Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1

[Stacsh]

30 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

Ofc it hits a brick wall on its way over here ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ i give up lol

The storm ongoing did also.  3 days ago there was no chance of snow in MId-Michigan and they got 3-8" so far.  Time will tell.  

[gabel23]

51 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Subtract about an inch in Iowa to account for today's leftover's and some light snow Wednesday.  Des Moines jackpot again.  Ha ha.  About 3-4" in my backyard.  Down from the 11" it showed on the 00z run.  

 

Nice looking band extending from Sioux City right down into my county! If we end up with another 6" of snow it will be tough finding places to put all the snow!!!!!

[bud2380]

I'd like to see the Euro ensembles on this one.  

[snowstorm83]

Just now kind of looking at this. If it ends up far enough SW that SE NE gets 5-8" like some models are showing, might as well just call the National Guard or else I'm not getting out of here until March 

[Clinton]

25 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I'd like to see the Euro ensembles on this one.  

Here is the 12z EPS.  More impressive than I though it would be.

[bud2380]

Thanks Clinton.  Those are really nice and in incredible agreement this far out.  

[Stacsh]

Like this previous storm, it's overplaying the blocking this far out.  

[whatitdo]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

The storm ongoing did also.  3 days ago there was no chance of snow in MId-Michigan and they got 3-8" so far.  Time will tell.  

 

4 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Like this previous storm, it's overplaying the blocking this far out.  

I may be bitter and I hope im wrong but I honestly don’t think I will be. Using my jedi instincts on this and it just doesn’t feel like it will pan out despite what happened with todays system. Gotta be different variables at play. Ik @jaster220 feels me lol

[Niko]

TWC early prediction...

[Niko]

25 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Like this previous storm, it's overplaying the blocking this far out.  

I agree....

 

[Tom]

12z EPS 3"+...

[bud2380]

Shockingly, DVN mentions the warmer GFS and rain potential this weekend.  I can't believe they never learn not to trust that model with thermal profiles.  

[CentralNebWeather]

32 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Shockingly, DVN mentions the warmer GFS and rain potential this weekend.  I can't believe they never learn not to trust that model with thermal profiles.  

What is that definition of insanity?  Wait I’ve heard it before. Oh yeah, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. 

[BMT]

45 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Shockingly, DVN mentions the warmer GFS and rain potential this weekend.  I can't believe they never learn not to trust that model with thermal profiles.  

Maybe for Southern area?  i have this in my grids:

 

[Stormhunter87]

Jim Flowers is saying hold up on those thermals for here.

[Tony]

Getting a little better 

[james1976]

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

Shockingly, DVN mentions the warmer GFS and rain potential this weekend.  I can't believe they never learn not to trust that model with thermal profiles.  

DMX is doing the same 

[Tony]

If everything goes just right this is how the map should look

[Madtown]

One of these has got to come north....looks like the Feb 5th one may if this one does not

[Tony]

4 minutes ago, Madtown said:

One of these has got to come north....looks like the Feb 5th one may if this one does not

The Feb 4th storm looks to be a biggie 

[gimmesnow]

I leave for Florida on the 3rd so the 4th will be the best storm of the year in SE Wisconsin.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Hello Euro!!

[snowstorm83]

Just now, OmahaSnowFan said:

Hello Euro!!

and i oop

[jaster220]

20 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Another WWA event for here? Amazeballs!

Could be showing 1 foot, just to deliver 1 inch. You want that instead, lol

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Hello Euro!!

Mby under 1"?...................ride it!

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, whatitdo said:

 

I may be bitter and I hope im wrong but I honestly don’t think I will be. Using my jedi instincts on this and it just doesn’t feel like it will pan out despite what happened with todays system. Gotta be different variables at play. Ik @jaster220 feels me lol

Haha, and yes, I do.

When we needed (and expected) the block to deliver, it failed despite the perfect SLP track.

Now watch, the block will show up to play this time and push this thing just south of us.

WPC already seeing it:

 

Been since the crappy late 80's but I've seen a season like this before. Everything finds a way to FAIL

[Tom]

00z GFS...

 

00z GFS Para...

 

 

 

 

 

00z GGEM...

 

 

 

00z UKIE...

 

 

 

[Tom]

Both the 00z Euro/UKIE aren't as aggressive with this system as it pushes east compared to the GFS/GGEM.  After looking at the GEFS/GEPS ensembles, it's hard to believe the Euro/UKIE Op weaken the system so dramatically as it heads into IL/IN.  With that being said, ride the ensembles at this range bc they represent a better picture and agreement overall.  SLP track seems like a lock as we are going to see a classic CO Low ejecting out into the Plains/MW this weekend.

 

 

Let's look at all the qpf totals from the ensembles....

 

 

 

00z EPS/Control...

 

[Tom]

00z GEFS...

[MIKEKC]

@Tom

It's snowing in KC right now! Not going to be much, but it is snowing nonetheless. Sticking to everything as temps are around 24 degrees.  Good radar trends now, but doesn't look to last more then a few hours on the heavier band.

Looks like this storm you are showing maps on will be another big rain producer here in KC. Darn it! I'm at 2.21  inches of rain/melted down snow for Jan. Model data showing another .50-1.00 on Saturday for KC. 

If you would have told me back on Dec. 31st that we would have between 2-3 inches of moisture in Jan. but only around 4-5 inches of total snow accumulation, I would have called you crazy! We only average 1.07 inches of moisture in Jan. 

If only we had a colder month. 

Any hope for us here in KC for the month of FEB.?? Storm track as you forecasted was going to be active, we just didn't line it up with cold air.

[Tom]

1 minute ago, MIKEKC said:

@Tom

It's snowing in KC right now! Not going to be much, but it is snowing nonetheless. Sticking to everything as temps are around 24 degrees.  Good radar trends now, but doesn't look to last more then a few hours on the heavier band.

Looks like this storm you are showing maps on will be another big rain producer here in KC. Darn it! I'm at 2.21  inches of rain/melted down snow for Jan. Model data showing another .50-1.00 on Saturday for KC. 

If you would have told me back on Dec. 31st that we would have between 2-3 inches of moisture in Jan. but only around 4-5 inches of total snow accumulation, I would have called you crazy! We only average 1.07 inches of moisture in Jan. 

If only we had a colder month. 

Any hope for us here in KC for the month of FEB.?? Storm track as you forecasted was going to be active, we just didn't line it up with cold air.

Yes, this will end up being the best met winter month overall for the eastern Sub as all seems to be lining up just what I've been looking for.  I'm going to put together a long range post in the next day or so.  Winter will settle farther south in about 10 days for your area and points east.  Major -NAO (west-based Greenland Block) signal including a -EPO will lead to sustained cold well into March.  Back-loaded winter is underway.

[Clinton]

6z Euro Control 

[james1976]

GFS has its usual warm bias here in IA. Or "warmer" at least. The colder Euro thermals seem to be winning out so far this winter so im riding that.

[bud2380]

The 6z EC is perfect. Hold there please.  I just continue to chuckle at how awful the GFS is in storms like this.  And mostly all storms in general, but especially anything related to questionable thermals.  

[shakjen]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro Control 

Never good to be in the bullseye 3 days out. Just like the last storm for me. 

[Niko]

I am not sure im buying the blocking crap. That was forecasted w the previous storm and instead precip made it further north than predicted. Something to keep in mind.

[bud2380]

NAM finally coming into range.

 

[Tom]

From what I could tell, after seeing all the 06z EPS members, a majority show juicy hits and there are more members showing Lehs in SE WI/NE IL.

[Niko]

Looks like a sizable storm.

[bud2380]

RDPS