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Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1


Niko

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I haven't read an AFD from LOT like this in years...looks like a "wall of snow" is heading our way accompanied by gusty winds...similar to what happened with the storm back in late Dec.  If it wasn't for the massive west-based block, we wouldn't be counting our dividends.  They also mentioned the possibility for Thundersnow.

Quote

The
overarching key feature to this forecast is the long-lived
blocking ridge displaced well southwest of Greenland, near Hudson
Bay in advance of our system. The system will be forced underneath
the block (surface low track near STL and eastward), importantly
keeping the 850 mb low center south of area and the 700 mb low to
ease east- southeast as well. 
Quote

Snowfall rates of 1-2" or more per hour appear quite possible
through Saturday evening, along with easterly winds gusting up to
30-35 mph, strongest near the lake in Illinois. With SLR
generally less than 10:1 during the heaviest snow, this will be a
heavy/dense snow that will likely serve to increase the road
impacts and combined with the wind, could be looking at 1/4 to 1/2
mile or less visibility for several hours in a row. 
Quote

On the mesoscale, undoubtedly in this type of setup can
expect lower and mid-level frontogenesis to contribute to embedded
intense banding signatures in the warm advection portion of the
system. Finally, forecast sounding depiction of very steep lapse
rates (potentially 8-9C/km) above 500 mb is another ingredient for
heavy to intense precip rates (and maybe even thundersnow).

 

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19 minutes ago, Tom said:

I haven't read an AFD from LOT like this in years...looks like a "wall of snow" is heading our way accompanied by gusty winds...similar to what happened with the storm back in late Dec.  If it wasn't for the massive west-based block, we wouldn't be counting our dividends.  They also mentioned the possibility for Thundersnow.

 

I read that this morning and was smiling the whole time.  Thundersnow!!!  Bring it on!!! :)

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I'm not even going to bother posting the GFS since it is so much warmer.  

Here was DVNs take on the GFS today.. "perplexed"

 

The main problem that continues to plague this system is just how
far north the warm layer ultimately gets. GFS deterministic and
ensembles continues their streak of being the farthest north (which
I`m a little perplexed by given northward flow in the low levels),
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1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

UK very similar to the 00z run.

That 5.9" in Cedar Rapids, at 10:1, would probably be 4.x" of wet stuff.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This storm will really explode off the Atlantic Ocean.....

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2021_01/4912EFBE-97BD-4722-AB62-3175F966F797.jpeg.15a27b1e9d5ea2300ecb2a1407ba2fca.jpeg.0ff37909fc4ced90d3444207c20523ef.jpeg

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, East Dubzz said:

Still is a solid spot here, but also cutting it a little closer than I’d like to see.

I don’t see a curveball coming tomorrow, I think we are still good to go on the 3-7”

Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter


 


78.1"  Total snowfall


February Snowfall 32.5"


City salt usage  : 12,211 tons


Days of measurable snow  : 40

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5 hours ago, whatitdo said:

West Michigan this winter watching everyone else get winter storm watches/warnings

image.thumb.png.f33a1a8ccde7dfa8a3ff3319e88be97f.png

 

image.jpeg

Wild stuff.. At least we have a "chance" for a last-minute bone chucked our way.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

00z Euro...the consistency has been rock steady for N IL over the past few days.  The only difference I see as we get close is the model is a tad colder at the onset when the initial front end thump of snow happens.  It's suggesting nearly 9" for ORD in 6 hours, thus, the increase in totals for this run and better Lehs/LES on the backside.

@indianajohn @Hoosierthis looks like it is coming together for you guys in IN...

1.png

 

00z UKIE...

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

00z EPS...steady as she goes...

