1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm

[BMT]

i will take that.

[bud2380]

very strong winds

 

[Tony]

Iowa looks good on this run. N IL is ok but not the numbers we were seeing earlier.

[Tom]

12z Euro...I will gladly take 12"+...Lehs signal looking promising...

[Tony]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...I will gladly take 12""...Lehs signal looking promising...

I guess but that 20" in Iowa looks appealing

[Tom]

12 minutes ago, Tony said:

I guess but that 20" in Iowa looks appealing

Can't be greedy...anything above 6"+ is a win, esp in this winter...

[whatitdo]

 

33 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...I will gladly take 12"+...Lehs signal looking promising...

Can someone explain difference between kuchera vs 10:1 to a newbie like me? Trying to understand the circumstances when one is used vs the other

[jaster220]

20 minutes ago, Tom said:

Can't be greedy...anything above 6"+ is a win, esp in this winter...

Still disappointed to see it lose so much mojo for SMI. What happened to it maintaining strength like in prior LRC cycle??

[Clinton]

12z Euro Mean

[Clinton]

12z Euro ensembles

[Niko]

I'll accept this and run!

[Niko]

My thinking right now for mby is that unless this HP to the north of me weakens and moves a bit, there is a slight possibility that Detroit (especially north of there where I am) see's no snow at all. Could be a complete miss. Very sharp cutoff line. Still 4 days to go.

[Jayhawker85]

im cheering for the HP to the north is stronger and keeps the 2nd wave stronger and to the south. Canadian High do your work!

[mlgamer]

I'm in the usual spot...could be rain, mixed precip, snow or all of the above. Just quietly waiting until we get closer and have better model consensus before getting too excited.

[Niko]

18z NAM is North! Not by much though.

[Niko]

Latest thinking from NOAA:

While confidence in not particularly high as of yet on how the
interaction with this wave with the northern stream baroclinic zone
will evolve, medium range model solutions seem to be converging on a
track that supports a relatively narrow stripe of heavy snow over
the northern Ohio Valley into parts of far southern lower Michigan.
As was mentioned yesterday, the gradient between little/no snow and
significant 4-6" or more snowfall will be very tight so small changes
to the track of this system will lead to widely varying snowfall
potential. Hence, the continued low confidence even knowing the
system will be in close proximity to the area by late Monday/Monday
night.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Still disappointed to see it lose so much mojo for SMI. What happened to it maintaining strength like in prior LRC cycle??

Not all cycles behave the same and its up to nature to decide on what she wants to do.  I still think this storm has enough strength that you'll do well.

[Clinton]

18z NAM is to good to be true for mby.  

[Niko]

3 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Funny.  It's actually slightly further south as you head west to my neck of the woods.

Here ya go...

not exactly sure where you are located, but I think Clinton does well w this.

[Niko]

Just now, someweatherdude said:

Oh, I know.  I'm not disagreeing.  Just funny how it can shift south in one area, and pivot so it's further north in another area.  Like an old fashioned teeter-totter. 

I hear ya...I agree!

[GDR]

Going blind with the nam this far out could bite you

[Niko]

9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z NAM is to good to be true for mby.  

Looking good Clinton! Tbh, I think the NAM is good for short range modeling, but nevertheless, never hurts to be looking sweet on models. Hope you score big-time!

[indianajohn]

Hahaha we all have been on this forum for years and we still get all excited like a little kid when there is the potential of a Winter Storm!! Especially if they are promising 10" of snow since we don't get many storms that produce 10" or more.

[Niko]

TWC

* I think I like where I am sitting attm!

[FV-Mike]

LOT's afternoon AFD starting to get me excited. Here is a little portion. 

The main message we`d like to convey is that while there is
uncertainty inherent to this particular forecast and generally all
winter system forecasts at this time range, confidence continues
to increase in a potential winter storm impacting the area. This
includes an increasing chance for a swath of several inches of
snow, with distinct potential for 6"+ of snow, and certainly not
out of the realm for well over 6" if ingredients come together to
support heavy mesoscale f-gen driven banding, considering that
well above normal moisture content (unseasonably high PWAT/mixing
ratios for a winter system). Snow forecast was leaned toward the
thus far quite consistent ECMWF suite and also accounted for a
large northward jump in the 12z GEFS mean and many of its members.

Regarding our snowfall forecast, we feel that the chance that our
entire CWA is missed by moderate to significant snowfall amounts
is decreasing. That said, there are multiple competing factors to
this forecast, with subtle changes of key players ultimately
modulating where the highest snowfall amounts occur in a north to
south range and peak snowfall amounts. Our current thinking
regarding the broader area in which narrower east to west banding
is liable to set up with several to 6+" of snow is fairly close in
line with WPC`s Day 4 Snow/Sleet outlook and placement of 30-50%
and 50-70% contours, which will help drive our snow forecast
message.

 

[clintbeed1993]

Nws Kansas City had one of the most pathetic discussions I've ever seen..it's like they looked at the GFS only. Just god awful. At least take a stab at amounts! Say something! I'm reading you for insight..YAWN

[Tony]

18Z GFS lot farther north and more in line now with the Euro. Lots of double digit totals

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

[CentralNebWeather]

18z RGEM. Hello. 

[Tony]

42 minutes ago, Tony said:

18Z GFS lot farther north and more in line now with the Euro. Lots of double digit totals

Throw some 35kt-40kt winds into this equation and you have a....

[bud2380]

RGEM looks like it nudged north 

[james1976]

Just got to St Paul. Advisory up here for 4-6" tomorrow to tomorrow night!

[Niko]

I am assuming sampling has started.

[Grizzcoat]

18Z Euro is N in IA.

[Grizzcoat]

18Z Euro-  a row or two counties in IA N compared to 12Z

[Grizzcoat]

For comparison - here's the 12Z-

[hlcater]

The 18z euro really is something to behold. Wow.

[Grizzcoat]

Personally- and I think others on here would agree with me- this has the potential to miss many on here to the N. Still too much time and that was a REALLY big adjustment N

[MKEstorm]

I'm hoping the 18z GFS and Euro are trendsetters!