Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1

[BMT]

Gonna be a nowcast for here in EIA

[gabel23]

Good luck to you all! Hopefully you can score big and continue to build the glacier! 

[bud2380]

Euro really cutting back the snow totals. 

[hlcater]

Man the 00z models are warm. Gonna need to lower my Iowa City call to 2".

[bud2380]

4” would be a best case scenario at this point. 

[Grizzcoat]

The GFS with a coup d'etat on this system? It sure seems that way...

[DSM WeatherNut]

Graupel/sleeting here in Des Moines.  Strange.

[jaster220]

8 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

The GFS with a coup d'etat on this system? It sure seems that way...

IF...it's correct out there I'm hoping it's depiction of more snow here is correct too.

[hlcater]

GFS will likely end up being right but for the wrong reasons.

The reason Iowa gets totally screwed is that there's this inverted trough that extends northward to the MN border that wasn't previously forced to be there. This greatly strengthens the power of WAA, and in such a marginal situation, those few degrees were degrees we couldnt afford to lose.

The CAMs have this feature, while many of the globals do not. Will be interesting to see who is correct. Gonna assume it's the CAMs.

[Minny_Weather]

Yup, that same WAA is actually going to make freezing drizzle an issue here. I'm under a WWA for up to a tenth of an inch of ice.

[Tom]

00z Euro...the spotty nature on the snow map below really does highlight what should be convective snows.  A lot of those who have been missed to the south in IL/IN should score bigly with this system.  Have the tides turned?  

 

 

 

[Tom]

00z EPS...it keeps on increasing snow totals as we approach "showtime"...it's looking better for @jaster220and the rest of the S MI crew...my gut feeling for our S MI peeps to look for that bump NE with the expansive/broad precip shield.  This system has a lot of juice and could very well throw a last minute bone for ya'll.  When was the last time we saw a winter storm hit the S MW/OHV in tandem??  Geeze, gotta be years ago.  Maybe the last time was during the Feb '18 snow blitz???

 

[East Dubzz]

There’s always a curveball.

[Tom]

00z GEFS...eye candy for N IL/IN folks...

[Tom]

00z UKIE...

 

 

NWS NDFD...

[Tom]

D**n, SREF ORD plume up to a 11" mean...MKE 8" mean...GRR  4"...DTW 6"...FWA 8"

 

 

[Tom]

06z GFS...Chitown = Bullseye...old GFS playing catch up...

[Wintersno]

Good luck Tom! Enjoy the weekend 

 

[ChiTownWeather]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

06z GFS...Chitown = Bullseye...old GFS playing catch up...

LOT mentioned the lake would have less of an effect this time around. This shows otherwise, all the way up to GB there is lake enhancement.

[dubuque473]

Still on track for at least 3", we shall see!

[brianc400]

38 minutes ago, ChiTownWeather said:

LOT mentioned the lake would have less of an effect this time around. This shows otherwise, all the way up to GB there is lake enhancement.

From last night’s Twitter discussion:

[BMT]

I honestly don’t know what to expect. My place is smack dab in the middle of linn county.  Which seems to be the line of better snow accumulations on most models.  I’m gonna see a mixed bag for sure, just hoping I get a good changeover time.  

[Tom]

50 minutes ago, ChiTownWeather said:

LOT mentioned the lake would have less of an effect this time around. This shows otherwise, all the way up to GB there is lake enhancement.

Ya, I don’t think these lollipop totals end up verifying. I’m using them as guidance to suggest the heaviest snows may fall in NE IL across N IL.  If we would have had a true Arctic connection, then it’s a different story.  This is a marginal set up.  Last storm was similar and while there was some Lehs, it wasnt overwhelming.

[Tom]

06z Euro...

 

[Niko]

Looks like I will be getting the "Extra Bonus" snow on Monday and possibly into Tuesday b4 all set and done. Lake Huron will provide the goods here from that northerly component coming straight down mby and other eastern locales.

[bud2380]

DVN NWS is siding with the NAM and GFS. Their snow map says 2-5” for Iowa city. And the winter weather advisory says 1-3”. So no consistency in their own forecast. HRRR runs have been showing 3-4” for Iowa City and CR. So still no clue what to expect. The AFD explained nothing about the massive model differences. I find it hard to believe the Euro is this wrong. But we’ll see 

[DSM WeatherNut]

DMX still thinking there is a chance over Central Iowa.
 

Winds become more northerly by this evening as the low swings
northeast across MO into IL. This will bring cooler air back into
the area and eventually lead to a transition over to snow. Models
have honed in on a dominant mid-level deformation axis developing
over central Iowa, mainly along and east of I-35. This will be
the favored zone for accumulating snowfall Saturday night
possibly lingering into Sunday morning. For the most part snow
amounts are generally in the 2-4" range, but some hi-res models
suggest isolated pockets of 4-6" cannot be ruled out.

[Hawkeye]

We are starting out fairly mild, and there is plenty of above-freezing air on our doorstep, so I'm going into this expected rain and mix, plus 2-3" of wet snow.

Update:  Of course, the 12z NAMs are suddenly going a bit colder and snowier again.  However, this simply lifts the NAMs snow up a bit to where other models are.  2-4" seems a good bet across east-central Iowa. 

[Hawkeye]

12z NAM and 3kNAM

[indianajohn]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

06z Euro...

 

 

[VMB443]

I was just reading through LOT's Twitter discussion last night - I am amazed at how many people said, "How much snow will we get in _________?" And then they'd tell them and post the snowfall map - again and again and again.  LOL.  They must have had the patience of saints last night. 

[mlgamer]

Well, here we are on Jan 30 and this morning I have moderate to heavy rain and a temp of 51F.

Oh Winter...where have you gone?

[Tom]

12z GFSv16...keep looking more impressive...someone is going to get clobbered...

 

12z GFS...

[james1976]

@Tomgood luck! You're sitting in a great spot.

I'm still in a warning but ill be surprised if I even get 2 or 3 inches. Bad thermals.

[Tom]

Just now, james1976 said:

@Tomgood luck! You're sitting in a great spot.

I'm still in a warning but ill be surprised if I even get 2 or 3 inches. Bad thermals.

Thanks bud!  I’m looking forward to seeing the wall of snow and winds.

[shakjen]

I’m still in the 8-10 zone out here but I will believe it when I see it. Been on that rain/bust line the past 2 snows. 

[Niko]

SMI is looking juicier, especially, eastern side. I guess models are seeing the goods coming from "Lake Huron" starting Mon and Tues.

[bud2380]

UK bumped totals to 6” in Iowa city 

[indianajohn]

24 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z GFSv16...keep looking more impressive...someone is going to get clobbered...

 

12z GFS...

Snow Blowers Gassed up check! Sleds taken down from the addict Check! Winter Ski gear layed out and ready for the kids check! I think I'm more exited then my kids LMAO

 

[james1976]

Local met still has 4-8 for most of central-eastern iowa