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1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm


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20210125_133421.mp4 20210125_133531.mp4

Most snow my girls have seen except for February ‘19 when we had 16” on the ground from a couple big storms and that led to the catastrophic flooding in March... Found a nice drift to play in😊

No BS 12" here now minimum( measured several spots this was lowest) - did come up with 13" in spots

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Somewhat expected- 18Z Euro at hr 90 is S and weaker than 12Z.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Obviously things can change - lots of time left. Maybe it's slowing down also,( I can only see out to HR 90)  but I doubt it. Blocking appears to be winning out too much.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Appreciate you guys and all the updates. Crossing my fingers on this one's potential. Don't know how I feel on being in the bullseye 3 days out. I have a feeling this thread is going to be on fire the next few days.

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47 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro baby steppin south.

1611662400-klEFV7TikaY.png

First off- it seems that 6"+ band is getting thinner and thinner from run to run. Maybe 40 miles wide? Hopefully that trend stops with 00Z. Also- let's just say 18Z Euro happens. Mason City / Grand Forks continue their misery. Unreal how they keep getting missed.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Icon continues S shift on 2nd wave. Clinton is only one on here ( that I know)  that gets accumulation.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The ICON is not a top model, but a significant fade back southeast isn't good.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I'd expect tonights  GFS and CMC to continue to hold S or even move more SE and if they do- so will the UKie and Euro and it's pretty much Katy Bar the Door.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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6 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Icon continues S shift on 2nd wave. Clinton is only one on here ( that I know)  that gets accumulation.

Less than an inch for me, very weak run by the ICON.  The 18z run gave me 5-7 lol

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Nice little curveball on GFS--- really lingers snow in C.IA from 1st wave. Or maybe 2nd wave further N and qucker? Interesting devlopment.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2nd wave is further NW on GFS compared to 18Z-- it really never stops snowing in C.IA for nearly 48 hours.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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CMC with a slight shift NW as well. Not as much as GFS- but a good sign that the S trend may have stopped.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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UK coming in now.  I'd really like to see it hold onto its morning nw solution.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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UK is another crusher, but south of 12z.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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C'mon, blocking.  Relax just a wee bit more, please.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Really would like to see that NWS Blend of models for 00Z.....

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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GEFS 24 HR precip about a 75 mile shift NW from 18Z in IA

18Z- gfs-ens_apcpn24_eus_14.png00Z -gfs-ens_apcpn24_eus_13.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Euro is slower and a bit back north.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Well, the read I'm getting from tonight's 00z suite is the fact that we are now seeing some consistency in a general swath of heavy snow from near KC/N MO/S IA/N IL/N IN/S MI.  I'd like to see tomorrow's 12z suite show another run before getting to excited but I do like where I sit ATM.  The 00z Euro held serve with nearly an identical swath of snow but tempered the snow totals which were just not realistic in parts of IA compared to yesterday's 12z.

Gosh, when was the last time the south side of Chicago got hit with a major snowstorm and N side was on the edge?  It has to be during the Feb '18 Blitz when the SW burbs got 12-16"+.  @indianajohn and the others in N IN are probably pretty stoked with the latest model runs.

1.png

 

2.png

 

 

00z Euro Control...

3.png

 

00z EPS...

4.png

 

5.png

 

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Dmx liking the Euro-(Round two)

After a brief break in precipitation midday Sunday, round two
arrives quickly with a shortwave ejecting out of the southwest
quickly on the heels of the departing system. Recent model runs have
come into better agreement, however there is still enough spread to
decrease forecast confidence going into this period. The
deterministic Euro continues with a northerly solution with moderate
to heavy precipitation across central and southern Iowa while the
GFS remains further south. Important to note here, however is
that both the Euro and GFS ensembles have trended in the direction
of the deterministic Euro solution in the northerly track. It
also appears likely that a wintry mix across the south will be
likely again across the south within the warm sector of the
cyclone. Though confidence is not high, the recent trends within
ensembles have helped narrow the range of possibilities with this
second round Sunday evening through Monday.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3 minutes ago, james1976 said:

I wonder if that watch will be expanded thru the TC. MSP calling for a widespread 3-6". Should end up in an advisory at the least.

Solid advisory-level event. There really doesn't appear to be any banding with the snow so I wouldn't think there will be any surprises with higher totals locally. It's gonna snow and we will enjoy it! Safe travels up here! 

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06z Euro holding serve for 2nd wave.*** Slight tint N *** edit

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Nice read from NOAA w this potential Winterstorm:

The second system of perhaps greater interest will generate as a
Pacific Wave out of Baja California ejects into the TX/OK and
interacts with a baroclinic zone. A developing low pressure system
will push northeast into the Ohio Valley late Monday into early
Tuesday. The ECMWF and the vast majority of the EPS suite has locked
in on this solution over the past 24 hours, where the GEFS is just
now converging on this solution with the latest 00Z run, placing the
cyclone center over the Ohio Valley by 00Z Tuesday, alongside the
EPS SLP average. If this pans out, Cluster Phase Space Analysis of
similar solutions show some interesting trowal dynamics over southern
Michigan, where a strong u component of the wind lines up around
Metro Detroit down into the Ohio Valley -- highlighting an area of
interest where strong forcing and efficient moisture transport line
up. The WPC extended winter weather outlook highlights this exact
area, showing a 30-50 percent chance of exceeding .25 inch liquid
equivalent of snow. 
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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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15 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Any chance this comes north about 50-75 miles?  If not, I'm out.

I M Out GIF by memecandy

What do you care, you will be in Toledo. Enjoy it there!

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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  • Tom changed the title to 1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm
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