Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1

[bud2380]

2 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Local met still has 4-8 for most of central-eastern iowa 

Which met?

[Tom]

9 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

Snow Blowers Gassed up check! Sleds taken down from the addict Check! Winter Ski gear layed out and ready for the kids check! I think I'm more exited then my kids LMAO

 

Hahaha...Love it!

 

12z Ukie...juice baby!

[jaster220]

GRR map lowered amounts for Marshall by an inch to 3-ish. SR maps like NAM have bumped north but insist on a small shaft zone over 1 county across SMI. Can you guess whose?

[Money]

On 1/27/2021 at 11:00 PM, Hawkeye said:

First, the GFSv16 does drop good snow here.  Second, the GFS has had thermal issues all winter and no other model is showing anything like the GFS warm scenario.  Even the v16 says the current v15 is garbage.

Btw, if all other models had the snow missing Cedar Rapids, but the GFS dumped a foot on CR, I would have no problem calling the GFS scenario garbage.

Still think the GFS is garbage? 

[East Dubzz]

1 minute ago, Money said:

Still think the GFS is garbage? 

I would think so, yes.

[james1976]

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

Which met?

KWWL

[Money]

1 minute ago, East Dubzz said:

I would think so, yes.

GFS has been one of the best models around this year. Some people didn’t like the outcome it showed but it’s not bad at all 

[BMT]

This thing definitely seems slow.  Wasn’t it the slower models with the colder solutions?

[East Dubzz]

7 minutes ago, Money said:

GFS has been one of the best models around this year. Some people didn’t like the outcome it showed but it’s not bad at all 

The thermals for most of the big storms around here so far this year have been pretty terrible, at least. Hawkeye isn’t exactly one to try to wishcast or anything like that, so I believe his criticism is valid. 

[Stormy]

I’ve been getting freezing drizzle for about an hour now. That means the warm air is not to far above my head. I think the NWS and GFS did a good job forecasting this rain and mix already early this week. 

[hlcater]

Deformation band is our wild card. The models that have it are the ones that are generally more robust in E IA.

[james1976]

Frz drizzle here! Temp is 28

[Stormy]

The NWS is now saying only up to 1” total snow for my place. That’s kinda what I’ld say will likely happen here.

[Hawkeye]

30 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

The thermals for most of the big storms around here so far this year have been pretty terrible, at least. Hawkeye isn’t exactly one to try to wishcast or anything like that, so I believe his criticism is valid. 

I tend to be a hopeful pessimist.  I'm always concerned about what could go wrong.  I'm always conservative about my snowfall prediction for Cedar Rapids.

[hlcater]

48 minutes ago, Money said:

GFS has been one of the best models around this year. Some people didn’t like the outcome it showed but it’s not bad at all 

As I outlined above, the GFS is likely to be right for the wrong reasons. It can be a good model and but one thing it is consistently bad at is handing marginal temp scenarios. The way things are panning out make it look right when it isn’t necessarily. 

[Hawkeye]

The last few HRRR runs have gotten a bit colder and moved up the switch to snow in Cedar Rapids by an hour.  We'll finally know how it plays out soon.

[Hawkeye]

Interesting turn from the HRRR for the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area.  It not only switches us to snow a bit sooner, but it also parks the light, but solid deformation zone over us through tomorrow morning.

 

[BMT]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Interesting turn from the HRRR for the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area.  It not only switches us to snow a bit sooner, but it also parks the light, but solid deformation zone over us through tomorrow morning.

 

I’ll take it

[East Dubzz]

I assume that area of less snow right along the Mississippi has to do with mixing?

[bud2380]

Hilarious. Up to 7” now on the HRRR. I don’t recall the last time it was a few hours away from a storm starting and I still had no clue what to expect. 

[hlcater]

That deformation zone is also higher ratio stuff. Profile should yield ratios of 10-12:1 for us on the back side. 7-8:1 this evening. Though not sure what'd we'd see in terms of flake size there. Not really a lot of lift and DGZ saturation starts to decouple about half way through.

[bud2380]

The HRRR is showing 1” per hour rates for Iowa city the first few hours after change over. 

[BMT]

Not sure if it’s related to anything outside but my lights are flickering 

[Hawkeye]

15 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

I assume that area of less snow right along the Mississippi has to do with mixing?

I wouldn't pay much attention to a quirky, one-run, local dry pocket like that.

[Hawkeye]

Everything outside is already wet because of the drizzle and low 30s temperature.  The fluffy top few inches of snow is now wet, packable snow.  Once we warm up a bit more and get into the heavier precip later it's really going to be a sloppy mess.

[bud2380]

Radar scope showing the precip moving in by Ottumwa is changing to snow 

[Hawkeye]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Radar scope showing the precip moving in by Ottumwa is changing to snow 

It's unlikely there is any snow there.  Ottumwa, at 2pm, is at 33º with light rain.  

[Hawkeye]

Both NAMs are now up over 4" for Cedar Rapids and Iowa City.

[Money]

Iowa city going to get hit good 

[VMB443]

Milwaukee just bumped me up from 5-9 to 6-10 not a big jump, but always glad to see totals increasing this close to showtime rather than going the other way.

[BMT]

latest RAP

[Hawkeye]

With the early morning forecast DVN upped Cedar Rapids to 35º this afternoon.  The hourly forecast graphic has CR at 34º at 2pm.  The actual temp at 2pm is still only 30º at the airport and 30/31º here in the city.

[East Dubzz]

Some solid drizzle outside for sure.

[shakjen]

Raining here now

[East Dubzz]

A little thin layer of ice building up on some surfaces here with this drizzle. Kind of gross out right now.

[jcwxguy]

1.65"rain in rain gauge at parents in mcpherson kansas

[shakjen]

3 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

A little thin layer of ice building up on some surfaces here with this drizzle. Kind of gross out right now.

Same here, just had to go out and move my truck and mirrors were iced over and you could hear some sleet hitting the truck

[hlcater]

Precip currently is 99% rain, but I am hearing the occasional ping against the window.

[bud2380]

Precip has begun as rain here. It may be mixing with some sleet. I hearing things bouncing outside but hard to tell if that is rain freezing on contact with the snow or not. 

[hlcater]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Precip has begun as rain here. It may be mixing with some sleet. I hearing things bouncing outside but hard to tell if that is rain freezing on contact with the snow or not. 

Well if you and I are hearing the same thing, we're probably not imagining it lol. My guess is there's some sleet mixed in.