Tom 16887 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 12z EPS 3"+... 2 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Shockingly, DVN mentions the warmer GFS and rain potential this weekend. I can't believe they never learn not to trust that model with thermal profiles. 2 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4715 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 32 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Shockingly, DVN mentions the warmer GFS and rain potential this weekend. I can't believe they never learn not to trust that model with thermal profiles. What is that definition of insanity? Wait I’ve heard it before. Oh yeah, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BMT 357 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 45 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Shockingly, DVN mentions the warmer GFS and rain potential this weekend. I can't believe they never learn not to trust that model with thermal profiles. Maybe for Southern area? i have this in my grids: Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stormhunter87 969 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Jim Flowers is saying hold up on those thermals for here. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tony 893 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Getting a little better Quote Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3976 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, bud2380 said: Shockingly, DVN mentions the warmer GFS and rain potential this weekend. I can't believe they never learn not to trust that model with thermal profiles. DMX is doing the same Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tony 893 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 If everything goes just right this is how the map should look 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Madtown 1092 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 One of these has got to come north....looks like the Feb 5th one may if this one does not Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tony 893 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 4 minutes ago, Madtown said: One of these has got to come north....looks like the Feb 5th one may if this one does not The Feb 4th storm looks to be a biggie 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
gimmesnow 328 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 I leave for Florida on the 3rd so the 4th will be the best storm of the year in SE Wisconsin. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OmahaSnowFan 1386 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Hello Euro!! 1 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
snowstorm83 2042 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Just now, OmahaSnowFan said: Hello Euro!! and i oop Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" (so far) Average: 25.9" Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8344 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 20 hours ago, FAR_Weather said: Another WWA event for here? Amazeballs! Could be showing 1 foot, just to deliver 1 inch. You want that instead, lol Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8344 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 12 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Hello Euro!! Mby under 1"?...................ride it! Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8344 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 10 hours ago, whatitdo said: I may be bitter and I hope im wrong but I honestly don’t think I will be. Using my jedi instincts on this and it just doesn’t feel like it will pan out despite what happened with todays system. Gotta be different variables at play. Ik @jaster220 feels me lol Haha, and yes, I do. When we needed (and expected) the block to deliver, it failed despite the perfect SLP track. Now watch, the block will show up to play this time and push this thing just south of us. WPC already seeing it: Been since the crappy late 80's but I've seen a season like this before. Everything finds a way to FAIL 1 1 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 00z GFS... 00z GFS Para... 00z GGEM... 00z UKIE... 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Both the 00z Euro/UKIE aren't as aggressive with this system as it pushes east compared to the GFS/GGEM. After looking at the GEFS/GEPS ensembles, it's hard to believe the Euro/UKIE Op weaken the system so dramatically as it heads into IL/IN. With that being said, ride the ensembles at this range bc they represent a better picture and agreement overall. SLP track seems like a lock as we are going to see a classic CO Low ejecting out into the Plains/MW this weekend. Let's look at all the qpf totals from the ensembles.... 00z EPS/Control... 4 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 00z GEFS... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MIKEKC 413 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 @Tom It's snowing in KC right now! Not going to be much, but it is snowing nonetheless. Sticking to everything as temps are around 24 degrees. Good radar trends now, but doesn't look to last more then a few hours on the heavier band. Looks like this storm you are showing maps on will be another big rain producer here in KC. Darn it! I'm at 2.21 inches of rain/melted down snow for Jan. Model data showing another .50-1.00 on Saturday for KC. If you would have told me back on Dec. 31st that we would have between 2-3 inches of moisture in Jan. but only around 4-5 inches of total snow accumulation, I would have called you crazy! We only average 1.07 inches of moisture in Jan. If only we had a colder month. Any hope for us here in KC for the month of FEB.?? Storm track as you forecasted was going to be active, we just didn't line it up with cold air. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, MIKEKC said: @Tom It's snowing in KC right now! Not going to be much, but it is snowing nonetheless. Sticking to everything as temps are around 24 degrees. Good radar trends now, but doesn't look to last more then a few hours on the heavier band. Looks like this storm you are showing maps on will be another big rain producer here in KC. Darn it! I'm at 2.21 inches of rain/melted down snow for Jan. Model data showing another .50-1.00 on Saturday for KC. If you would have told me back on Dec. 31st that we would have between 2-3 inches of moisture in Jan. but only around 4-5 inches of total snow accumulation, I would have called you crazy! We only average 1.07 inches of moisture in Jan. If only we had a colder month. Any hope for us here in KC for the month of FEB.?? Storm track as you forecasted was going to be active, we just didn't line it up with cold air. Yes, this will end up being the best met winter month overall for the eastern Sub as all seems to be lining up just what I've been looking for. I'm going to put together a long range post in the next day or so. Winter will settle farther south in about 10 days for your area and points east. Major -NAO (west-based Greenland Block) signal including a -EPO will lead to sustained cold well into March. Back-loaded winter is underway. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 6z Euro Control 3 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3976 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 GFS has its usual warm bias here in IA. Or "warmer" at least. The colder Euro thermals seem to be winning out so far this winter so im riding that. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 The 6z EC is perfect. Hold there please. I just continue to chuckle at how awful the GFS is in storms like this. And mostly all storms in general, but especially anything related to questionable thermals. 2 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
shakjen 137 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, Clinton said: 6z Euro Control Never good to be in the bullseye 3 days out. Just like the last storm for me. 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted January 27 Author Report Share Posted January 27 I am not sure im buying the blocking crap. That was forecasted w the previous storm and instead precip made it further north than predicted. Something to keep in mind. 1 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 NAM finally coming into range. 1 1 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 From what I could tell, after seeing all the 06z EPS members, a majority show juicy hits and there are more members showing Lehs in SE WI/NE IL. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted January 27 Author Report Share Posted January 27 Looks like a sizable storm. 1 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 RDPS 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Don't worry James, it's just barely getting to the storm. The model only goes out 84 hours. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3976 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: Don't worry James, it's just barely getting to the storm. The model only goes out 84 hours. Wow I didn't know that.....awesome thanks Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 The models have generally shown the heaviest totals where the WAA snow band initially blows up, with a drop off north of that. The morning RDPS would suggest southern Iowa gets the best snow. Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8344 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 7 hours ago, Tom said: 00z GEFS... GEFS vs The World for SWMI. Let's see who wins. You mentioned classic CO Low. But looks like it's diving SE instead of due East. Btw what was your final total for the storm there? Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 The GDPS is gradually focusing the heavier snow eastward, with weakening west through Iowa and into Nebraska. 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Both the Canadian and GFS showing the heavier snow bands in Central IL to Central IN. GFS still has no clue on thermals, but just looking at qpf output, you can see those are the areas it is showing the most precip. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 GDPS Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 20 minutes ago, jaster220 said: GEFS vs The World for SWMI. Let's see who wins. You mentioned classic CO Low. But looks like it's diving SE instead of due East. Btw what was your final total for the storm there? Storm track is exactly due E out of CO but the snow shield is kinda off. I got about 6.5” from the last storm. There was a lot of blowing/drifting and based on local reports that seems right. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tony 893 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 I'm riding the GFS Para till it screws me over 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 UK is a bit back north with a big hit for the I-80 to HW20 corridor. 2 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
East Dubzz 1312 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 I’d take another fresh layer of snow. I actually feel quite satisfied with the several strong snowstorm we’ve gotten this year. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
East Dubzz 1312 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: UK is a bit back north with a big hit for the I-80 to HW20 corridor. Sh*t. Lock that puppy in and let’s call it a day. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 UKIE with the bulk falling in eastern Iowa between 6pm and midnight. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 8 minutes ago, bud2380 said: UKIE with the bulk falling in eastern Iowa between 6pm and midnight. I hate to complain considering how fortunate we've been, but this would be more lousy timing. I want to see the snow fall during daylight. Daytime snow is much more enjoyable than overnight snow. 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Tony 893 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 41 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: UK is a bit back north with a big hit for the I-80 to HW20 corridor. Too dry 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8344 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, Tom said: Storm track is exactly due E out of CO but the snow shield is kinda off. I got about 6.5” from the last storm. There was a lot of blowing/drifting and based on local reports that seems right. Nice score bud! Did ORD break the 6" storm drought then? Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3976 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 The trend of this thing drying up to the west can stop now Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8344 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 50 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: UK is a bit back north with a big hit for the I-80 to HW20 corridor. Huge shift by the UK for those of us eastward. Trending?? 1 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
shakjen 137 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Don’t keep going north like the last one. Only ended up with 2” after having a winter storm warning and 4-7 predicted. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 00z UKIE full run...it keeps it snowing over here till Tuesday... 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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