bud2380 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Money said: Any reason why GFS is garbage outside of it because it’s not showing snow in your area? You mean besides the many well documented cases of it being horrible? The NWS flat out stating to throw out the GFS on storms this winter? Or how every time there has been a storm with borderline thermals the GFS has been easily the most wrong of any global model? Besides those, I can’t think of any reasons. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 UK 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, Money said: Any reason why GFS is garbage outside of it because it’s not showing snow in your area? First, the GFSv16 does drop good snow here. Second, the GFS has had thermal issues all winter and no other model is showing anything like the GFS warm scenario. Even the v16 says the current v15 is garbage. Btw, if all other models had the snow missing Cedar Rapids, but the GFS dumped a foot on CR, I would have no problem calling the GFS scenario garbage. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 00z UKIE is juiced with moisture...looking pretty good for Chicago peeps and members across N IL...it's also looking like this will be another long duration event with some lull periods but I like that fact that there appears this system will have the ULL low track right overhead which should also aid in LES/LEHS and this side of LM. 6-hr increments...with 2m temps in the upper 20's and cold 850's, this should equate to better snow ratios that we saw over here in N IL from the last storm. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 00z GEFS...looking like more of the lower lakes region gets in on the action this time around... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 00Z Euro Kuchera- noticeable shift E in IA- (through HR 90)(only Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Yeah, the Euro has consistently chopped back the western end of the snow band. Over the last three runs Omaha has gone from 6" to 3" to nearly 0. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 No one posted the CMC- Flowers likes it better than the Euro and it did really well with last system up until the end. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 00z Euro coming in hot for Chicagoland...the spotty nature of the snow map below is indicative of convection....TSSN??? I'm also encouraged to see the models really highlighting on the back end LES signal for SE WI/NE IL...S MI/N IN members look to finally share in the wealth with this storm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 00z GEFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Who would like to be where Jim Cantore is in South Tahoe?? Back in my High School years, I took a trip to Heavenly Ski Resort in Tahoe, CA. I must say, the majestic beauty of the lake and mountains is absolutely wonderful. I'd love to be there right now. 3-5"/hr rates anyone? NWS Storm Prediction Center @NWSSPC · 1h 12:01am CST #SPC_MD 0042 , #cawx #nvwx, https://go.usa.gov/xA6fq 3 21 40 Tip 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWS Storm Prediction Center @NWSSPC · 1h 12:01am CST #SPC_MD 0042 , #cawx #nvwx, https://go.usa.gov/xA6fq 3 21 40 Tip
Tom Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Boy, the EPS is coming in juiced and trending wetter/snowier as we get closer. Great signs all together. It has been drying out on the west end and shifting E each run. Getting closer to what the GEFS/GEPS have been showing. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 06z NAM...still snowing... 06z RDPS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 00z Euro Control... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 06z GFSv16.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 06 GDPS or CMC- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 All of those maps that Tom posted are straight up offensive. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 06Z Euro Kuchera- this run was back W and N slightly 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 8 hours ago, bud2380 said: The UK shows a low of -17 tomorrow morning for Cedar Rapids. I’m thinking it’s just a smidge off. Forecast is -3. Probably a little cool But Waterloo this AM had dropped to -12F. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 This will be insane on top of the 8” I got 2 days ago! Hope the models continue with this trend 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 6z Euro Control 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Hope this holds. The west edge can stay put. I had between -13 and -15 on my drive into work this morning. Incredible what a snowpack can do. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 DMX only talking advisory criteria with 8:1 ratios. At this point, amounts remain mostly in advisory criteria although forecast snow ratios are averaging around 8:1 which seems low for late January, even with this relatively "warm" system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just went through looking at all the model runs and man are they juiced...except for the lonely GFS. I know lake enhancement can be funky on this side of the lake but you have to take notice especially when the Euro is showing this 3 days out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 This will be fun 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Jaycee said: This will be insane on top of the 8” I got 2 days ago! Hope the models continue with this trend Same here! Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 21 minutes ago, Tony said: Just went through looking at all the model runs and man are they juiced...except for the lonely GFS. I know lake enhancement can be funky on this side of the lake but you have to take notice especially when the Euro is showing this 3 days out. Per the NAM, that lake means business. Just look in Wisconsin how far inland it reaches. I'm sure most is lake enhancement but still Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jarod Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 I'm still rooting for a northern shift. If it goes south, maybe we can pick up a few extra inches on the tail end from lake effect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 There could be a sharp drop-off south of Iowa City. I hope this thing doesn't inch north any farther. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 I just want a snowfall greater than 3 inches. Is that too much to ask? I haven't had a day with more than 2 inches of 24 hr snowfall yet 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 RDPS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 East shift is staying put. Good sign for IA 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 GRR: Not one model I've seen has high snow impacts along I-96 in Michigan. Am I missing something? Is this going North and the models aren't showing it yet? - Trend toward higher potential for impacts Sat Night - Sun Models are coming into better agreement with the coverage and location of the snow with the next storm system for Sat Night into Sunday. Overall the latest guidance is favoring accumulating snow across much of the central and southern parts of the CWA. Highest amounts are shown to be along and south of I-96. Impacts are looking increasingly likely...with several inches of snow now possible. This system could continue to trend upward from an impact perspective with time as models are now starting to show better FGEN and some Gulf moisture getting drawn into it. Based on this we will increase POPs to likely or higher for these locations and add a few inches of snow to the forecast. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Stacsh said: GRR: Not one model I've seen has high snow impacts along I-96 in Michigan. Am I missing something? Is this going North and the models aren't showing it yet? - Trend toward higher potential for impacts Sat Night - Sun Models are coming into better agreement with the coverage and location of the snow with the next storm system for Sat Night into Sunday. Overall the latest guidance is favoring accumulating snow across much of the central and southern parts of the CWA. Highest amounts are shown to be along and south of I-96. Impacts are looking increasingly likely...with several inches of snow now possible. This system could continue to trend upward from an impact perspective with time as models are now starting to show better FGEN and some Gulf moisture getting drawn into it. Based on this we will increase POPs to likely or higher for these locations and add a few inches of snow to the forecast. i saw that. you know, they were the first in the area to say heaviest snow amounts would be north of i94 (instead of south) for the last system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 3k NAM has mixing issues up to Cedar Rapids At this point, I think I'd prefer to be near hw20 between Waterloo and Dubuque. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 The NAMs have some solid snow back into western Iowa and even southeast Nebraska. Last night's Euro removed the snow from that area. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS continues to be the warmest solution. Bringing > 0 850s up to Hwy 20 and even north of there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Sampling starts tomorrow as that piece of energy finally arrives onshore in the Pacific. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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