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Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1


Niko

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Another "possible" Winterstorm is waiting in the wings to happen for some folks on here over this upcoming weekend and into early next week. Will this storm be the same w the previous 2waves? Will mix precipitation be mixing in and or rain? Could it be a miss for some and a huge hit for others? Lot of details to iron out here over the next couple of days. Models will definitely be busy. Good luck to all.

Lets discuss this as soon as we are done w the present storm that we are dealing with.............

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I was just coming in here to say that while track details and amounts are uncertain, it is going to be hard for this to rain on the majority of the sub. That massive block over Hudson Bay and some confluence in the flow over Quebec suggest odds are that this should be a mostly snow system except for maybe the far west and southwest portions of the sub. If it were to rain further east, it would be after some front end snow. 

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Snow Snow everywhere. And even here?

 

20210125 CPC hazards_d3_7_contours.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Euro has the heavy snow blowing up over the area shown in this image, but then weakening as quickly as it blew up.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, hlcater said:

I was just coming in here to say that while track details and amounts are uncertain, it is going to be hard for this to rain on the majority of the sub. That massive block over Hudson Bay and some confluence in the flow over Quebec suggest odds are that this should be a mostly snow system except for maybe the far west and southwest portions of the sub. If it were to rain further east, it would be after some front end snow. 

Agree, that expansive Hudson Bay ridge/block is going to seed a lot of cold air into this system and cause/create another road block scenario leading towards a very slow moving system.  The 00z Euro has it snowing here for 30+ hours...loving this pattern that's unfolding.

1.gif

 

5.png

 

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00z GEFS animation below has that CO Low track we have not seen in a little while...another "share the wealth"???  This time, I'm encouraged to see that our MI peeps cash in as well.

1.gif

 

00z Euro showing quite a bit of snow region wide including today's snow...

5.png

 

 

 

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Just now, bud2380 said:

Euro shows this map, but subtract 7.4" from Iowa City for the current storm and that gives 11.3". LOL.  Crazy.  Especially considering that just a day or two ago the NWS said it looked like a rain event. 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Maybe this time Illinois can cash in on the double digit figures.

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3 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

theres like an 8 inch difference between euro and canadian for SW michigan though. whats going on with that?

A lot of that on the Euro is from today's system.  There isn't a 24 hour snow map available on the Euro on Pivotal, so I can't post just the one storm like I can with the Canadian.  

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2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

A lot of that on the Euro is from today's system.  There isn't a 24 hour snow map available on the Euro on Pivotal, so I can't post just the one storm like I can with the Canadian.  

nah euro has us getting a good thumping around 6 inches for this thread's system currently. At most it predicted like 4 inches for SW michigan for todays system. So there's a discrepancy between canadian and euro for michigan unless the time valid on the canadian map is before the system is over for us 

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3 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

nah euro has us getting a good thumping around 6 inches for this thread's system currently. At most it predicted like 4 inches for SW michigan for todays system. So there's a discrepancy between canadian and euro for michigan unless the time valid on the canadian map is before the system is over for us 

Canadian is currently south of the other models.  And it weakens or transfers it's energy east much quicker.  GFS loading now.  A lot of Iowans in here and they focus on that quite a bit.  

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8 minutes ago, Tony said:

The GFS has been really bad lately and always late to the party it seems. Too bad as it used to be a pretty good model.

This type of storm is GFS kryptonite.  It cannot handle critical thermal systems.  With warm air advecting in, it will overdo the warm air and show rain or mix and be proven wrong again.  Like it has time and again already.  I trust the Euro here.  

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I've lost count of the number of times the GFS has shown rain here this winter and we ended up with snow.

Here is the UK.

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro is blowing up the weekend system earlier and farther south, then weakens the snow shield rapidly.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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