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Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1


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Just now, BMT said:

GFS super warm

GFS is garbage for this system.  Same low track as other models, but has mix through the entire storm for Cedar Rapids.  Not going to happen.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This was a memorable winter storm in a number of different ways but mostly bc of the heavy snowfall rates during the 1st half of the systems life span and then the long lasting duration of the snowfal

I haven't read an AFD from LOT like this in years...looks like a "wall of snow" is heading our way accompanied by gusty winds...similar to what happened with the storm back in late Dec.  If it wasn't

There is SO much snow right now! I was supposedly bullseyed both storms. I’m pretty tall (5’9”) and the snow on the sidewalks is almost up to my hips, pics for reference! (Ignore my super awkward pose

Posted Images

Still basically no precip in Lincoln on the GFS, which I would take over a potential cold rain I guess. But the GFS was wandering around blindfolded with pants around its ankles until 48 hrs out with the last storm. Not going to be a biggie here regardless, but should keep in mind farther east. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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4 minutes ago, BMT said:

GFSV16 much better though.  Still snowing for many

GFSv16 is close to other models, but still has some patchiness in the snow band over Iowa because of some odd mixing issues.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Its looking like a prolong snowevent for my neck of the woods and some others peeps as well. I might be looking at LES early next week, which could have it snowing here till possibly Tuesday afternoon. Have to see how that goes.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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That piece of energy that will affect some of us this weekend is still offshore out in the Pacific and should make it onshore sometime tomorrow. Models will at that point have a much clearer picture of the situation.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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40 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

GFSv16 is close to other models, but still has some patchiness in the snow band over Iowa because of some odd mixing issues.

Any reason  why GFS is garbage outside of it because it’s not showing snow in your area?

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3 minutes ago, Money said:

Any reason  why GFS is garbage outside of it because it’s not showing snow in your area?

You mean besides the many well documented cases of it being horrible? The NWS flat out stating to throw out the GFS on storms this winter?  Or how every time there has been a storm with borderline thermals the GFS has been easily the most wrong of any global model?  Besides those, I can’t think of any reasons. 

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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14 minutes ago, Money said:

Any reason  why GFS is garbage outside of it because it’s not showing snow in your area?

First, the GFSv16 does drop good snow here.  Second, the GFS has had thermal issues all winter and no other model is showing anything like the GFS warm scenario.  Even the v16 says the current v15 is garbage.

Btw, if all other models had the snow missing Cedar Rapids, but the GFS dumped a foot on CR, I would have no problem calling the GFS scenario garbage.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z UKIE is juiced with moisture...looking pretty good for Chicago peeps and members across N IL...it's also looking like this will be another long duration event with some lull periods but I like that fact that there appears this system will have the ULL low track right overhead which should also aid in LES/LEHS and this side of LM.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

6-hr increments...with 2m temps in the upper 20's and cold 850's, this should equate to better snow ratios that we saw over here in N IL from the last storm.

qpf_006h.us_mw.png

sfct.us_mw.png

 

500hv.conus.png

 

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00Z Euro Kuchera- noticeable shift E in IA- (through HR 90)image.thumb.png.f40f47009e07c54fd9d39401350305b4.png(only

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Yeah, the Euro has consistently chopped back the western end of the snow band.  Over the last three runs Omaha has gone from 6" to 3" to nearly 0.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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No one posted the CMC- Flowers likes it better than the Euro and it did really well with last system up until the end. snku_acc.us_mw.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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00z Euro coming in hot for Chicagoland...the spotty nature of the snow map below is indicative of convection....TSSN???

 

1.png

 

I'm also encouraged to see the models really highlighting on the back end LES signal for SE WI/NE IL...S MI/N IN members look to finally share in the wealth with this storm.

 

 

1.gif

 

 

2.png

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Who would like to be where Jim Cantore is in South Tahoe??  Back in my High School years, I took a trip to Heavenly Ski Resort in Tahoe, CA.  I must say, the majestic beauty of the lake and mountains is absolutely wonderful.   I'd love to be there right now.  3-5"/hr rates anyone? 

