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December 2014 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Although it looks dry and mild in the medium range, I'd be cautious about what the GEFS is showing. The AO is supposed to remain negative, but get even more negative after the 6th. NAO is supposed to remain positive for a little, while but that's supposed to drop eventually as well. A biggest consideration is that the PNA looks to go positive about the time the AO tanks, so look out for a trough to return back into the central US.

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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does anybody like geos,tom or money knows about the storm between the 7th and the 10th of next month accuweather fourms has mentioning this storm they are saying that the low will be near memphis tn to buffalo ny and they are saying that the storm is mainly rain and not enough cold air to snow and they are saying that mi will get a little of the snow with ice for n il also chicago weather center said ontheir blog that no repeat from last winter.

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does anybody like geos,tom or money knows about the storm between the 7th and the 10th of next month accuweather fourms has mentioning this storm they are saying that the low will be near memphis tn to buffalo ny and they are saying that the storm is mainly rain and not enough cold air to snow and they are saying that mi will get a little of the snow with ice for n il also chicago weather center said ontheir blog that no repeat from last winter.

??

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does anybody like geos,tom or money knows about the storm between the 7th and the 10th of next month accuweather fourms has mentioning this storm they are saying that the low will be near memphis tn to buffalo ny and they are saying that the storm is mainly rain and not enough cold air to snow and they are saying that mi will get a little of the snow with ice for n il also chicago weather center said ontheir blog that no repeat from last winter.

 

There's a storm on the 12z GFS on the 8th. But right now the cold air looks to be disconnected from the system. 12z EURO shows a weak wave (mostly north of I-90) with some cold air at the same time.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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CPC changing its tune for December...I thought their previous forecast made on Nov 20th was in the right direction.  This one seems way to warm now.

this is way oppsite from andrew at the weather centre is saying that early to mid december is going to be colder thanks to the polar vortex and the arctic air.

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this is way oppsite from andrew at the weather centre is saying that early to mid december is going to be colder thanks to the polar vortex and the artic air.

Yup, the East Asian Theory has worked extremely well and by late next weekend into early the following week we may be dealing with some wintry weather.  I like the look on the GFS hinting at a cutter into the lower lakes that could potentially tug down a round of severe cold.  AO/NAO/PNA are all indicating this pattern to develop so we wait and watch the models latch onto to this.

 

BTW, how many times has CPC busted on their mid/long range forecasts this year???  

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BTW, how many times has CPC busted on their mid/long range forecasts this year???  

A LOT. They are better sticking with mid month update. their forecast bias is obvious. Many times- including the above map- it doesn't make any sense-- ie AK warm and 80% of the lower 48 warm.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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A LOT. They are better sticking with mid month update. their forecast bias is obvious. Many times- including the above map- it doesn't make any sense-- ie AK warm and 80% of the lower 48 warm.

 

Yeah that makes no sense having Alaska warm and the rest of the country!  :lol:

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I'm more of the glass is half full kind of person, although this current pattern is awful boring for certain, November we were spoiled with record breaking cold and early snows for many.  I think it will all come full circle and things will get active and cold.

Exactly, let Mother Nature reload the pattern even though its still cold near the Lakes/Midwest over the next 7 days.  Temps will average near normal this week and I'm expecting the models to start latching on to a troughy pattern by Sun/Mon given the state of the projected PNA/AO.  We all know how the models reacted when the last big SSW event took place in late October.  It took the models quite some time to figure out the pattern.

Last year December started off relatively mild before coming out of the gates around Dec 6th/7th.  We will have something similar I suppose this year and then early next week we shall see more activity take place.  We have been spoiled with a tremendous amount of cold in November and early season snows.  I'm sure many on this forum are over excited to what can be expected this winter but we need to be a little patient.

 

The amount of warming currently happening in the arctic regions would suggest more cold air on the horizon, including the amount of cold and storminess that is now pounding Japan.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

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Yeah I have to remind myself, last December at this time people were calling off the whole month because it was beginning to warm up. There was some days in the 50s around here the first 10 days of the month, then the other shoe dropped and the epic winter started. 

I think there is going to be an above normal stretch coming, but not to the degree the CPC has it. It's not like there is an lack of snow cover over North America - unlike some years. Cold air will want to bleed into the pattern in the northern 1/3rd of the country. If we had a stronger El Niño, then I'd be more concerned about an extended mild period.

 

Today feels like December no doubt.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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EURO wants to dig a trough now for next week, while the GFS says, "no way Jose"!

 

post-7-0-81092200-1417473769_thumb.png

 

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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