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Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1

Niko

By Niko
in East of the Rockies

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bud2380 Grand Master

bud2380

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Money said:

Any reason  why GFS is garbage outside of it because it’s not showing snow in your area?

You mean besides the many well documented cases of it being horrible? The NWS flat out stating to throw out the GFS on storms this winter?  Or how every time there has been a storm with borderline thermals the GFS has been easily the most wrong of any global model?  Besides those, I can’t think of any reasons. 

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Tom
Tom

This was a memorable winter storm in a number of different ways but mostly bc of the heavy snowfall rates during the 1st half of the systems life span and then the long lasting duration of the snowfal

Tom
Tom

I haven't read an AFD from LOT like this in years...looks like a "wall of snow" is heading our way accompanied by gusty winds...similar to what happened with the storm back in late Dec.  If it wasn't

Jaycee
Jaycee

There is SO much snow right now! I was supposedly bullseyed both storms. I’m pretty tall (5’9”) and the snow on the sidewalks is almost up to my hips, pics for reference! (Ignore my super awkward pose

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Money said:

Any reason  why GFS is garbage outside of it because it’s not showing snow in your area?

First, the GFSv16 does drop good snow here.  Second, the GFS has had thermal issues all winter and no other model is showing anything like the GFS warm scenario.  Even the v16 says the current v15 is garbage.

Btw, if all other models had the snow missing Cedar Rapids, but the GFS dumped a foot on CR, I would have no problem calling the GFS scenario garbage.

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season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

00z UKIE is juiced with moisture...looking pretty good for Chicago peeps and members across N IL...it's also looking like this will be another long duration event with some lull periods but I like that fact that there appears this system will have the ULL low track right overhead which should also aid in LES/LEHS and this side of LM.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

6-hr increments...with 2m temps in the upper 20's and cold 850's, this should equate to better snow ratios that we saw over here in N IL from the last storm.

qpf_006h.us_mw.png

sfct.us_mw.png

 

500hv.conus.png

 

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Grizzcoat Grand Master

Grizzcoat

Posted
Posted

00Z Euro Kuchera- noticeable shift E in IA- (through HR 90)image.thumb.png.f40f47009e07c54fd9d39401350305b4.png(only

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

Yeah, the Euro has consistently chopped back the western end of the snow band.  Over the last three runs Omaha has gone from 6" to 3" to nearly 0.

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season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

Grizzcoat Grand Master

Grizzcoat

Posted
Posted

No one posted the CMC- Flowers likes it better than the Euro and it did really well with last system up until the end. snku_acc.us_mw.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

00z Euro coming in hot for Chicagoland...the spotty nature of the snow map below is indicative of convection....TSSN???

 

1.png

 

I'm also encouraged to see the models really highlighting on the back end LES signal for SE WI/NE IL...S MI/N IN members look to finally share in the wealth with this storm.

 

 

1.gif

 

 

2.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Who would like to be where Jim Cantore is in South Tahoe??  Back in my High School years, I took a trip to Heavenly Ski Resort in Tahoe, CA.  I must say, the majestic beauty of the lake and mountains is absolutely wonderful.   I'd love to be there right now.  3-5"/hr rates anyone? 

 
 
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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Boy, the EPS is coming in juiced and trending wetter/snowier as we get closer.  Great signs all together.  It has been drying out on the west end and shifting E each run.  Getting closer to what the GEFS/GEPS have been showing.

1.png

3.png

 

 

 

2.png

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Grizzcoat Grand Master

Grizzcoat

Posted
Posted

06 GDPS or CMC- image.png.780da555b8fa65107d5ffdb5a4001f17.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Grizzcoat Grand Master

Grizzcoat

Posted
Posted

06Z Euro Kuchera- this run was back W and N slightlyimage.thumb.png.cc4b5192a554f27eaf112e39e395ed4a.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Grizzcoat Grand Master

Grizzcoat

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, bud2380 said:

The UK shows a low of -17 tomorrow morning for Cedar Rapids. 🤔 I’m thinking it’s just a smidge off. Forecast is -3. 

