james1976 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Would a further N trend on wave 1 help pull wave 2 northward? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 I suppose in this warm winter this will be the best we can muster on the old WPC d3-7 maps. "Heavy Precip" 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 4-6 with iso 7" now in the advisory for the TC 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, james1976 said: Would a further N trend on wave 1 help pull wave 2 northward? I dont think so either way. Wave 1 is really a totally separate system- more like a clipper. "Wave 2" is also significantly later than 1--- around 36 hours or more. My .02 is too far apart to interact much if at all. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said: I dont think so either way. Wave 1 is really a totally separate system- more like a clipper. "Wave 2" is also significantly later than 1--- around 36 hours or more. My .02 is too far apart to interact much if at all. I'm feeling that. I've noticed the GFS has trended toward the Euro with the gap between both waves. GFS had em connected couple days ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Euro wave 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 00z Euro is a good bump nw from the 12z for southeast Nebraska, but no change for areas farther east. Once the system begins to shear out, the precip shield quickly collapses. This run is actually south of the 18z for many of us. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Euro Kuchera- still snowing in spots- 2 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Fully sampled? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Missed by 20 miles lmao. I've had a pretty good winter....bound to happen 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 17 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Euro Kuchera- still snowing in spots- I'd take this in a minute, but probably be more like 7 inches. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Bet we probably see watches issued by Saturday afternoon/evening for Monday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 00z Euro...holding steady for N IL and the Lower Lakes region...it does appear that the wave weakens as it heads farther east but is slow to exit the region and hangs back some precip over the area which allows for farther accumulation. This system is loaded with precip. Snowfall totals for N IL bumped up a bit more and possibly due to colder 850's/2m temps. I did notice that the 2m temps don't get above 30F for the duration of the event for Chicago and nearly 30+ hours of NE winds off the lake. This is shaping up to be one of those golden storm opportunities that tap into multiple ways for maximum snow potential into NE IL. For example, this run shows it snowing for 30+ hrs into NE IL and allows for maximum Lehs/LES. I understand this is just 1 run but the consistency is keeping me excited about the potential. Been a while since many of us around here enjoyed a legit winter storm. 00z Euro Control... 00z EPS...trending towards a more widespread significant winter storm from the Plains to the Lakes...#sharethewealth 4 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 That north shift continues. Not sure how much more we see of that but it won’t take much for us to be out the game either. Never the best feeling in the bullseye 2 days out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, centralweather44 said: That north shift continues. Not sure how much more we see of that but it won’t take much for us to be out the game either. Never the best feeling in the bullseye 2 days out. Lincoln is in about as good a spot as you can get for this one. I'm on the outside of the trends now sitting down In St Joe. Looks like this place will defeat from the jaws of victory ONCE AGAIN. Unbelievable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 RDPS looks overdone as usual. But it's placement seems on par with most others. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 06z GFS...still showing a nice hit for N IL...Lehs signal continues to enhance totals lakeside... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Oax Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 6z CMC- shifting N also- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 06Z Euro Kuchera- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Maybe a 25-50 mile wabble here or there- but things are getting locked in with system being sampled now. You can see things congealing , though some models and the ultimate result still pending- but it's getting closer. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Raw #'s for just NW of DSM-- that's some serious QPF along with rather cold 850's ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LAT = 41.60 LON = -93.88 06Z JAN23 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 06Z 23-JAN -10.6 -6.3 1029 65 50 550 528 SAT 12Z 23-JAN -8.8 -5.0 1028 53 78 552 530 SAT 18Z 23-JAN -4.3 -4.1 1026 41 74 0.01 552 533 SUN 00Z 24-JAN -2.4 -3.8 1020 47 98 0.00 551 536 SUN 06Z 24-JAN -1.7 -5.0 1018 58 95 0.03 551 537 SUN 12Z 24-JAN -2.1 -3.8 1019 65 62 0.00 550 536 SUN 18Z 24-JAN -0.1 -3.3 1021 64 46 0.00 551 535 MON 00Z 25-JAN -3.5 -4.0 1020 84 56 0.00 551 536 MON 06Z 25-JAN -4.2 -3.1 1019 81 61 0.00 551 536 MON 12Z 25-JAN -4.1 -1.3 1014 81 65 0.00 549 538 MON 18Z 25-JAN -5.1 -2.9 1011 83 95 0.09 545 537 TUE 00Z 26-JAN -4.7 -3.8 1009 86 98 0.40 542 536 TUE 06Z 26-JAN -5.5 -8.4 1011 87 97 0.35 541 532 TUE 12Z 26-JAN -5.8 -9.3 1013 87 98 0.13 539 529 TUE 18Z 26-JAN -6.3 -9.8 1018 86 96 0.12 541 527 WED 00Z 27-JAN -6.0 -9.7 1020 87 97 0.05 542 527 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 At least for much of Nebraska, you could add a Wave 3. NWS Hastings getting more concerned for Wave 2 using the Euro for the area as snow conference and chances are increasing. Yes. They then mentioned lingering snow until Wave 3 comes. Just like the Euro and Canadian are showing. Said headlines probably coming. Still mentioned NAM and GFS not as bullish yet. All valid points. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Folks in E.NE and IA - this is going to be AN epic week for snowfall. 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just looked at all my weather apps and totals keep increasing. Now my interest has been peaked. Could get rather exciting in this area Sunday night through Wednesday morning. Snow Day? Haven’t missed one minute this year in our school district for snow, ice, or Covid. Rather remarkable actually. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 My point forecast says 5-9” 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Looking at 1-2” here for tonight. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Seems 12z NAM and HRRR are trending better for CR area tonight. Maybe we will manage to get more than 1" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Latest model runs lifting the heavier axis of snow a bit father north. Now reaching parts of the TC. Liking the trends this morning. Good chance at reaching the higher end of the forecasted amounts. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 12z NAM. Only goes to 84 hours. Wave 3 is still in Southwest Kansas ready to move northeast, so add more inches later imo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Southern Iowa appears to be locked in. I'd like to see the snow band lift a bit more northward. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 @Clinton, you got the 06z EPS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 The RDPS is going crazy with totals. It just keeps snowing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, bud2380 said: The RDPS is going crazy with totals. It just keeps snowing. Wouldn’t you think these are overblown? Great to look at though. We just rarely ever see totals anywhere near these in the Central Plains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 It's too bad waves 1 and 2 could not overlap a bit more more. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 The GFS is holding. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 1 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The GFS is holding. A tick south for me. But Chicago gets pummeled. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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