Tom Posted January 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Clinton said: Here ya go. Very nice... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Hoping the models get a better handle on the energy as it tracks through the S MW into the OHV as most of the models had it weakening a bit once it got to IN/OH.Β The 06z EPS mean looks better and keeps the ribbon of 6"+ at 10:1 farther east. Keep this trend going! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 16 minutes ago, Niko said: The 12z RGEM has moved NW. Nice progress. Smashes KC leaves me high and dry. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Lets keep this up!!! Been a minute since the last time we in northwest Indiana had anything worthwhile to track!! Β 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z GFS coming in stronger and touch NW... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 GFS just doesn't get very impressive with the snow shield on the NW side of the low until it gets into IL and IN.Β More of a long duration light snow in Iowa.Β Still further south than the Euro. Β Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 @Tom Enjoy it! Chicago gets crushed! 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaΒ Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9"Β BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, indianajohn said: Lets keep this up!!! Been a minute since the last time we in northwest Indiana had anything worthwhile to track!! Β You are looking golden so far. Hope ya score bigly! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaΒ Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9"Β BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z GFS coming in stronger and touch NW... Β 4 minutes ago, Niko said: @Tom Enjoy it! Chicago gets crushed! And that's 10:1 Good to see GFS finally getting some amperage on the main wave. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)Β Β Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Β Β Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Β Dec: 7.5Β Jan: 31.7 Feb:Β 6.0 Mar: 4.1Β Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2"Β (Harrison):Β 2023-24 = xx.x"Β Avg = 45.0"Β (KDTW):Β 2022-23 = 33.5"Β Β 2021-22 = 35.6"Β Β Β Β Avg = 49.7"Β (KRMY):Β 2020-21 = 36.2"Β Β 2019-20 = 48.0"Β Β 2018-19 =Β 56.1"Β Β 2017-18 =Β 68.3"Β Β Β 2016-17 =Β 52"Β Β Β 2015-16 =Β 57.4"Β Β Β 2014-15 =Β 55.3"Β Β Β 2013-14 =Β 100.6"Β (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Β Β 2012-13 =Β 47.2"Β Β Β 2011-12 =Β 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, jaster220 said: Β And that's 10:1 Good to see GFS finally getting some amperage on the main wave. Exactly..... Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaΒ Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9"Β BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Niko said: What do you care, you will be in Toledo. Enjoy it there! True, might have to delay coming home Monday evening until Tuesday.Β Β 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, Niko said: @Tom Enjoy it! Chicago gets crushed! To quote a LOT met elsewhere regarding the 12z GFS: βTotalΒ toss on the verbatim depiction of the heavy qpf/snow swath on the GFS. That's a great surface and 700 mb low track for the metro.Β PatternΒ recognition and textbook meteorology >> raw model output in this case.β 4 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Stacsh said: True, might have to delay coming home Monday evening until Tuesday.Β Β Excellent move! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaΒ Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9"Β BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Canadian starts to come further north with wave 2, but then flattens out.Β It will be interesting to see if the Euro and Ukie continue with their further north solutions.Β Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z Canadian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 27 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Β And that's 10:1 Good to see GFS finally getting some amperage on the main wave. Iβm digging the Lake Enhancement signal...esp at this range from the GFS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Tom said: Iβm digging the Lake Enhancement signal...esp at this range from the GFS. That will be a big bonus if it does materialize but liking what I am seeing so far. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z GFS mean 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 53 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z GFS coming in stronger and touch NW... Still playing catch up I see GFS. The snow output on the NW flank looks really strange and don't buy it one bit. I'm sure by maybe tomorrow it will have a better clueΒ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Tony said: Still playing catch up I see GFS. The snow output on the NW flank looks really strange and don't buy it one bit. I'm sure by maybe tomorrow it will have a better clueΒ Not very well versed with the physics of H7 but what I have been reading from other Mets is that looking at the run of the 12z GFS, north and west of its position should be getting just pounded with very heavy snow. Maybe someone can comment on this with more knowledge than myself Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 17 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z GFS mean Now thatβs what Iβm talking about...caving towards the Euro I see... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 I think sampling starts today or tomorrow as that piece of energy enters the PC shoreline. That is when everything will start falling in place. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaΒ Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9"Β BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 I heard the GLβs currently are at record low ice for the time of year. Β IΒ believe Β it was at 1.3% coverage. Β Thatβs aΒ wild stat and one that is a result of the warm winter so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Expect the UK to be south.Β The northern stream is pressed southward a bit more than last night. I am not optimistic about wave 2 for my area. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Β Β Β '21-22: 27.1"Β Β Β '20-21: 52.5"Β Β Β '19-20: 36.2"Β Β Β Β '18-19: 50.2"Β Β Β Β '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 I like the position of the "Low." 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaΒ Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9"Β BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 UKIE went WAY south Β 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Now if the Euro ends up going south then I will be getting worried as it has been fairly steadyΒ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 lots of changes to come yet.Β gonna be interesting.Β im still 50/50 on wave two for mby. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 That "High" to the north of us in Canada needs to move and weaken a bit. Way too strong attm. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaΒ Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9"Β BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 39 minutes ago, Tom said: I heard the GLβs currently are at record low ice for the time of year. Β IΒ believe Β it was at 1.3% coverage. Β Thatβs aΒ wild stat and one that is a result of the warm winter so far. Here is the current great lake ice cover https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=l&ext=ice&type=N&hr=00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Accu-weather has mby in the 3-6" range........not too sure about that, could be less--could be more. Still 4 days out! Β Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaΒ Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9"Β BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Cmon Euro.Β Don't bail on me now.Β Β Β 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 37 minutes ago, Niko said: That "High" to the north of us in Canada needs to move and weaken a bit. Way too strong attm. If it wasn't for that High this would be a rainer for most of us so need to move it a little farther north 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Euro Wave 1 Β 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Tony said: If it wasn't for that High this would be a rainer for most of us so need to move it a little farther north As long as it weakens a little, whether it goes north or east is fine. It is just too darn strong presently, giving this storm a hard time moving north. Tbh, I am surprised the models have it this far north so far. This should be Clinton's storm, giving him an all out heavy snowstorm, if its to get suppressed completely and we get zero snowfall. That could be a possibility. Hopefully, Euro stays its course and not budge. Keep an eye on sampling! Its key to all of this. BTW: are you sure you did not mean for the HP to move east, instead of "North." I have never seen a HP area move north. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaΒ Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9"Β BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 euro very similar to 00z through 78 hours Β Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Not too bad... it didn't jump south. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Β Β Β '21-22: 27.1"Β Β Β '20-21: 52.5"Β Β Β '19-20: 36.2"Β Β Β Β '18-19: 50.2"Β Β Β Β '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Snow shield actually inched north in Iowa.Β Β Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 System peaks over ne KS/nw MO, then weakens as the precip shield lifts north through the I-80 corridor. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Β Β Β '21-22: 27.1"Β Β Β '20-21: 52.5"Β Β Β '19-20: 36.2"Β Β Β Β '18-19: 50.2"Β Β Β Β '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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