Probably a little cool But Waterloo this AM had dropped to -12F.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

james1976 Grand Master

james1976

Posted
Posted

DMX only talking advisory criteria with 8:1 ratios. 

At this point, amounts remain mostly in advisory criteria although
forecast snow ratios are averaging around 8:1 which seems low for
late January, even with this relatively "warm" system.
Tony Collaborator

Tony

Posted
Posted

Just went through looking at all the model runs and man are they juiced...except for the lonely GFS. I know lake enhancement can be funky on this side of the lake but you have to take notice especially when the Euro is showing this 3 days out. 

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dubuque473 Newbie

dubuque473

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Jaycee said:

This will be insane on top of the 8” I got 2 days ago! Hope the models continue with this trend 💖

Same here!

Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter


 


78.1"  Total snowfall


February Snowfall 32.5"


City salt usage  : 12,211 tons


Days of measurable snow  : 40

Tony Collaborator

Tony

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Tony said:

Just went through looking at all the model runs and man are they juiced...except for the lonely GFS. I know lake enhancement can be funky on this side of the lake but you have to take notice especially when the Euro is showing this 3 days out. 

Per the NAM, that lake means business. Just look in Wisconsin how far inland it reaches. I'm sure most is lake enhancement but still

Jarod Contributor

Jarod

Posted
Posted

I'm still rooting for a northern shift. If it goes south, maybe we can pick up a few extra inches on the tail end from lake effect.

Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

There could be a sharp drop-off south of Iowa City.  I hope this thing doesn't inch north any farther.

season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

Stacsh Proficient

Stacsh

Posted
Posted

GRR:   Not one model I've seen has high snow impacts along I-96 in Michigan.  Am I missing something?  Is this going North and the models aren't showing it yet? 

- Trend toward higher potential for impacts Sat Night - Sun

Models are coming into better agreement with the coverage and
location of the snow with the next storm system for Sat Night into
Sunday. Overall the latest guidance is favoring accumulating snow
across much of the central and southern parts of the CWA. Highest
amounts are shown to be along and south of I-96. Impacts are
looking increasingly likely...with several inches of snow now
possible. This system could continue to trend upward from an
impact perspective with time as models are now starting to show
better FGEN and some Gulf moisture getting drawn into it. Based on
this we will increase POPs to likely or higher for these
locations and add a few inches of snow to the forecast.
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whatitdo Newbie

whatitdo

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Stacsh said:

GRR:   Not one model I've seen has high snow impacts along I-96 in Michigan.  Am I missing something?  Is this going North and the models aren't showing it yet? 


- Trend toward higher potential for impacts Sat Night - Sun

Models are coming into better agreement with the coverage and
location of the snow with the next storm system for Sat Night into
Sunday. Overall the latest guidance is favoring accumulating snow
across much of the central and southern parts of the CWA. Highest
amounts are shown to be along and south of I-96. Impacts are
looking increasingly likely...with several inches of snow now
possible. This system could continue to trend upward from an
impact perspective with time as models are now starting to show
better FGEN and some Gulf moisture getting drawn into it. Based on
this we will increase POPs to likely or higher for these
locations and add a few inches of snow to the forecast.

i saw that. you know, they were the first in the area to say heaviest snow amounts would be north of i94 (instead of south) for the last system. 

Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

3k NAM has mixing issues up to Cedar Rapids :(  At this point, I think I'd prefer to be near hw20 between Waterloo and Dubuque.

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_57.png

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_58.png

 

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season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

The NAMs have some solid snow back into western Iowa and even southeast Nebraska.  Last night's Euro removed the snow from that area.

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season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

Niko Grand Master

Niko

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Sampling starts tomorrow as that piece of energy finally arrives onshore in the Pacific.

Snowfall for Winter 2025 -26                  

October 2025: 0.0"

November 2025: 6.7"                         

December 2025: 10.9"                       Coldest Temp: -15F & -10F for Detroit 

January 2026: 17.1"                           

February 2026: 4.9"                             Detroit Snowfall: 40.0"

March 2026: 0.4"                                  New Haven: 42" , ~  42"

April 2026: Trace

May: Trace                                             BN Snowfall this winter!

                                                                 Average is 44.1"

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