Stacsh Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 30 minutes ago, whatitdo said: Ofc it hits a brick wall on its way over here ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ i give up lol The storm ongoing did also. 3 days ago there was no chance of snow in MId-Michigan and they got 3-8" so far. Time will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 51 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Subtract about an inch in Iowa to account for today's leftover's and some light snow Wednesday. Des Moines jackpot again. Ha ha. About 3-4" in my backyard. Down from the 11" it showed on the 00z run. Nice looking band extending from Sioux City right down into my county! If we end up with another 6" of snow it will be tough finding places to put all the snow!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 I'd like to see the Euro ensembles on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now kind of looking at this. If it ends up far enough SW that SE NE gets 5-8" like some models are showing, might as well just call the National Guard or else I'm not getting out of here until March 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 25 minutes ago, bud2380 said: I'd like to see the Euro ensembles on this one. Here is the 12z EPS. More impressive than I though it would be. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Thanks Clinton. Those are really nice and in incredible agreement this far out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Like this previous storm, it's overplaying the blocking this far out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Stacsh said: The storm ongoing did also. 3 days ago there was no chance of snow in MId-Michigan and they got 3-8" so far. Time will tell. 4 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Like this previous storm, it's overplaying the blocking this far out. I may be bitter and I hope im wrong but I honestly don’t think I will be. Using my jedi instincts on this and it just doesn’t feel like it will pan out despite what happened with todays system. Gotta be different variables at play. Ik @jaster220 feels me lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 26, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 TWC early prediction... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 26, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 25 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Like this previous storm, it's overplaying the blocking this far out. I agree.... Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 12z EPS 3"+... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Shockingly, DVN mentions the warmer GFS and rain potential this weekend. I can't believe they never learn not to trust that model with thermal profiles. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 32 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Shockingly, DVN mentions the warmer GFS and rain potential this weekend. I can't believe they never learn not to trust that model with thermal profiles. What is that definition of insanity? Wait I’ve heard it before. Oh yeah, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 45 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Shockingly, DVN mentions the warmer GFS and rain potential this weekend. I can't believe they never learn not to trust that model with thermal profiles. Maybe for Southern area? i have this in my grids: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Jim Flowers is saying hold up on those thermals for here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Getting a little better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, bud2380 said: Shockingly, DVN mentions the warmer GFS and rain potential this weekend. I can't believe they never learn not to trust that model with thermal profiles. DMX is doing the same Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 If everything goes just right this is how the map should look 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 One of these has got to come north....looks like the Feb 5th one may if this one does not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, Madtown said: One of these has got to come north....looks like the Feb 5th one may if this one does not The Feb 4th storm looks to be a biggie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 I leave for Florida on the 3rd so the 4th will be the best storm of the year in SE Wisconsin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Hello Euro!! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, OmahaSnowFan said: Hello Euro!! and i oop Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 20 hours ago, FAR_Weather said: Another WWA event for here? Amazeballs! Could be showing 1 foot, just to deliver 1 inch. You want that instead, lol Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 12 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Hello Euro!! Mby under 1"?...................ride it! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 10 hours ago, whatitdo said: I may be bitter and I hope im wrong but I honestly don’t think I will be. Using my jedi instincts on this and it just doesn’t feel like it will pan out despite what happened with todays system. Gotta be different variables at play. Ik @jaster220 feels me lol Haha, and yes, I do. When we needed (and expected) the block to deliver, it failed despite the perfect SLP track. Now watch, the block will show up to play this time and push this thing just south of us. WPC already seeing it: Been since the crappy late 80's but I've seen a season like this before. Everything finds a way to FAIL 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 00z GFS... 00z GFS Para... 00z GGEM... 00z UKIE... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Both the 00z Euro/UKIE aren't as aggressive with this system as it pushes east compared to the GFS/GGEM. After looking at the GEFS/GEPS ensembles, it's hard to believe the Euro/UKIE Op weaken the system so dramatically as it heads into IL/IN. With that being said, ride the ensembles at this range bc they represent a better picture and agreement overall. SLP track seems like a lock as we are going to see a classic CO Low ejecting out into the Plains/MW this weekend. Let's look at all the qpf totals from the ensembles.... 00z EPS/Control... 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 00z GEFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 @Tom It's snowing in KC right now! Not going to be much, but it is snowing nonetheless. Sticking to everything as temps are around 24 degrees. Good radar trends now, but doesn't look to last more then a few hours on the heavier band. Looks like this storm you are showing maps on will be another big rain producer here in KC. Darn it! I'm at 2.21 inches of rain/melted down snow for Jan. Model data showing another .50-1.00 on Saturday for KC. If you would have told me back on Dec. 31st that we would have between 2-3 inches of moisture in Jan. but only around 4-5 inches of total snow accumulation, I would have called you crazy! We only average 1.07 inches of moisture in Jan. If only we had a colder month. Any hope for us here in KC for the month of FEB.?? Storm track as you forecasted was going to be active, we just didn't line it up with cold air. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, MIKEKC said: @Tom It's snowing in KC right now! Not going to be much, but it is snowing nonetheless. Sticking to everything as temps are around 24 degrees. Good radar trends now, but doesn't look to last more then a few hours on the heavier band. Looks like this storm you are showing maps on will be another big rain producer here in KC. Darn it! I'm at 2.21 inches of rain/melted down snow for Jan. Model data showing another .50-1.00 on Saturday for KC. If you would have told me back on Dec. 31st that we would have between 2-3 inches of moisture in Jan. but only around 4-5 inches of total snow accumulation, I would have called you crazy! We only average 1.07 inches of moisture in Jan. If only we had a colder month. Any hope for us here in KC for the month of FEB.?? Storm track as you forecasted was going to be active, we just didn't line it up with cold air. Yes, this will end up being the best met winter month overall for the eastern Sub as all seems to be lining up just what I've been looking for. I'm going to put together a long range post in the next day or so. Winter will settle farther south in about 10 days for your area and points east. Major -NAO (west-based Greenland Block) signal including a -EPO will lead to sustained cold well into March. Back-loaded winter is underway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 6z Euro Control 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS has its usual warm bias here in IA. Or "warmer" at least. The colder Euro thermals seem to be winning out so far this winter so im riding that. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 The 6z EC is perfect. Hold there please. I just continue to chuckle at how awful the GFS is in storms like this. And mostly all storms in general, but especially anything related to questionable thermals. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Clinton said: 6z Euro Control Never good to be in the bullseye 3 days out. Just like the last storm for me. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 I am not sure im buying the blocking crap. That was forecasted w the previous storm and instead precip made it further north than predicted. Something to keep in mind. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 NAM finally coming into range. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 From what I could tell, after seeing all the 06z EPS members, a majority show juicy hits and there are more members showing Lehs in SE WI/NE IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Looks like a sizable storm. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 RDPS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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