Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1

[Hawkeye]

18z HRRR is even warmer than 12z.  It's going mix crazy in Iowa.  It even has rain up to Cedar Rapids now.

[Niko]

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR has 0.80" of precip falling as snow, but only accumulates 5.6".

[Hawkeye]

The CAMs, at least, seem to like the prospect for freezing drizzle out ahead of the main precip shield.

[Hawkeye]

The 18z NAM suddenly lifts a solid area of precip into eastern Iowa well ahead of previous runs, but it's all rain.  The earlier arrival of precip looks like it may just be a quirky run, but overall it's still way too warm for us to get more than a few inches of slop.

[Stacsh]

This has disappointment written all over it.  At least I'm on the far northern edge and will see maybe an 1" of pure snow.  

[Hawkeye]

3k NAM

[CentralNebWeather]

This rain on a deep snowpack won't be fun.  I'm sure glad we are missing this one.

[Tony]

18z NAM

Nice lake enhancement going on this side of the lake on Sunday. Could really pad the totals by several inches on Sunday. 

Looks to snow till 9pm Sunday

[hlcater]

The NAM is a good 2 degrees warmer aloft relative to the rest of guidance. It's an outlier. Though I tend to like the NAM for marginal temp situations, it may be a bit too aggressive with the warm air aloft here.

[VMB443]

Winter Storm Warning for Milwaukee. 5-9 inches. I’ll take every single one of those inches. Please.

[Jayhawker85]

i think this storm is going to be a classic storm that has the classic issues of what has happened this year: too warm! This is a pacific storm bringing with it mild air and warm gulf air which is causing the rain/snow line to push further north. this is turning more into a rain storm for Iowa each model run that comes out

[Yerf]

WSW issued. 2 in one week. It's been along time since that has happedned

 

[bud2380]

DVN issued Winter Storm Warnings, but for 2-4" for much of the area, 4-6" by Dubuque. Calling for freezing rain for the entire area. 

[East Dubzz]

3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

DVN issued Winter Storm Warnings, but for 2-4" for much of the area, 4-6" by Dubuque. Calling for freezing rain for the entire area. 

Sounds like a gross mix.

[james1976]

Warning for me! However its mainly due to the ice. 1-2 tenths of ice and 2-5 inches of snow. Disappointed its not all snow but still pretty awesome to get 2 big storms within days of each other and score a warning from both.

[edhalen]

LOT has some conflicting total ranges.  I realize I'm splitting hairs in all likelihood as we're going to get some good snow with this storm - but note the difference in total ranges on two different graphics on their site.  Both graphics created within 30 minutes of each other.  Interesting...

 

 

[Hawkeye]

DVN discussion... at this point I'm not buying the colder global models at all.

Quote

Given the above scenario there is a significant concern. The
925-850 mb winds are averaging 30-40 kts which is bringing a
freight train of moisture into the area. The concern is that the
warm layer aloft will be pushed further north than what the
models are indicating. If this occurs then ice amounts would be
higher and snow amounts lower. This situation will need to be
watched carefully with both model and real data over the next
12-18 hours.

 

[BMT]

12 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

DVN discussion... at this point I'm not buying the colder global models at all.

 

That would suck if this turns into an ice storm.

[Tony]

Not a very good AFD from LOT regarding the storm. Guess they were in a hurry or they might do one in greater detail in the early morning AFD

[Jaycee]

Thundersnow sounds awesome! I’m moving to North Carolina in a week, and this would be the best way to close out my past few years in Chicago  

[james1976]

1 minute ago, Jaycee said:

Thundersnow sounds awesome! I’m moving to North Carolina in a week, and this would be the best way to close out my past few years in Chicago  

Nice. What parts? My brother lives a bit south of Raleigh. 

[Jaycee]

15 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Nice. What parts? My brother lives a bit south of Raleigh. 

Omg that’s where I’m going! It’s just outside of Raleigh, it’s called Morrisville

[Tony]

21z RAP 

[Bellona]

I'm actually liking where I sit right right. Either way I'm going to get a good deal of snow, a good deal of ice, or a lil of both. I'm ok with that!

[Niko]

Looking like a solid 5-6"+ for my area. I'll accept that! Detroit is at 6"+. Keep in mind, Lake Huron lake effect kicks in on Monday and has it snowing till Tuesday. Amounts could be higher than this. The east side will score nicely. South zone could see 8" or so. Amounts could change, could be more, could be less.

[Sciascia]

LOT scaling back their totals currently. This is their newest snowfall forecast map(s).

[Tom]

34 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

LOT scaling back their totals currently. This is their newest snowfall forecast map(s).

I just saw the latest RPM model and its spitting out 8-10' for Cook/Lake/DuPage into NW IN...this is prob a safer call on their end...

[Hawkeye]

00z HRRR is coming in now.  Every run is warmer than the last.  Like the NAM, the HRRR is now lifting plain ol' rain up to Cedar Rapids.  What a waste of good precip.

[Slowpoke]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

Looking like a solid 5-6"+ for my area. I'll accept that! Detroit is at 6"+. Keep in mind, Lake Huron lake effect kicks in on Monday and has it snowing till Tuesday. Amounts could be higher than this. The east side will score nicely. South zone could see 8" or so. Amounts could change, could be more.

Nice enjoy all that snow Niko, NWS Detroit is only calling for maybe a inch out my way in the thumb. 

[Niko]

17 minutes ago, Slowpoke said:

Nice enjoy all that snow Niko, NWS Detroit is only calling for maybe a inch out my way in the thumb. 

I appreciate it.

I think you will get clipped by Port Huron "Lake Effect" on Monday and possibly into Tuesday, so stay tuned for that. Expect some possible changes in your forecast. Keep an eye out for that in the coming days.

[Hawkeye]

The NAMs have a decent band of snow through Waterloo, but there's not much beyond that.

[ChiTownWeather]

LOT had an interactive Q&A on twitter tonight. It is clear that they are are more conservative from their tone. Nonetheless really interesting to hear directly from the forecasters

 

[Niko]

Oz NAM came in decent!

[Sciascia]

GFS-V16 (or GFS Elect as I like to call it) coming in wetter across N IL.

[Minny_Weather]

Hell yeah, give me my freezing drizzle.

[Minny_Weather]

1 hour ago, ChiTownWeather said:

LOT had an interactive Q&A on twitter tonight. It is clear that they are are more conservative from their tone. Nonetheless really interesting to hear directly from the forecasters

 

I love offices that do this. LCH did this when I lived in Southeast Texas, and I actually learned more from them than I did from my home office of HGX.

[jaster220]

20 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

GFS-V16 (or GFS Elect as I like to call it) coming in wetter across N IL.

Lol at models insisting on a nice dead zone over my region.  Oof!

[bud2380]

Amazing that the night before the storm, where I sit in Eastern Iowa there is no model agreement at all. So I have no idea what to expect. My gut tells me we’re gonna see some rain here. 

[Cfweather]

Waterloo is in a warning for up to 1/4” of ice and 2-5” snow.  Local met doesn’t agree and says a glaze and 4-8”