting Iowa Monday morning if I'm not mistaken? I'll be heading back from St Paul late Sunday so this would be a perfect scenario for me.

Your dual residency is proving to be quite nice so far this winter!  Things looking pretty good up here for Saturday. MPX holding off on a Watch for now, but that might change if today's model runs stay the course. 

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The GFS is making progress.  The northern trough is gradually being pulled back up into Canada, closer to what the Euro is showing.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Wave 2 on the GFS stays south.  The main difference between the Euro and GFS is the SLP placement.  The GFS has been showing it running along the Missouri/Arkansas border, where the Euro has it through central MO.  So until that resolves, there won't be any agreement in regard to snow placement between the two.  Euro is a little stronger as well.  

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS is making progress.  The northern trough is gradually being pulled back up into Canada, closer to what the Euro is showing.

If you look at the 500mb trough, it is trending away from a flatter wave into a more closed low...another tick N also as it deepens into the 990's...

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57 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Your dual residency is proving to be quite nice so far this winter!  Things looking pretty good up here for Saturday. MPX holding off on a Watch for now, but that might change if today's model runs stay the course. 

Haha I know right?! Was literally thinking that earlier😂

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Canadian is back north a bit.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

The last 5 runs from the GEFS are showing a distinct trend towards a comma head look in the central MW along with a juicier trend.  It's def heading towards the LRC and the Euro op.

1.gif

That's Tuesday morning right? Isn't that a lot slower by like a day than the Euro tho? Thought this was a Monday event over our way.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

That's Tuesday morning right? Isn't that a lot slower by like a day than the Euro tho? Thought this was a Monday event over our way.

It's a 24-hr precip accumulation so you have to consider that as well..but ya, its a tad slower as well..

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27 minutes ago, Tom said:

If you look at the 500mb trough, it is trending away from a flatter wave into a more closed low...another tick N also as it deepens into the 990's...

Certainly positive trends and that LOT disco nails the issue wrt all the possible scenarios. Models going to dance around like always until the final 48 hrs when sampling is secured. The LRC is going to prove a very useful tool if this comes to fruition.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z GGEM took a big step towards the Euro...develops a strong SLP tracking through the S MW/OHV...

gem_asnow_ncus_21.png

GEM's going to keep Indiana Peeps dreaming. I'm still thinking I-80 will be the southern cut-off of decent amounts. Doubt it is much south of that line.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Euro is still by far the furthest north model.  The Canadian had a great run yesterday, before flipping back further south.  It's still significantly further south than the Euro.  And the 00z Euro actually shifted further north from the 12z.  So I don't think there is much disagreement of a 2nd wave, simply where it will setup at this point.  I'm hoping the Euro holds serve (actually a slight nudge south would be great for me).  I still trust it the most at this time frame.  Historically the Euro performs very well within 5 days, but certainly has been wrong from time to time.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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UK should come north as the northern stream trough gets pulled back up into Canada more this run.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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UK is MUCH farther north.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Ukie= good sign. It's overall a stingy model when it comes to precip.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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UK

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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  • Tom changed the title to 1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm
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