Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1

[Hawkeye]

Now the GFS says barely any snow at all in Cedar Rapids.  Other models crash the snow down to the Missouri border by 00z.  The GFS still has rain up to Cedar Rapids at midnight.  It even pushes rain up to Chicago.  Even the warmish NAMs think the GFS is nuts.

[tbone8]

[Hawkeye]

GFSv16

[Hawkeye]

GDPS

This is starting to look like a 4-7" storm now.  A day or two ago it was more like 6-9".

[bud2380]

Big changes on the UKIE

[Hawkeye]

Yikes!  The UK just removed a big amount of precip from Iowa.... instead veers the good precip into Illinois.

[bud2380]

Models have not been good tonight for eastern Iowa. We’ll see if the Euro holds or caves. 

[bud2380]

UK still drops about 5” here but most of it is from light wrap around snows. The front end thump is weak. 

[Hawkeye]

Let's hope the Euro doesn't join the Canadian and UK.

[Bellona]

I guess I'll hold on to the short term models right now. I'd still be ok with 4-5 inches but I'd like to hit that 7.1 so we could break the record.

[Hawkeye]

Euro is doing the same thing as the UK.  It has removed much of the snow from central Iowa, but the Euro is still robust for east-central IA.

[Grizzcoat]

Flowers latest video - going with 3KM NAM. Says the RDPS bailing is just like last weeks storm and not to be concerned. Calling for 3.5 to 4" in OMA area. Says wrap around band wont be seen till day of event.

 

https://fb.watch/3jpvj6LGKf/

[Hawkeye]

6 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Flowers latest video - going with 3KM NAM. Says the RDPS bailing is just like last weeks storm and not to be concerned. Calling for 3.5 to 4" in OMA area. Says wrap around band wont be seen till day of event.

He's going out on a limb, then, because most models have waved bye-bye to the Omaha area.

[Tom]

00z Euro...the consistency has been rock steady for N IL over the past few days.  The only difference I see as we get close is the model is a tad colder at the onset when the initial front end thump of snow happens.  It's suggesting nearly 9" for ORD in 6 hours, thus, the increase in totals for this run and better Lehs/LES on the backside.

@indianajohn @Hoosierthis looks like it is coming together for you guys in IN...

 

00z UKIE...

 

00z EPS...steady as she goes...

 

[Grizzcoat]

Long range HRRR-

[Grizzcoat]

Long Range RAP-

[Grizzcoat]

3KM NAM and 12KM NAM (06Z) both through HR 60

[Grizzcoat]

06Z RDPS through HR 60--

[Tom]

Winter Storm watches being posted across E IA/IL/S WI/IN...

 

[Tom]

NWS National Digital Forecast Databse (NDFD)...

[Grizzcoat]

GFS v16 06Z--  (I actually hope those amounts in Dallas/Story, N POLK CTYs, IA  DO NOT happen, start talking structural issues and danger seeing cars at intersections NOW due to snow piles 8-10ft high) From a Civil Engineer point - parking lots etc down here are not designed for this amount compared to MN- but I'll gladly take 2-4" for a refresh.

[VMB443]

Winter Storm Watch up for me 5-8 inches. Added to what is on the ground already see should have a very impressive snowpack if this comes about.

[edhalen]

WSW from LOT a while ago.  8-12" for my county.  That new Toro Powerclear snow blower sitting in my garage is going to get a workout it seems.  Fingers crossed

[shakjen]

can’t remember the last time my forecast said 1-3 then 5-9

 

[whatitdo]

West Michigan this winter watching everyone else get winter storm watches/warnings

 

[Grizzcoat]

06Z Euro Kuchera-

[Grizzcoat]

It's very slight, but maybe a trend in that nearly all the 06Z guidance has slowly increased totals back W across C and W IA after going the other way yday. It will be the difference in placement in TOP 5 for Waterloo and Des Moines for snowiest DEC/JAN on record - in DSM's case it's either going to end up 3rd or 2nd. KDSM snowiest DEC/JAN on record------------

[Stormy]

Here’s my point forecast from the NWS. 
 

Saturday

Freezing rain and sleet, possibly mixed with snow before 3pm, then rain between 3pm and 5pm, then snow after 5pm. High near 34. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. 

Saturday Night

Snow. Low around 29. East wind around 15 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[FV-Mike]

Man the models have been so consistent over the last couple of days for N IL/SE Wi and In to get a good thumping. Really interesting to see

[james1976]

I'm on the west edge of the watch for 3-5" and a bit of ice. Wish this would be all snow. 

[Sciascia]

It won’t happen because the HRRR is a model that’s always super gung-ho on lake effect; but it would be chaotic to see downtown Chicago rack up a foot of snow before 6am Sunday morning.

[james1976]

Local met has 4-8 for most of E IA

[bud2380]

So far the NAM, 3k NAM, HRRR and the HRW suite of CAMS are all coming in warmer and further north this morning.  Drastically cutting into snow totals for Iowa City and Cedar Rapids.  

[Hawkeye]

The NAMs have changed drastically just from 00z to 12z.  The precip shield has veered east and south, but also the snow has pulled back north.  Jim Flowers was banking on the NAM's scenario of Omaha getting a few inches, but overnight the NAMs totally removed all precip for that area.  Unfortunately, it's not just the NAM that's crapping out for many in Iowa.  The HRRR, which was colder and all snow for my area, is now warmer and drops the best snow north.  The HRRR now has four hours of freezing rain and sleet in Cedar Rapids.  Ugh!  This system was locked in just a day or two ago, but it's fading now. 

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR is still plenty moist and has not cut the precip down in Iowa like some other models.  It's just too warm.

[East Dubzz]

Still is a solid spot here, but also cutting it a little closer than I’d like to see.

[Hawkeye]

12z RDPS is actually back up with snow for east-central IA.  It shows a quick change to snow for the area, much quicker than the CAMs.  I'm afraid I can't buy this colder look.

[bud2380]

Well, all winter the cold air has won out in my area, hopefully it will one more time.  I hate to say this, but the models are trending towards the GFS.  I will never issue the GFS an apology though.  It's been wrong so many times.  And could still be way wrong with this one as it is at major odds with the Euro still.  Although looking at the Euro trends, it has changed dramatically from just a couple days ago.  I can only hope the changes are done and it's locked in now.  

[brianc400]

58 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

It won’t happen because the HRRR is a model that’s always super gung-ho on lake effect; but it would be chaotic to see downtown Chicago rack up a foot of snow before 6am Sunday morning.

The models always show lake effect being a lot more widespread than it ever really is. Especially on the west side of the lake, we get these short, narrow fingers of LES that move around. I might get 1-1.5" extra in my location if the snow ratio is high enough and the storm is slow enough.

Interestingly, Skilling said Chicago's largest LES event (I presume non-storm-related) on record was only 5.5" in like 1992. Contrast that with the south and east shores where it can be significantly higher.

Hard to say how much LES we get in blizzards though where there's a lot more going on.

[dubuque473]