Jump to content

Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1


Niko

Recommended Posts

The models have generally shown the heaviest totals where the WAA snow band initially blows up, with a drop off north of that.  The morning RDPS would suggest southern Iowa gets the best snow.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Tom said:

00z GEFS...

1.png

GEFS vs The World for SWMI. Let's see who wins. You mentioned classic CO Low. But looks like it's diving SE instead of due East. Btw what was your final total for the storm there?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GDPS is gradually focusing the heavier snow eastward, with weakening west through Iowa and into Nebraska.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_15.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

GEFS vs The World for SWMI. Let's see who wins. You mentioned classic CO Low. But looks like it's diving SE instead of due East. Btw what was your final total for the storm there?

Storm track is exactly due E out of CO but the snow shield is kinda off.  

I got about 6.5” from the last storm.  There was a lot of blowing/drifting and based on local reports that seems right.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

UKIE with the bulk falling in eastern Iowa between 6pm and midnight. 

I hate to complain considering how fortunate we've been, but this would be more lousy timing.  I want to see the snow fall during daylight.  Daytime snow is much more enjoyable than overnight snow.

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Storm track is exactly due E out of CO but the snow shield is kinda off.  

I got about 6.5” from the last storm.  There was a lot of blowing/drifting and based on local reports that seems right.

Nice score bud! Did ORD break the 6" storm drought then?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

UK is a bit back north with a big hit for the I-80 to HW20 corridor.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Huge shift by the UK for those of us eastward. Trending??

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Euro is north, starts with mix almost up to Iowa City.  With such a great low track, it's a shame this system won't have heavier snow wrapping back around the nw side.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Hawkeye said:

12z Euro is north, starts with mix almost up to Iowa City.  With such a great low track, it's a shame this system won't have heavier snow wrapping back around the nw side.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

That's going to be a whicked band of snow...1-2"/hr stuff right there...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cedar Rapids is sitting pretty at the moment.  The first six hours of snow should be pretty heavy.

Those of you farther east aren't locked in, yet.  The UK goes into southern Michigan while the Euro drops south.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
  • Snow 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That can't be quite correct because Des Moines is not smack dab in the middle of the heavy band.

  • lol 5

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro 10:1 and Kuchera maps aren't much different, so this would be a wetter snow.  My malfunctioning blower will love that. 

  • lol 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think sampling comes in late tomorrow or early Friday.........

<models should have a better handle on this by then>

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Slight shift north in eastern IA as well on the Euro mean.  Still pretty good here.  I like where CR is.  20 miles to the south, it's starting to get a little bit border line.  It would only take another 30 mile shift north on the Euro to be right on the edge.  Lots of time to work out those details though.  Let's see if DVN finally starts talking about this storm with a little more urgency.  

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There are not many north misses among the Euro ensemble members, so I'm feeling pretty good.  I don't want to see it any farther north, though.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...