Niko Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Another "possible" Winterstorm is waiting in the wings to happen for some folks on here over this upcoming weekend and into early next week. Will this storm be the same w the previous 2waves? Will mix precipitation be mixing in and or rain? Could it be a miss for some and a huge hit for others? Lot of details to iron out here over the next couple of days. Models will definitely be busy. Good luck to all. Lets discuss this as soon as we are done w the present storm that we are dealing with............. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Canadian 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 I was just coming in here to say that while track details and amounts are uncertain, it is going to be hard for this to rain on the majority of the sub. That massive block over Hudson Bay and some confluence in the flow over Quebec suggest odds are that this should be a mostly snow system except for maybe the far west and southwest portions of the sub. If it were to rain further east, it would be after some front end snow. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Snow Snow everywhere. And even here? 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 The Euro has the heavy snow blowing up over the area shown in this image, but then weakening as quickly as it blew up. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 hours ago, hlcater said: I was just coming in here to say that while track details and amounts are uncertain, it is going to be hard for this to rain on the majority of the sub. That massive block over Hudson Bay and some confluence in the flow over Quebec suggest odds are that this should be a mostly snow system except for maybe the far west and southwest portions of the sub. If it were to rain further east, it would be after some front end snow. Agree, that expansive Hudson Bay ridge/block is going to seed a lot of cold air into this system and cause/create another road block scenario leading towards a very slow moving system. The 00z Euro has it snowing here for 30+ hours...loving this pattern that's unfolding. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Another WWA event for here? Amazeballs! Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 00z GEFS animation below has that CO Low track we have not seen in a little while...another "share the wealth"??? This time, I'm encouraged to see that our MI peeps cash in as well. 00z Euro showing quite a bit of snow region wide including today's snow... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 At this time I think that this is a system that bears watching. Just have a feeling that this could be a big event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 this sucks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Euro shows this map, but subtract 7.4" from Iowa City for the current storm and that gives 11.3". LOL. Crazy. Especially considering that just a day or two ago the NWS said it looked like a rain event. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, bud2380 said: Euro shows this map, but subtract 7.4" from Iowa City for the current storm and that gives 11.3". LOL. Crazy. Especially considering that just a day or two ago the NWS said it looked like a rain event. Maybe this time Illinois can cash in on the double digit figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Canadian very similar to the Euro. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 30 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Canadian very similar to the Euro. theres like an 8 inch difference between euro and canadian for SW michigan though. whats going on with that? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, whatitdo said: theres like an 8 inch difference between euro and canadian for SW michigan though. whats going on with that? A lot of that on the Euro is from today's system. There isn't a 24 hour snow map available on the Euro on Pivotal, so I can't post just the one storm like I can with the Canadian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: A lot of that on the Euro is from today's system. There isn't a 24 hour snow map available on the Euro on Pivotal, so I can't post just the one storm like I can with the Canadian. nah euro has us getting a good thumping around 6 inches for this thread's system currently. At most it predicted like 4 inches for SW michigan for todays system. So there's a discrepancy between canadian and euro for michigan unless the time valid on the canadian map is before the system is over for us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, whatitdo said: nah euro has us getting a good thumping around 6 inches for this thread's system currently. At most it predicted like 4 inches for SW michigan for todays system. So there's a discrepancy between canadian and euro for michigan unless the time valid on the canadian map is before the system is over for us Canadian is currently south of the other models. And it weakens or transfers it's energy east much quicker. GFS loading now. A lot of Iowans in here and they focus on that quite a bit. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, bud2380 said: A lot of that on the Euro is from today's system. There isn't a 24 hour snow map available on the Euro on Pivotal, so I can't post just the one storm like I can with the Canadian. So is the Canadian showing from both? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Canadian is currently south of the other models. And it weakens or transfers it's energy east much quicker. GFS loading now. praying this is the storm for us man; we been shafted way too many times this winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, GDR said: So is the Canadian showing from both? no he posted just this thread's system (for the canadian) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 The GFS models are still coming in much warmer (and consequently further north with snow) than others. Here is the GFS v 16 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: The GFS models are still coming in much warmer (and consequently further north with snow) than others. Here is the GFS v 16 But we have the ICON on our side Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 The GFS has been really bad lately and always late to the party it seems. Too bad as it used to be a pretty good model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, Tony said: The GFS has been really bad lately and always late to the party it seems. Too bad as it used to be a pretty good model. This type of storm is GFS kryptonite. It cannot handle critical thermal systems. With warm air advecting in, it will overdo the warm air and show rain or mix and be proven wrong again. Like it has time and again already. I trust the Euro here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 31 minutes ago, Tony said: The GFS has been really bad lately and always late to the party it seems. Too bad as it used to be a pretty good model. When you rush an "upgrade", that's what happens. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Nice look on the Gem. It does weaken it slightly as it heads east but not as badly as the current situation we were in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Canadian 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 I've lost count of the number of times the GFS has shown rain here this winter and we ended up with snow. Here is the UK. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: I've lost count of the number of times the GFS has shown rain here this winter and we ended up with snow. Here is the UK. It's true, you really can't even use the GFS with these types of storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 The GFS will be too warm. The only way this rains on Iowa is if the low makes its way further north than modeled. The colder models have the best handle right now. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 It's comical how many times the GFS has done this. And the NWS doesn't even seem to notice. They'll still say in today's AFD that p-type is unknown based on the GFS. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Bunch of imby weenies in here lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Wednesday's system is trending further north and a little wetter. Euro gives 1-2" for the northeast KS, far SE NE and into MO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Euro coming in further south and a little weaker. It looks really strong until it hits the cold air and then hits a brick wall. Some heavy amounts in southern Iowa and central Illinois though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 12z Euro coming in South this run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 The Euro is blowing up the weekend system earlier and farther south, then weakens the snow shield rapidly. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Subtract about an inch in Iowa to account for today's leftover's and some light snow Wednesday. Des Moines jackpot again. Ha ha. About 3-4" in my backyard. Down from the 11" it showed on the 00z run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The Euro is blowing up the weekend system earlier and farther south, then weakens the snow shield rapidly. Not a good run at all. Hope to get better results as time goes on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 I still feel this system is one to keep a eye on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Ofc it hits a brick wall on its way over here ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ i give up lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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