Tom Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 After what has been thus far a historically cold Novemb-rrrrr, many signals are pointing for another repeat month that could also be one to reckon with. Could this be a December to Remember??? I know many of you wont forget what November has brought thus far. We have another major SSW event occurring over Eurasia and this will be the pattern we see throughout the winter months as this will result in blocking over the arctic regions. Lets discuss the potential storm systems and major cold to follow as we open up December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 Tom, what are your thoughts on the system for the 30th-1st? GGEM HR 120: UKIE HR 120 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks like an over-running event on the GFS with high ratio snows. GGEM not to enthusiastic about it right now. Doesn't look like an organized system will develop but what I do see happening is for some over-running snows to break out along the arctic boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS does not have much at all showing up in the next 10 days as far as winter goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS does not have much at all showing up in the next 10 days as far as winter goes. Patience, it didn't show the same thing 5 days ago and its turning the corner. Can't be a model hugger, esp with the GFS...Euro has also been misbehaving in the medium/longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 Patience, it didn't show the same thing 5 days ago and its turning the corner. Can't be a model hugger, esp with the GFS...Euro has also been misbehaving in the medium/longer range.I am a model hugger but the hugging taking place in this forum beyond the 5 day range is way overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 Patience, it didn't show the same thing 5 days ago and its turning the corner. Can't be a model hugger, esp with the GFS...Euro has also been misbehaving in the medium/longer range.Yep, I know models can change from run to run, especially the GFS, but still most of the models are pretty boring. Side note...Happy Thanksgiving to all of you winter weather peeps!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 I am a model hugger but the hugging taking place in this forum beyond the 5 day range is way overdoneI watch the models daily but don't over react about it. I'm sure that is what your talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 Remember for this last storm the models had absolutely nothing 72 hours out. Euro showed nothing until like 1 1/2 days before the event and look what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 Remember for this last storm the models had absolutely nothing 72 hours out. Euro showed nothing until like 1 1/2 days before the event and look what happened.And the euro is king right!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 just heard from tom skilling from wgn tv website and the way he is saying is we better get ready for a colder winter and if we do get any storms they might be big ones too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 Has the LRC length been determined yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 Has the LRC length been determined yet?Gary Lezak will have his Preliminary Outlook tonight @ 10pm CST. He mentioned it would be around 43 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 just heard from tom skilling from wgn tv website and the way he is saying is we better get ready for a colder winter and if we do get any storms they might be big ones too. Hey - was there a video posted on the website of him giving the winter forecast? Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hey - was there a video posted on the website of him giving the winter forecast?yes at wgn tv website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS has been showing a big storm for Dec 4th-ish for a while now. Looks to be rain and snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 yes at wgn tv website. Thanks - found it. http://wgntv.com/2014/11/24/tom-skillings-winter-outlook/ Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS has been showing a big storm for Dec 4th-ish for a while now. Looks to be rain and snow.by that time the ao will be negative so that means it will be a snowmaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't mind the look of the newly issued December forecast from CPC. If you take into account the warm along the west coast and east coast, that should translate to a deeper trough in the central CONUS. Even though it has equal chances for our region, you shouldn't forget their forecast for last year's winter where it had almost the entire area from the Rockies east in Equal Chances. As for precip, with El Nino conditions already happening, this should ignite the southern jets stream this month and fire up some juicy systems. I like the idea of above normal precip in the southern part of the U.S. BTW, that does not mean you won't see above normal precip north of there. Fun times ahead this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 Thanks - found it. http://wgntv.com/2014/11/24/tom-skillings-winter-outlook/no problem and you''re welcome geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 One of the biggest problems both the GFS/EURO have been illustrating in the Day 10-15 is handling what happens to energy once it hits the GOA. Both models have been having a bias to keep a NW NAMER trough and then eventually begin correcting as we get closer. This has big implications to temperatures and trough positions down stream for us in the central CONUS. I'm going to post the last 3 consecutive runs of the Euro Ensembles for the target date 00z Dec 7th. Notice on yesterday's 12z run it had a big trough hugging NW NAMER, last nights 00z run the trough is a bit farther off shore, then today's 12z run...bingo, no more trough and we see a ridge building in. Build the ridge, unleash the fridge. Also, notice whats starting to poke up near the arctic just north of Alaska. Rising heights will mean a bigger trough down stream. Another key component the model is seeing now is the placement of the PV in central/northern Canada. Right where it has been showing up all season long thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 by that time the ao will be negative so that means it will be a snowmaker. If only it were that easy, there are no absolutes in weather, the cold will probably filter in after the storm, but track could still be a sharp cutting storm that gives us rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 Woah, 18z GFS finally might be catching onto the idea of major cold around the 7th/8th... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 Woah, 18z GFS finally might be catching onto the idea of major cold around the 7th/8th...i was wondering what is going on about that storm by nextweek because the accuweather fourms is mentioning that we will be on the warm sector with the dewpoints up to 60 because the trough will be positvely tilted instead of being negativily tilted and has the storm further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 truthfully i don't buy in the accuweather forecast that how can you have a storm that is forecast for nextweek with the dewpoints up to near 60 and we are in the warm sector with the ao going negative and like tom has mentioning from last month being farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 i was wondering what is going on about that storm by nextweek because the accuweather fourms is mentioning that we will be on the warm sector with the dewpoints up to 60 because the trough will be positvely tilted instead of being negativily tilted and has the storm further north.We'll see, but a storm cutting that far west at this time of year is suspicious. So I'm very skeptical we see a cutter through the high Plains. This storm system hit southern Japan so maybe a Plains/Midwest storm is a better idea. The PNA will be a bit negative so a SE ridge will certainly help cut this storm somewhere near the Lakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 JB not buying an extended period of "mild" weather. How he explains the reasoning behind the dominant storm tracks this Winter is that the cool area in the north central Pacific will promote storminess and on the front side storms will have a tendency to build ridging over the warmth off the West Coast. That in turn will promote a trough into the central US. Secondarily the weak El Niño will ignite a southern jet stream that will carry over into the southern US. Storms will be able to tap into that added moisture potential this winter. Also the warmer water off the East Coast will probably tend to favor some ridging. In an active hurricane season, that area can fall below normal from the storminess, but we haven't had that this year to speak of. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 Is EURO showing this storm? Im amazed at how consistent the GFS has been with it. And wow, some widespread -20 850s on the 7th-8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 Is EURO showing this storm? Im amazed at how consistent the GFS has been with it. And wow, some widespread -20 850s on the 7th-8th.Euro has been showing it, but holding the energy too long in the Rockies which is the models errors. I think by Friday we should be getting a better handle on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 JB not buying an extended period of "mild" weather. How he explains the reasoning behind the dominant storm tracks this Winter is that the cool area in the north central Pacific will promote storminess and on the front side storms will have a tendency to build ridging over the warmth off the West Coast. That in turn will promote a trough into the central US. Secondarily the weak El Niño will ignite a southern jet stream that will carry over into the southern US. Storms will be able to tap into that added moisture potential this winter. Also the warmer water off the East Coast will probably tend to favor some ridging. In an active hurricane season, that area can fall below normal from the storminess, but we haven't had that this year to speak of. 112514globalSSTs.pngClassic split flow that has been the pattern this season thus far. Don't see that changing as we head into Winter full force this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/11/25/12/GFS_3_2014112512_F192_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.pnglol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 Tropical Tidbits is temporarily offline while it is moved to a new server. It is currently anticipated that the website will be back up on or around November 27th. Thank you for your patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 the storm for next week could be central midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/11/25/12/GFS_3_2014112512_F192_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.pngnice baroclinic zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 i was wondering what is going on about that storm by nextweek because the accuweather fourms is mentioning that we will be on the warm sector with the dewpoints up to 60 because the trough will be positvely tilted instead of being negativily tilted and has the storm further north.Re: bolded, I'd agree when you look at the Typhoon Rule correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 andrew at the weather centre just came out a post regarding the storm nextweek ans he is saying that the central midwest will be getting hit with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/11/25/12/GFS_3_2014112512_F192_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.pngThis looks good for a colder storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 This looks good for a colder storm.found this out the accuweather fourms today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 look at this.http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/11/25/12/GFS_3_2014112512_F192_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 26, 2014 Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.giflolhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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