Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1

[james1976]

Waterloo needs 7.1" out of this to become the snowiest January on record.

[Bellona]

3 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Waterloo needs 7.1" out of this to become the snowiest January on record.

I'll take that!!!

[hlcater]

As far as IC goes, thinking the best snow will be a bit to the northeast of me. I'd like where I was sitting if I were along hwy 20. 

[hlcater]

I'd also like to say that you might want to pay particular attention to the NAM as it gets in range as it does well with these marginal temp/evap cooling dependent snow systems.

[Niko]

NOAA says, there is a chance for "Heavy snow" for SEMI.....but not ironed out yet, which is totally acceptable at this range.

Quote: This system has the potential to bring snowfall to parts of the area
by late Saturday night into Sunday/Sunday night. However, the
northern extent of heavy snowfall that will be associated with this
system remains highly in question as the aforementioned high
pressure, centered over Quebec by late in the weekend, will act to
shunt the northeastward progress of this system as it encroaches on
the region. This will become the biggest challenge of the forecast
in the coming days. With the high pressure centered more to the east
by that time, temperatures will moderate to some degree with highs
closer to 30 from Sunday into early next week and lows in the teens
to around 20.

Btw:  I dont recall the previous storm having any hard time moving north, meanwhile it was forecasted to stay south........

[westMJim]

I still think that this system will be one to keep a eye on. For one there are no out of this world snow fall maps for anyone to post. And thus no big hype.  

[Hawkeye]

Long-range NAM is a bit north of most models.  After what happened with the last storm (and many others in the past) I don't want to be on the southern edge.

[Tony]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Long-range NAM is a bit north of most models

And that's only through 84hr with more to come

[snowstorm83]

Interesting to see NAM also picking up on the snow blip in E NE. I'd take 2-4" to mitigate the slow melting over the next week. 

[Hawkeye]

FWIW, the ICON has the same good low track as other models, but has the mix all the way up to near the MN/IA border when the precip first breaks out.  The best snow falls over ne IA.

[james1976]

DMX is basically saying its a toss between Euro and GFS. That would suck if the GFS won this battle lol.

Also mentioned the gulf will be wide open so if its snow it could be another biggie. 

[bud2380]

RDPS

 

[Hawkeye]

DVN doesn't really have too much to add to the discussion.  Heavy snow is likely in the area, but the exact details will depend on how far north the mid level warmth gets.

[Hawkeye]

18z RDPS.... obviously, more to go after these images.

 

[bud2380]

18z GFS way north and east.  

[Tony]

Looks to be taking on a negative tilt if I am seeing this correctly

[bud2380]

GFS v 16 hits Chicago hard

 

[Hawkeye]

Maybe the widespread snow cover will help keep this system a bit farther south?

[bud2380]

We've seen models trend further south at this distance all winter, so wouldn't surprise me.  

[hlcater]

19 minutes ago, Tony said:

Looks to be taking on a negative tilt if I am seeing this correctly

 

More of a neutral tilt closed low aloft. Starts negative in the 4 corners, then closes off.

[Niko]

Chicago gets clobbered! MI peeps as well!

I think I like this new upgraded version better

[Stormy]

5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I hate to complain considering how fortunate we've been, but this would be more lousy timing.  I want to see the snow fall during daylight.  Daytime snow is much more enjoyable than overnight snow.

The last storm had quite a bit of daylight snow for me. But I realize the good snow started later in C.R.

[Stormy]

3 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Slight shift north in eastern IA as well on the Euro mean.  Still pretty good here.  I like where CR is.  20 miles to the south, it's starting to get a little bit border line.  It would only take another 30 mile shift north on the Euro to be right on the edge.  Lots of time to work out those details though.  Let's see if DVN finally starts talking about this storm with a little more urgency.  

I’ve been borderline with p/type issues all winter. 

[james1976]

Winter Storm 'Orlena' is what TWC is calling this.

[Grizzcoat]

18Z Euro now getting in range.

[shakjen]

16 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

18Z Euro now getting in range.

Hate being under that bright pink bullseye, in north central Illinois, this far out

[whatitdo]

Can someone post the 18z eps mean for michigan? 

[BMT]

0z NAM

[BMT]

0z RDPS

 

[BMT]

GFS super warm

[Hawkeye]

Just now, BMT said:

GFS super warm

GFS is garbage for this system.  Same low track as other models, but has mix through the entire storm for Cedar Rapids.  Not going to happen.

[snowstorm83]

Still basically no precip in Lincoln on the GFS, which I would take over a potential cold rain I guess. But the GFS was wandering around blindfolded with pants around its ankles until 48 hrs out with the last storm. Not going to be a biggie here regardless, but should keep in mind farther east. 

[chances14]

GFS thermals are not to be trusted

[BMT]

GFSV16 much better though.  Still snowing for many

[james1976]

I'm riding the Euro. F-it

[Hawkeye]

4 minutes ago, BMT said:

GFSV16 much better though.  Still snowing for many

GFSv16 is close to other models, but still has some patchiness in the snow band over Iowa because of some odd mixing issues.

[Niko]

Its looking like a prolong snowevent for my neck of the woods and some others peeps as well. I might be looking at LES early next week, which could have it snowing here till possibly Tuesday afternoon. Have to see how that goes.

[Niko]

That piece of energy that will affect some of us this weekend is still offshore out in the Pacific and should make it onshore sometime tomorrow. Models will at that point have a much clearer picture of the situation.

[bud2380]

The UK shows a low of -17 tomorrow morning for Cedar Rapids. I’m thinking it’s just a smidge off. Forecast is -3. 

[Money]

40 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

GFSv16 is close to other models, but still has some patchiness in the snow band over Iowa because of some odd mixing issues.

Any reason  why GFS is garbage outside of it because it’s not showing snow in your area?