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Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1


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This was a memorable winter storm in a number of different ways but mostly bc of the heavy snowfall rates during the 1st half of the systems life span and then the long lasting duration of the snowfal

I haven't read an AFD from LOT like this in years...looks like a "wall of snow" is heading our way accompanied by gusty winds...similar to what happened with the storm back in late Dec.  If it wasn't

There is SO much snow right now! I was supposedly bullseyed both storms. I’m pretty tall (5’9”) and the snow on the sidewalks is almost up to my hips, pics for reference! (Ignore my super awkward pose

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32 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Shockingly, DVN mentions the warmer GFS and rain potential this weekend.  I can't believe they never learn not to trust that model with thermal profiles.  

What is that definition of insanity?  Wait I’ve heard it before. Oh yeah, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. 

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45 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Shockingly, DVN mentions the warmer GFS and rain potential this weekend.  I can't believe they never learn not to trust that model with thermal profiles.  

Maybe for Southern area?  i have this in my grids:

 image.png.78d16a0b3bd968292aa037422fa7250f.png

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1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

Shockingly, DVN mentions the warmer GFS and rain potential this weekend.  I can't believe they never learn not to trust that model with thermal profiles.  

DMX is doing the same 

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4 minutes ago, Madtown said:

One of these has got to come north....looks like the Feb 5th one may if this one does not

The Feb 4th storm looks to be a biggie 

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20 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Another WWA event for here? Amazeballs!

Could be showing 1 foot, just to deliver 1 inch. You want that instead, lol

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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12 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Hello Euro!!

4D0030F7-737E-40BA-B8ED-90D5C24821AC.jpeg

Mby under 1"?...................ride it!

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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10 hours ago, whatitdo said:

 


I may be bitter and I hope im wrong but I honestly don’t think I will be. Using my jedi instincts on this and it just doesn’t feel like it will pan out despite what happened with todays system. Gotta be different variables at play. Ik @jaster220 feels me lol

Haha, and yes, I do.

When we needed (and expected) the block to deliver, it failed despite the perfect SLP track.

Now watch, the block will show up to play this time and push this thing just south of us.

WPC already seeing it:

410252371_20210126CPChazards_d3_7_contours.thumb.png.d689db33c913eb13f59d6753a05ba799.png

 

Been since the crappy late 80's but I've seen a season like this before. Everything finds a way to FAIL

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Both the 00z Euro/UKIE aren't as aggressive with this system as it pushes east compared to the GFS/GGEM.  After looking at the GEFS/GEPS ensembles, it's hard to believe the Euro/UKIE Op weaken the system so dramatically as it heads into IL/IN.  With that being said, ride the ensembles at this range bc they represent a better picture and agreement overall.  SLP track seems like a lock as we are going to see a classic CO Low ejecting out into the Plains/MW this weekend.

 

1.png

 

Let's look at all the qpf totals from the ensembles....

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_25.png

 

 

gem-ens_apcpn_us_25.png

 

00z EPS/Control...

2.png

3.png

 

4.png

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@Tom

It's snowing in KC right now! Not going to be much, but it is snowing nonetheless. Sticking to everything as temps are around 24 degrees.  Good radar trends now, but doesn't look to last more then a few hours on the heavier band.

Looks like this storm you are showing maps on will be another big rain producer here in KC. Darn it! I'm at 2.21  inches of rain/melted down snow for Jan. Model data showing another .50-1.00 on Saturday for KC. 

If you would have told me back on Dec. 31st that we would have between 2-3 inches of moisture in Jan. but only around 4-5 inches of total snow accumulation, I would have called you crazy! We only average 1.07 inches of moisture in Jan. 

If only we had a colder month. 

Any hope for us here in KC for the month of FEB.?? Storm track as you forecasted was going to be active, we just didn't line it up with cold air.

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1 minute ago, MIKEKC said:

@Tom

It's snowing in KC right now! Not going to be much, but it is snowing nonetheless. Sticking to everything as temps are around 24 degrees.  Good radar trends now, but doesn't look to last more then a few hours on the heavier band.

Looks like this storm you are showing maps on will be another big rain producer here in KC. Darn it! I'm at 2.21  inches of rain/melted down snow for Jan. Model data showing another .50-1.00 on Saturday for KC. 

If you would have told me back on Dec. 31st that we would have between 2-3 inches of moisture in Jan. but only around 4-5 inches of total snow accumulation, I would have called you crazy! We only average 1.07 inches of moisture in Jan. 

If only we had a colder month. 

Any hope for us here in KC for the month of FEB.?? Storm track as you forecasted was going to be active, we just didn't line it up with cold air.

Yes, this will end up being the best met winter month overall for the eastern Sub as all seems to be lining up just what I've been looking for.  I'm going to put together a long range post in the next day or so.  Winter will settle farther south in about 10 days for your area and points east.  Major -NAO (west-based Greenland Block) signal including a -EPO will lead to sustained cold well into March.  Back-loaded winter is underway.

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The 6z EC is perfect. Hold there please.  I just continue to chuckle at how awful the GFS is in storms like this.  And mostly all storms in general, but especially anything related to questionable thermals.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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I am not sure im buying the blocking crap. That was forecasted w the previous storm and instead precip made it further north than predicted. Something to keep in mind.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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The models have generally shown the heaviest totals where the WAA snow band initially blows up, with a drop off north of that.  The morning RDPS would suggest southern Iowa gets the best snow.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

00z GEFS...

1.png

GEFS vs The World for SWMI. Let's see who wins. You mentioned classic CO Low. But looks like it's diving SE instead of due East. Btw what was your final total for the storm there?

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The GDPS is gradually focusing the heavier snow eastward, with weakening west through Iowa and into Nebraska.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_15.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Both the Canadian and GFS showing the heavier snow bands in Central IL to Central IN.  GFS still has no clue on thermals, but just looking at qpf output, you can see those are the areas it is showing the most precip.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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20 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

GEFS vs The World for SWMI. Let's see who wins. You mentioned classic CO Low. But looks like it's diving SE instead of due East. Btw what was your final total for the storm there?

Storm track is exactly due E out of CO but the snow shield is kinda off.  

I got about 6.5” from the last storm.  There was a lot of blowing/drifting and based on local reports that seems right.

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UK is a bit back north with a big hit for the I-80 to HW20 corridor.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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8 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

UKIE with the bulk falling in eastern Iowa between 6pm and midnight. 

I hate to complain considering how fortunate we've been, but this would be more lousy timing.  I want to see the snow fall during daylight.  Daytime snow is much more enjoyable than overnight snow.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Storm track is exactly due E out of CO but the snow shield is kinda off.  

I got about 6.5” from the last storm.  There was a lot of blowing/drifting and based on local reports that seems right.

Nice score bud! Did ORD break the 6" storm drought then?

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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50 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

UK is a bit back north with a big hit for the I-80 to HW20 corridor.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Huge shift by the UK for those of us eastward. Trending??

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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