 
 
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Boy, the EPS is coming in juiced and trending wetter/snowier as we get closer.  Great signs all together.  It has been drying out on the west end and shifting E each run.  Getting closer to what the GEFS/GEPS have been showing.

1.png

3.png

 

 

 

2.png

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All of those maps that Tom posted are straight up offensive.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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06Z Euro Kuchera- this run was back W and N slightlyimage.thumb.png.cc4b5192a554f27eaf112e39e395ed4a.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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8 hours ago, bud2380 said:

The UK shows a low of -17 tomorrow morning for Cedar Rapids. 🤔 I’m thinking it’s just a smidge off. Forecast is -3. 

Probably a little cool But Waterloo this AM had dropped to -12F.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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DMX only talking advisory criteria with 8:1 ratios.

At this point, amounts remain mostly in advisory criteria although
forecast snow ratios are averaging around 8:1 which seems low for
late January, even with this relatively "warm" system.
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Just went through looking at all the model runs and man are they juiced...except for the lonely GFS. I know lake enhancement can be funky on this side of the lake but you have to take notice especially when the Euro is showing this 3 days out. 

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1 hour ago, Jaycee said:

This will be insane on top of the 8” I got 2 days ago! Hope the models continue with this trend 💖

Same here!

Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter


 


78.1"  Total snowfall


February Snowfall 32.5"


City salt usage  : 12,211 tons


Days of measurable snow  : 40

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21 minutes ago, Tony said:

Just went through looking at all the model runs and man are they juiced...except for the lonely GFS. I know lake enhancement can be funky on this side of the lake but you have to take notice especially when the Euro is showing this 3 days out. 

Per the NAM, that lake means business. Just look in Wisconsin how far inland it reaches. I'm sure most is lake enhancement but still

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There could be a sharp drop-off south of Iowa City.  I hope this thing doesn't inch north any farther.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GRR:   Not one model I've seen has high snow impacts along I-96 in Michigan.  Am I missing something?  Is this going North and the models aren't showing it yet?

- Trend toward higher potential for impacts Sat Night - Sun

Models are coming into better agreement with the coverage and
location of the snow with the next storm system for Sat Night into
Sunday. Overall the latest guidance is favoring accumulating snow
across much of the central and southern parts of the CWA. Highest
amounts are shown to be along and south of I-96. Impacts are
looking increasingly likely...with several inches of snow now
possible. This system could continue to trend upward from an
impact perspective with time as models are now starting to show
better FGEN and some Gulf moisture getting drawn into it. Based on
this we will increase POPs to likely or higher for these
locations and add a few inches of snow to the forecast.
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1 minute ago, Stacsh said:

GRR:   Not one model I've seen has high snow impacts along I-96 in Michigan.  Am I missing something?  Is this going North and the models aren't showing it yet?


- Trend toward higher potential for impacts Sat Night - Sun

Models are coming into better agreement with the coverage and
location of the snow with the next storm system for Sat Night into
Sunday. Overall the latest guidance is favoring accumulating snow
across much of the central and southern parts of the CWA. Highest
amounts are shown to be along and south of I-96. Impacts are
looking increasingly likely...with several inches of snow now
possible. This system could continue to trend upward from an
impact perspective with time as models are now starting to show
better FGEN and some Gulf moisture getting drawn into it. Based on
this we will increase POPs to likely or higher for these
locations and add a few inches of snow to the forecast.

i saw that. you know, they were the first in the area to say heaviest snow amounts would be north of i94 (instead of south) for the last system. 

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3k NAM has mixing issues up to Cedar Rapids :(  At this point, I think I'd prefer to be near hw20 between Waterloo and Dubuque.

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_57.png

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_58.png

 

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The NAMs have some solid snow back into western Iowa and even southeast Nebraska.  Last night's Euro removed the snow from that area.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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