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1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm


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20210125_133421.mp4 20210125_133531.mp4

Most snow my girls have seen except for February ‘19 when we had 16” on the ground from a couple big storms and that led to the catastrophic flooding in March... Found a nice drift to play in😊

No BS 12" here now minimum( measured several spots this was lowest) - did come up with 13" in spots

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GEM,GFS, and ICON have the ULL hitting KC sometime Monday.(Good snow amounts as of today's 12z runs) Temperatures are yet again very borderline and immediately turn warm after the storm. So, another very wet snow should it happen. Still good chance KC will be all rain. We'll see how this trends.  

 

Data after this storm still looks very warm relative to averages. KC is going to finish the second month of meteorological winter 6.5-8 degrees  above average. I wonder if that has ever happened.

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The Euro has always been weakest with the first wave and it's now even weaker.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro going to be south with wave 2.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The northern stream is a fair amount more suppressed over the lakes, so the result is this.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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And West Michigan is out of it.  Just as predicted.  GFS sniffed it out much quicker.  Should have known the Euro was wrong again.  It's been trash outside of 3 days.  

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2 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

And West Michigan is out of it.  Just as predicted.  GFS sniffed it out much quicker.  Should have known the Euro was wrong again.  It's been trash outside of 3 days.  

GFS is not even close to being right. It has been playing catch up for days

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The northern half of Iowa through southern Wisconsin needs Canada to play ball.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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7 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

And West Michigan is out of it.  Just as predicted.  GFS sniffed it out much quicker.  Should have known the Euro was wrong again.  It's been trash outside of 3 days.  

Looks pretty darn good to me

imageproxy.jpg

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Just now, Tony said:

Looks pretty darn good to me

imageproxy.jpg

I'm bitter, I'm just north of all that.  And the other models are a bit south yet.  Except the south shift to continue.  Euro will be further and further south no doubt.  

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5 minutes ago, Bellona said:

Ok, we gotta start praying for a 100 mile shift to the north now. Haha

I'm literally in the screw hole between both waves. Still a few days to go. At least the TC looks decent for wave 1 so im hoping that pans out at least since I'll be up there.

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This one has a close shave south written all over it. 

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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5 minutes ago, james1976 said:

I'm literally in the screw hole between both waves. Still a few days to go. At least the TC looks decent for wave 1 so im hoping that pans out at least since I'll be up there.

Me too. I live between Hwy 63 and Highway 20. In no way would I ever believe someone was going to get 20+ inches anyway, but to miss north and south in a matter of days would really suck.

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Oh I’m not. Looking like this is going to be a sizeable storm for someone, though I’m not sure that’s us. If I had to place bets, I’d go Burlington to Gary to Toledo in the max axis

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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6 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Oh I’m not. Looking like this is going to be a sizeable storm for someone, though I’m not sure that’s us. If I had to place bets, I’d go Burlington to Gary to Toledo in the max axis

The good news is I will be in Toledo monday!

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I knew that being in the Euro's bullseye yesterday wasn't good! This needs to come back north a bit. But seeing that the Euro came more in line with the other models this run, I don't know.  I guess I'll ride the Ukie for now 😒

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9 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Oh I’m not. Looking like this is going to be a sizeable storm for someone, though I’m not sure that’s us. If I had to place bets, I’d go Burlington to Gary to Toledo in the max axis

thinking your correct.  just hope we can maintain north side and get some good ratios.  

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18 minutes ago, Bellona said:

Me too. I live between Hwy 63 and Highway 20. In no way would I ever believe someone was going to get 20+ inches anyway, but to miss north and south in a matter of days would really suck.

South side of Waterloo?

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

UK

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

GRR talking WWA event after seeing the UK.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(j/k)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Not saying cuz iam in the pink, but that blend is probably the way to go. Thanks for sharing  Bud!! Keep sharing that one when/if you can.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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12z Euro Control...I'd say about 80% of the members are all showing a widespread 6"+ "share the wealth" snow storm from 

1.png

 

12z EPS close up for the Lower Lakes...

2.png

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My PM Package from NOAA is not too impressed w this storm for my area. Its all up in the air as far as NOAA is concerned:

If there is a current "trend" in model solutions for the 12z cycle,
it would be weighted toward a more southern solution that bypasses
(or brushes) the area in terms of snowfall from the shortwave
eventually tracking into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night.
Confidence, however, remains low at this point. The trouble with
this will be the sharp gradient that appears will set up on the
northern edge of the snow shield this system will produce as
relatively minor differences in the track with equate to large
swings in potential snowfall accumulations.

 

Note: sampling tomorrow or Sat is key.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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For those of you a little farther north, you are not out of the heavy stuff by any means. I expect the snow shield to expand as time goes on. Plenty of moisture with this wave and Euro seemed a bit stingy compared to the UK.

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4-8" in the point for Saturday/night....although 3-6" is more likely at this point. Looking at the soundings for 0z Sunday, the DGZ appears to be pretty dang deep. 850s around -10C. This looks like a fluffy snow, something we really haven't seen yet this winter. 

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DMX thoughts on the bigger system.

Some light wintry precip may linger into Sunday, but then the atmosphere
quickly reloads as a lead shortwave ejects from the mean western
conus trough. There remains significant differences between the
latest deterministic Euro and GFS both in track and intensity.
GEFS mean leans more toward the more northerly and robust Euro.
PoPs were boosted above the NBM output for Sunday night into
Monday across southern into central Iowa to reflect increasing
confidence in another round of snow moving through. The
significant model spread hinders confidence in possible snowfall
amounts, but moderate to heavy snow is not out of the question.

 

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21 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

DMX thoughts on the bigger system.



Some light wintry precip may linger into Sunday, but then the atmosphere
quickly reloads as a lead shortwave ejects from the mean western
conus trough. There remains significant differences between the
latest deterministic Euro and GFS both in track and intensity.
GEFS mean leans more toward the more northerly and robust Euro.
PoPs were boosted above the NBM output for Sunday night into
Monday across southern into central Iowa to reflect increasing
confidence in another round of snow moving through. The
significant model spread hinders confidence in possible snowfall
amounts, but moderate to heavy snow is not out of the question.

 

More from LOT
So again, to sum it up, it`s increasingly likely
that we`re entering into an active period of wintry weather. Stay
tuned for latest updates, in particular for late Sunday night-
Monday night, which may have the ingredients to potentially make
it largest and most impactful event in at least a couple winters,
if everything comes together.
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