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1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm


Tom

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Hoping the models get a better handle on the energy as it tracks through the S MW into the OHV as most of the models had it weakening a bit once it got to IN/OH.Β  The 06z EPS mean looks better and keeps the ribbon of 6"+ at 10:1 farther east. Keep this trend going!

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10 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

Lets keep this up!!! Been a minute since the last time we in northwest Indiana had anything worthwhile to track!!

Β 

You are looking golden so far. Hope ya score bigly!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaΒ 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"Β  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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10 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z GFS coming in stronger and touch NW...

Β 

4 minutes ago, Niko said:

@Tom

Enjoy it! Chicago gets crushed!

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021012212/096/sn10_acc.us_state_il_in.png&key=b391bee7314e3e8cdc8e98656a9aa93653ece374fca4014e18afbbdf15404caf

And that's 10:1

Good to see GFS finally getting some amperage on the main wave. πŸ‘

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)Β Β Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Β  Β Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Β Dec: 7.5Β Jan: 31.7 Feb:Β 6.0 Mar: 4.1Β Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"Β  (Harrison):Β 2023-24 = xx.x"Β 

Avg = 45.0"Β  (KDTW):Β 2022-23 = 33.5"Β  Β 2021-22 = 35.6"Β Β Β Β 

Avg = 49.7"Β  (KRMY):Β 2020-21 = 36.2"Β  Β 2019-20 = 48.0"Β  Β 2018-19 =Β 56.1"Β  Β 2017-18 =Β 68.3"Β  Β Β 2016-17 =Β 52"Β  Β Β 2015-16 =Β 57.4"Β  Β Β 2014-15 =Β 55.3"Β  Β Β 2013-14 =Β 100.6"Β (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Β Β 2012-13 =Β 47.2"Β  Β Β 2011-12 =Β 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Β 

And that's 10:1

Good to see GFS finally getting some amperage on the main wave. πŸ‘

Exactly.....πŸ‘

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaΒ 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"Β  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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10 minutes ago, Niko said:

@Tom

Enjoy it! Chicago gets crushed!

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021012212/096/sn10_acc.us_state_il_in.png&key=b391bee7314e3e8cdc8e98656a9aa93653ece374fca4014e18afbbdf15404caf

To quote a LOT met elsewhere regarding the 12z GFS:

β€œTotalΒ toss on the verbatim depiction of the heavy qpf/snow swath on the GFS. That's a great surface and 700 mb low track for the metro.Β PatternΒ recognition and textbook meteorology >> raw model output in this case.”

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...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

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2 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

True, might have to delay coming home Monday evening until Tuesday.Β Β 

Excellent move!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaΒ 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"Β  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 minute ago, Tony said:

Still playing catch up I see GFS. The snow output on the NW flank looks really strange and don't buy it one bit. I'm sure by maybe tomorrow it will have a better clueΒ 

Not very well versed with the physics of H7 but what I have been reading from other Mets is that looking at the run of the 12z GFS, north and west of its position should be getting just pounded with very heavy snow. Maybe someone can comment on this with more knowledge than myself

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I think sampling starts today or tomorrow as that piece of energy enters the PC shoreline. That is when everything will start falling in place.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaΒ 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"Β  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Expect the UK to be south.Β  The northern stream is pressed southward a bit more than last night. :(

I am not optimistic about wave 2 for my area.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"Β  Β  Β  '21-22: 27.1"Β  Β  Β  '20-21: 52.5"Β  Β  Β  '19-20: 36.2"Β  Β  Β Β '18-19: 50.2"Β  Β  Β Β '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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That "High" to the north of us in Canada needs to move and weaken a bit. Way too strong attm.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaΒ 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"Β  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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39 minutes ago, Tom said:

I heard the GL’s currently are at record low ice for the time of year. Β IΒ believe Β it was at 1.3% coverage. Β That’s aΒ wild stat and one that is a result of the warm winter so far.

Here is the current great lake ice cover

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=l&ext=ice&type=N&hr=00

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Accu-weather has mby in the 3-6" range........not too sure about that, could be less--could be more. Still 4 days out!

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/StormOutlook.png?w=632

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2C-3.png?w=632

Β 

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaΒ 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"Β  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, Tony said:

If it wasn't for that High this would be a rainer for most of us so need to move it a little farther north

As long as it weakens a little, whether it goes north or east is fine. It is just too darn strong presently, giving this storm a hard time moving north. Tbh, I am surprised the models have it this far north so far. This should be Clinton's storm, giving him an all out heavy snowstorm, if its to get suppressed completely and we get zero snowfall. That could be a possibility. Hopefully, Euro stays its course and not budge. Keep an eye on sampling! Its key to all of this.

BTW: are you sure you did not mean for the HP to move east, instead of "North." I have never seen a HP area move north.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaΒ 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"Β  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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System peaks over ne KS/nw MO, then weakens as the precip shield lifts north through the I-80 corridor.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"Β  Β  Β  '21-22: 27.1"Β  Β  Β  '20-21: 52.5"Β  Β  Β  '19-20: 36.2"Β  Β  Β Β '18-19: 50.2"Β  Β  Β Β '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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