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December 2014 Observations and Discussion

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Grizzcoat
Grizzcoat

i think the point of people like Money/Tom etc is not that everyone that disagrees with them about cold/snow returning by the last 10 days or so of the month needs to be admitted-- but that ever since

gosaints
gosaints

Alrighty then... Next time someone posts torches in lala land better not here any push back from you or others than either...

stratosjeff
stratosjeff

Dude, let it go. I'm sorry people attack you. I can understand some of the frustration though. You don't use any punctuation in your posts, you basically posted a farmers almanac storm (360 hrs). I as

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Looks like GFS brings back the warmth after Christmas for a little while. Temperatures rising into the upper forties.

It's one run, look at the ensembles and you shouldn't jump into conclusions after seeing 1 or 2 operational runs.  BTW, one thing you should pay attn to is watch the GFS's bias to swing troughs/energy to fast to the east in the mid/long range, just like it's doing on the 12z run.  Remember these runs and then see where it is 5 days from now.  I recommend doing these cast studies on your own with each of the models and you will notice them.

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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The Clipper or whatever it is for early next week needs to be watched --- here is DMX take on it and beyond. The EURO has thickness levels well below 540 along with 850 temps below 0C  for most of IA but surface temps near 40. Doesn't make any sense.

 

NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND EXTENDS
INTO TUESDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE MOVING FORWARD WITH A CONSENSUS
SOLUTION AS THE GFS IS QUITE MILD WHILE THE EURO IS NOW SUGGESTING
A SOLUTION WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC COOLING AS THE PRECIP
ARRIVES INTO MONDAY. THE EURO SUGGESTS MORE SNOW THAN RAIN/SNOW
MIX. GIVEN THE EVENT IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY...WILL HOLD ONTO CURRENT
MIX TRENDS FOR NOW...AND MONITOR DURING SUBSEQUENT MODEL PACKAGES.
THE ONE TREND THAT IS BEGINNING TO EMERGE IS COLDER AIR AS NEXT
WEEK PROGRESSES. AS A STRONG PACNW STREAM WAVE ADVANCES EAST INTO
THE WESTERN STATES...MIDWEST RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
AND BECOME DISPLACED BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD SPELL A
TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COLDER PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF
THE EXTENDED. AS THE WAVE TUESDAY DEEPENS...A RATHER STRONG SFC
WAVE WILL EJECT NORTH NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN TEXAS TO EASTERN
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT GFS/EURO PACKAGES...THE MAIN
H850 MOISTURE PLUME...BETTER FORCING...AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY END UP EAST OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR FOR
GENERAL WESTWARD DRIFT NEXT SEVERAL PACKAGES...THIS SOMETIMES
OCCURS WITH WINTER STORM EVOLUTION IN MODEL PACKAGES...FIRST
PROJECTING THE EVENT TOO FAR EAST THEN PULLING IT BACK AS THE
EVENT NEARS.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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Yeah those East Coaster's will not be happy with rain while we have snow!

 

Glad there is something finally to track in the next 7 days!

 

---

Was able to get about 15 minutes of sun today, which is more than I've seen in about 5 days.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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I thought the upgrades to the GFS was supposed to have allready taken place??  Is that not what the GFS parallel is??

I read that by mid January they were supposed to have taken place...they are upgrading the GFS Par

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Yesterday I was looking for a map to show the similarities of SST's from 1977-78 to our current SST's and JB just posted a nice article comparing this winter to 1977-78 & 2002-2003 as their analogs.  One thing he did mention and that caught my attention was the fact that there were many monster storms that hit the Great Lakes region in '77-'78.  Here we are, about 2 weeks into meteorological winter and we have already had a huge Pre Thanksgiving Storm in the Lakes and yet another about to hit Christmas Eve.  Is this a sign of things to come???  I think so.  These systems are fitting the pattern and I believe it wont be the last monster storm to hit the Lakes (hint: Jan 3-5th).

 

 

 

 

 

 

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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You want to be in the Front Right and Left Rear exit region of the jet stream to get the most lift and snowfall....look at this jet structure...

 

Tom, I hear this often but still don't get exactly where those two points would be on your map? Help me pls? anyone? 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Tom, I hear this often but still don't get exactly where those two points would be on your map? Help me pls? anyone? 

When looking at that map, the red colors indicated a jet stream max and strongest winds and you want to be near the nose of that Jet, on the right side of it.  Now, follow that jet down and around you can see the jet then bend to the right...that is the second piece of the jet and you want to be near the left rear exit or the left side of the jet.  Where these masses of air collide they produce the most "lift".  I learned this tool of forecasting by watching Tom Skilling.  Even when models are not showing that much precip days away from the event, I use this tool to get an idea where the precip may blossom.  Just like with this system, there isn't much precip thrown back westward, its always good for one to see how the jet stream is being forecast.  I've noticed that paying attn to the jet structure can give you a good idea of where precip will break out in future runs.  I'm very optimistic we will see future runs with this system producing a bigger comma shape head feature you see with large systems like this esp when they go negative tilt.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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When looking at that map, the red colors indicated a jet stream max and strongest winds and you want to be near the nose of that Jet, on the right side of it.  Now, follow that jet down and around you can see the jet then bend to the right...that is the second piece of the jet and you want to be near the left rear exit or the left side of the jet.  Where these masses of air collide they produce the most "lift".  I learned this tool of forecasting by watching Tom Skilling.  Even when models are not showing that much precip days away from the event, I use this tool to get an idea where the precip may blossom.  Just like with this system, there isn't much precip thrown back westw, its always good for one to see how the jet stream is being forecast.  I've notice that paying attn to the jet structure can give you a good idea of where precip will break out in future runs.  I'm very optimistic we will see future runs with this system producing a bigger comma shape head feature you see with large systems like this esp when they go negative tilt.

 

Awesome news. Thanks for breaking that down. Here's to hoping you're correct!  ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Money Proficient

Money

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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121800/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121800/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121800/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121800/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121800/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

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clintbeed1993 Enthusiast

clintbeed1993

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GFS is further south witj the post christmas storm. Looks like the one to watch for the plains and Great Lakes.

 

Looks suppressed on the latest GFS for sure.  Definitely needs to be watched as the energy emerges from the Rockies/4 Corners into the Plains.  As long as we get that first storm out of the way it should have the ability to develop into something nice for someone.

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

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Glad KC got some snow.  Going there tomorrow for Christmas with relatives.  Still have hopes for post Christmas storm across the plains.   06Z GFS really paints a large area of snow from the Central Rockies through the Plains on the 26-27.  Probably will be lots of model changing in the next week.  

 

Merry Christmas to all.  Love coming to this site daily.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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New JMA weeklies agreeing with a significantly cold pattern over the next 2 weeks with a SE ridge in play.  Notice the significant blocking developing over AK/NW NAMER and poking into the arctic regions.

 

Week 3 & 4 the model still showing alot of blocking this far out but somehow squeezes a ridge into central. It's more than likely a cause of the model "thinking" the trough centered north of Hawaii "pushing" the west coast ridge into the central CONUS.  Nonetheless, I like to looks of this as it still is keeping a ridge near Cali/4 corners/Rockies.

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

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Once this system next weekend either gets squashed or becomes an EC storm then we can look forward to the next system which would be probably New Years week and we know what will happen with that....wash/rinse/repeat is all that needs to be said. What a waste of December so far and we could possibly go into the record books this month with regards to the least amount of snow, at least top 5.

 

Just venting cause this setup we are seeing does not bode well for the Midwest. Sure systems look great 7 days out but as we get closer they seem to fall apart or not enough cold air or who knows what else.

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