james1976 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Waterloo needs 7.1" out of this to become the snowiest January on record. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, james1976 said: Waterloo needs 7.1" out of this to become the snowiest January on record. I'll take that!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 As far as IC goes, thinking the best snow will be a bit to the northeast of me. I'd like where I was sitting if I were along hwy 20. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 I'd also like to say that you might want to pay particular attention to the NAM as it gets in range as it does well with these marginal temp/evap cooling dependent snow systems. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 NOAA says, there is a chance for "Heavy snow" for SEMI.....but not ironed out yet, which is totally acceptable at this range. Quote: This system has the potential to bring snowfall to parts of the area by late Saturday night into Sunday/Sunday night. However, the northern extent of heavy snowfall that will be associated with this system remains highly in question as the aforementioned high pressure, centered over Quebec by late in the weekend, will act to shunt the northeastward progress of this system as it encroaches on the region. This will become the biggest challenge of the forecast in the coming days. With the high pressure centered more to the east by that time, temperatures will moderate to some degree with highs closer to 30 from Sunday into early next week and lows in the teens to around 20. Btw: I dont recall the previous storm having any hard time moving north, meanwhile it was forecasted to stay south........ 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 I still think that this system will be one to keep a eye on. For one there are no out of this world snow fall maps for anyone to post. And thus no big hype. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Long-range NAM is a bit north of most models. After what happened with the last storm (and many others in the past) I don't want to be on the southern edge. 2 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Long-range NAM is a bit north of most models And that's only through 84hr with more to come Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Interesting to see NAM also picking up on the snow blip in E NE. I'd take 2-4" to mitigate the slow melting over the next week. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 FWIW, the ICON has the same good low track as other models, but has the mix all the way up to near the MN/IA border when the precip first breaks out. The best snow falls over ne IA. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 DMX is basically saying its a toss between Euro and GFS. That would suck if the GFS won this battle lol. Also mentioned the gulf will be wide open so if its snow it could be another biggie. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 RDPS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 DVN doesn't really have too much to add to the discussion. Heavy snow is likely in the area, but the exact details will depend on how far north the mid level warmth gets. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 18z RDPS.... obviously, more to go after these images. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 18z GFS way north and east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Looks to be taking on a negative tilt if I am seeing this correctly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS v 16 hits Chicago hard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Maybe the widespread snow cover will help keep this system a bit farther south? 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 We've seen models trend further south at this distance all winter, so wouldn't surprise me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, Tony said: Looks to be taking on a negative tilt if I am seeing this correctly More of a neutral tilt closed low aloft. Starts negative in the 4 corners, then closes off. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Chicago gets clobbered! MI peeps as well! I think I like this new upgraded version better 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 5 hours ago, Hawkeye said: I hate to complain considering how fortunate we've been, but this would be more lousy timing. I want to see the snow fall during daylight. Daytime snow is much more enjoyable than overnight snow. The last storm had quite a bit of daylight snow for me. But I realize the good snow started later in C.R. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 hours ago, bud2380 said: Slight shift north in eastern IA as well on the Euro mean. Still pretty good here. I like where CR is. 20 miles to the south, it's starting to get a little bit border line. It would only take another 30 mile shift north on the Euro to be right on the edge. Lots of time to work out those details though. Let's see if DVN finally starts talking about this storm with a little more urgency. I’ve been borderline with p/type issues all winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Winter Storm 'Orlena' is what TWC is calling this. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 18Z Euro now getting in range. 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 16 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: 18Z Euro now getting in range. Hate being under that bright pink bullseye, in north central Illinois, this far out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Can someone post the 18z eps mean for michigan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 0z NAM 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 0z RDPS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS super warm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, BMT said: GFS super warm GFS is garbage for this system. Same low track as other models, but has mix through the entire storm for Cedar Rapids. Not going to happen. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Still basically no precip in Lincoln on the GFS, which I would take over a potential cold rain I guess. But the GFS was wandering around blindfolded with pants around its ankles until 48 hrs out with the last storm. Not going to be a biggie here regardless, but should keep in mind farther east. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS thermals are not to be trusted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFSV16 much better though. Still snowing for many 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 I'm riding the Euro. F-it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, BMT said: GFSV16 much better though. Still snowing for many GFSv16 is close to other models, but still has some patchiness in the snow band over Iowa because of some odd mixing issues. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Its looking like a prolong snowevent for my neck of the woods and some others peeps as well. I might be looking at LES early next week, which could have it snowing here till possibly Tuesday afternoon. Have to see how that goes. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 That piece of energy that will affect some of us this weekend is still offshore out in the Pacific and should make it onshore sometime tomorrow. Models will at that point have a much clearer picture of the situation. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 The UK shows a low of -17 tomorrow morning for Cedar Rapids. I’m thinking it’s just a smidge off. Forecast is -3. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 40 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: GFSv16 is close to other models, but still has some patchiness in the snow band over Iowa because of some odd mixing issues. Any reason why GFS is garbage outside of it because it’s not showing snow in your area? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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