5.png

 

@Tom I hope we cash in finally!!! what time frame we looking at? My wife and here friends will be coming home from a girls weekend in New Buffalo Michigan I would like to give them a heads up when to leave on Sunday morning 

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13 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

@Tom I hope we cash in finally!!! what time frame we looking at? My wife and here friends will be coming home from a girls weekend in New Buffalo Michigan I would like to give them a heads up when to leave on Sunday morning 

They should leave Sat afternoon to beat the snow fall.  They may get snowed in if they leave on Sunday.  Roads will be terrible.  Snow should be falling by 5:00-6:00pm in Chicago.

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It's a battle between the CAMs and globals.  The Euro won't budge from its cold solution, but the CAMs just keep getting warmer.

I would be quite happy with 6".

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I think Chicago is in for more than a foot, or near a foot, give or take......Congrats Chicagoan's. Looks almost like a lock w this storm.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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7 minutes ago, hlcater said:

In this instance, I'm gonna side with the CAMs, every time.

Yeah, I'm inclined to go with the warmer CAMs as well.  If it was just the NAM, no, but it's all of them.  Let's hope they're wrong.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Yeah, I'm inclined to go with the warmer CAMs as well.  If it was just the NAM, no, but it's all of them.  Let's hope they're wrong.

One thing that could be working against them is precipitation intensity. Though I dont know how CAMs would overlook something like that. You'd just have to hope that they're underdoing evaporative cooling and other dynamic processes. If this comes in hot and convective, my guess is things are more likely to change to snow earlier than later. I'm gonna hold at my 3" call for IC.

 

I'd also like to add that one more wild card is how much snow exists in the deformation zone on the back side? Some models are more aggressive than others here.

 

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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SMI peeps, hang in there. As for now, it looks like some of us get in on some light snows and some get nothing. Hoping for a push northward "last second." So, as for now, in mby, I might be looking at LES from Port Huron starting Monday and lasting into late Monday, if not into parts of Tuesday, which could add a couple of more inches. This trough should back up enough to give me some extended snowfall. We will see how that goes. In any event, for now, I am looking at a 3-6"+ range, counting Late Saturday nite -Late Monday, or even into Tuesday w that LES kicking in (again, not sure how that will go yet). This forecast is only for the far eastern areas of MI. Fingers crossed!

Note: Today arrives that Pacific energy coming onshore, if not already, so hopefully, models have a better grip on this Winterstorm.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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6 hours ago, whatitdo said:

West Michigan this winter watching everyone else get winter storm watches/warnings

image.thumb.png.f33a1a8ccde7dfa8a3ff3319e88be97f.png

 

image.jpeg

DISCUSSION...(Today through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

- Impactful snow event for parts of the area Sat night - Sun

Many of the latest runs continue to support several inches of snow
for the southern couple of rows of our CWA...generally south of
Interstate 96 with the next storm system. This is the region that
is expected to see the deepest moisture and most favorable
dynamics with this storm system.  However the GFS continues to
show accumulating impactful snow further north with this storm.
Meanwhile the Canadian GPDS suggests we could make a run a
warning snows down south...but this model is an outlier at this
time. Based on all this...it appears we are heading toward an
advisory event for southern and perhaps central parts of the
CWA...so no watch at this time. We will need to continue to
monitor the storm closely as tracks out of CA and into the Central
Plains.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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28 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

DISCUSSION...(Today through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

- Impactful snow event for parts of the area Sat night - Sun

Many of the latest runs continue to support several inches of snow
for the southern couple of rows of our CWA...generally south of
Interstate 96 with the next storm system. This is the region that
is expected to see the deepest moisture and most favorable
dynamics with this storm system.  However the GFS continues to
show accumulating impactful snow further north with this storm.
Meanwhile the Canadian GPDS suggests we could make a run a
warning snows down south...but this model is an outlier at this
time. Based on all this...it appears we are heading toward an
advisory event for southern and perhaps central parts of the
CWA...so no watch at this time. We will need to continue to
monitor the storm closely as tracks out of CA and into the Central
Plains.

Image

This would be our biggest snowfall of the year. GRR NWS ftw!

 

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