December 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

18z GFS continues to show this system organize itself earlier which allows a better phase...Midwest/Lakes special still in the works.

[Niko]

This from Noaa:

 

CONDITIONS WILL BE
OTHERWISE DRY AND BENIGN UNTIL POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL PHASE WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM AND LIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LATEST GLOBAL SOLUTIONS STILL EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
IN TIMING...TRACK...AND INTENSITY. GIVEN THE CUT-OFF CHARACTER OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DURING MID WEEK...SLOWER AND FARTHER EAST
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED...WHICH GIVE THE GREAT LAKES A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNOW THAN RAIN BY SATURDAY.

 

Lets see what happens. We are still a week away, so anything is possible. The positive sign to this is that the potential at least exist for snow, whereas this month, the potential was zero throughout the whole entire month! Unreal!!!!

 

Least snowy December's of all time here in my area. Its unheard of.

[james1976]

Im liking the GFS is staying consistent.

[james1976]

Wanna see what the system a few days later brings too. GFS has also been consistent with a system coming out of the Rockies across the plains and lower lakes.

[Money]

Parallel GFS is north now too

 

HR 168

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122718/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_29.png

[Tom]

Wanna see what the system a few days later brings too. GFS has also been consistent with a system coming out of the Rockies across the plains and lower lakes.

Things are going to get very active soon.  Pacific storm train will continue to hit the west coast and with more arctic air in toe, there are going to be a lot of areas in the central CONUS with snow chances.  The split flow pattern that will develop in the Pacific is going to work its magic next month.  Now that we will have arctic air around (unlike this month), things will become very interesting.  I think many areas will make up their snow deficits by Week 2 in January, maybe even at a surplus.

[Tom]

NYE around here is going to feel about as cold as it felt like in November.  After being in AZ and temps here near 50F the past couple days, it's going to feel like a smack in the face by Ol' Man Winter.

[Scott26]

I made a thread for the potential New Years weekend storm. Models are in good agreement for something big in this time frame so I decided to go for it.

[Tom]

The LES setup Monday night in NE IL is looking intriguing.  I saw Phil Schwartz's in-house model and it painted up to 2" in parts of Lake, Cook, DuPage counties...even Will county gets in on the action.  When a model suggest that amount of snow this far out, I have find it underestimates the amount of snow that may fall.  Looks like a 2-4" event if we can get that NNE wind to maintain itself long enough on this side of the lake.  

[Tom]

From Phil Schwarz...

[tbone8]

Chicago’s average December snowfall is 8.3 inches (or one-fifth of the full-season average of 37.4 inches), but averages don’t tell the real story. Chicago’s least-snowy Decembers were in 1889 and 1912, both of which brought only a trace of snow (snowflakes in the air, but no measurable accumulation). Snowiest December: 1951 with 33.3 inches.

[Geos]

What are the Delta T's looking like on Tuesday???  Water temps are in the low/mid 40's and with temps in the low/mid 20's this should generate some intense instability.  Would be nice to see a heavy lake effect band for a few hours before winds turn more NNW.

 

Delta Ts are great. 18°C or so.

[Tony]

Well if indeed ORD does see snow (LES) out of this then our snowless December records might not be in jepordy. Hopefully we can see some mood flakes at least to make up for just a terrible start to winter.

[Maxim]

Well if indeed ORD does see snow (LES) out of this then our snowless December records might not be in jepordy. Hopefully we can see some mood flakes at least to make up for just a terrible start to winter.

Any snow that falls won't accumulate. Still thinking December will end with only a trace of snow officially. 

[Sciascia]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/ifps/TotalSnow/TotalSnow2_small.png

[Maxim]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/ifps/TotalSnow/TotalSnow2_small.png

ORD is right on the cusp, but those totals are probably slightly overdone. Unfortunately legit lake effect snow bands rarely pan out on this side of the lake.

[Maxim]

What I meant was if any snow does fall at O'Hare, it probably won't accumulate. I wouldn't be too surprised to see some lakeside locations getting an inch or so though.

[Geos]

Little surprised by the amounts suggested by LOT. 

There is a bit of an inversion showing up, so whatever does materialize will be fairly low level.

 

Pretty nice day today - chilly seasonable.

[Hawkeye]

My hope for finishing this December dud completely snowless was dashed this morning by a surprise 0.6" of fluffy snow.  December of 2011 (0.1") will remain the dud king.

[tim the weatherman]

we will finish off december 2014 without any snowfall and as with the storm around christmas is a lack of cold air instead of warm air so we will finish the year without any measurable snow.

[tim the weatherman]

was just noticing the nws main page that there is a wind chill advisory nw of james1976 area.

[james1976]

was just noticing the nws main page that there is a wind chill advisory nw of james1976 area.

Yeah there is. I forgot that it was gonna get cold this week.

[Geos]

A mostly sunny day here today with a high of 28°. Looks to be official - only a Trace for snow this month. Been a strange month especially considering how November was.

 

Looks like 37.85" of moisture will do it for this year.

[Maxim]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/ifps/TotalSnow/TotalSnow2_small.png

How'd that turn out for ya?

[Geos]

Low wind chills moving into the region tomorrow night.

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI836 PM CST MON DEC 29 2014WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-301100-MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC...SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM...WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON...LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON...MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...KENOSHA836 PM CST MON DEC 29 2014...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON TUESDAYUSHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. FORTUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MILESPER HOUR WILL COMBINE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 0 TO PRODUCEWIND CHILL VALUES OF 12 TO 17 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.$$MARQUARDT

[East Dubzz]

Little chilly this morning.

[Hawkeye]

My 2014 precip total will finish at 41.38".  That's not as good as 2009 or especially 2008, but it's certainly above normal.