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Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1

Niko

By Niko
in East of the Rockies

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

I'm a bit concerned about the CR/IC area, but not because of the GFS.

season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Tom
Tom

This was a memorable winter storm in a number of different ways but mostly bc of the heavy snowfall rates during the 1st half of the systems life span and then the long lasting duration of the snowfal

Tom
Tom

I haven't read an AFD from LOT like this in years...looks like a "wall of snow" is heading our way accompanied by gusty winds...similar to what happened with the storm back in late Dec.  If it wasn't

Jaycee
Jaycee

There is SO much snow right now! I was supposedly bullseyed both storms. I’m pretty tall (5’9”) and the snow on the sidewalks is almost up to my hips, pics for reference! (Ignore my super awkward pose

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bud2380 Grand Master

bud2380

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm a bit concerned about the CR/IC area, but not because of the GFS.

Yeah, even the Euro has come further north with the warm air.  Still just far enough south to be ok, but another 30 miles and it starts to be trouble.  It's gonna be a close call i think. 

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Niko Grand Master

Niko

Posted
  • Author
Posted
47 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

GRR:   Not one model I've seen has high snow impacts along I-96 in Michigan.  Am I missing something?  Is this going North and the models aren't showing it yet? 



- Trend toward higher potential for impacts Sat Night - Sun

Models are coming into better agreement with the coverage and
location of the snow with the next storm system for Sat Night into
Sunday. Overall the latest guidance is favoring accumulating snow
across much of the central and southern parts of the CWA. Highest
amounts are shown to be along and south of I-96. Impacts are
looking increasingly likely...with several inches of snow now
possible. This system could continue to trend upward from an
impact perspective with time as models are now starting to show
better FGEN and some Gulf moisture getting drawn into it. Based on
this we will increase POPs to likely or higher for these
locations and add a few inches of snow to the forecast.

My weather office explains a similar situation w a good chance of accumulating snowfall here in SEMI as well. Expect models to react much different tomorrow as that energy goes onshore.

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Snowfall for Winter 2025 -26                  

October 2025: 0.0"

November 2025: 6.7"                         

December 2025: 10.9"                       Coldest Temp: -15F & -10F for Detroit 

January 2026: 17.1"                           

February 2026: 4.9"                             Detroit Snowfall: 40.0"

March 2026: 0.4"                                  New Haven: 42" , ~  42"

April 2026: Trace

May: Trace                                             BN Snowfall this winter!

                                                                 Average is 44.1"

Niko Grand Master

Niko

Posted
  • Author
Posted

East Coast will get hit hard w hvy snowfall next week. Philly-Bos w over a foot. My residents in NYC are already preparing. Looks like a secondary will form over the Delmarva Peninsula and explode taking the classic track NE of the big cities.

Snowfall for Winter 2025 -26                  

October 2025: 0.0"

November 2025: 6.7"                         

December 2025: 10.9"                       Coldest Temp: -15F & -10F for Detroit 

January 2026: 17.1"                           

February 2026: 4.9"                             Detroit Snowfall: 40.0"

March 2026: 0.4"                                  New Haven: 42" , ~  42"

April 2026: Trace

May: Trace                                             BN Snowfall this winter!

                                                                 Average is 44.1"

jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, whatitdo said:

I just want a snowfall greater than 3 inches. Is that too much to ask? I haven't had a day with more than 2 inches of 24 hr snowfall yet

Need a small bump north on models. Then another "Now cast" bump via WAA doing it's thing. Best shot at a 98-99 analog of one biggie in the sea of mild nothing-burgers

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Winter 2025-26 Snow Total = 68.1"   Largest Storm: 7.5" (11/29-30)    Snow/Ice Headlines: 20!!      Oct: 0.0 Nov:10.1 Dec: 17.1 Jan: 21.9  Feb: 7.1 Mar: 11.6 Apr: 0.3 (116% Normal Season)

Avg = 58.6"  (Harrison): 2024-25 = 55.3"   2023-24 = 53.1"             Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"          Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows) I have personally experienced: Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1995, Nov 1989, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973

snowstorm83 Experienced

snowstorm83

Posted
Posted

3km NAM also liking Southeast Neb for a good backend thumping. NAM can be funky at this range, but the GFS isn't any better. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Grizzcoat Grand Master

Grizzcoat

Posted
Posted

Uncle Ukie coming over. Staying for awhile. (staying the same) sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

snowstorm83 Experienced

snowstorm83

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

Uncle Ukie coming over. Staying for awhile. (staying the same) sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Yeah I think that might be close to the actual solution. DSM gonna be pushing 50" for the season by this weekend lol.

GFS<NAM<UK/EURO

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Grizzcoat Grand Master

Grizzcoat

Posted
Posted

^ I highly doubt DSM records 6"+ from this. More like 3-5". 4" would make it very close to the 2nd All Time snowiest DEC/JAN.

*** And that 17 day deal I stated awhile back for DSM--- Dec 12 - Dec 29th, Jan 15th and FEB 1st  (accumulating Snows over 5" each time other that FEB 1st ) is only one day off. Something is brewing in the FEB 16th time frame. As the recent 1' showed, it doesn't matter inbewteen in an active pattern - but I would bet a significant amount of jing on accumulating snow in C.IA around Feb 16th. The cold air will be there.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

james1976 Grand Master

james1976

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

^ I highly doubt DSM records 6"+ from this. More like 3-5". 4" would make it very close to the 2nd All Time snowiest DEC/JAN.

*** And that 17 day deal I stated awhile back for DSM--- Dec 12 - Dec 29th, Jan 15th and FEB 1st  (accumulating Snows over 5" each time other that FEB 1st ) is only one day off. Something is brewing in the FEB 16th time frame.

Why don't you think DSM gets 6"? Thermals?

Grizzcoat Grand Master

Grizzcoat

Posted
Posted
Just now, james1976 said:

Why don't you think DSM gets 6"? Thermals?

Yes. You wanna be close to the mix line to score big. But this is too close. Initial qpf will be wasted on mix/sleet/FZRA. (likely)- and the ratios at under 10:1 as DMX mentioned do make sense. Just see it that way. Maybe the I-80 snow gods will win out with 10-12" on the ground but it doesn't precipitate from the ground up.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Grizzcoat Grand Master

Grizzcoat

Posted
Posted

This is NE /E IA into N.IL storm for max. Ring it up.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

GFSv16 not much change from east-central IA eastward.  It has been inconsistent with totals over central IA.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

Grizzcoat Grand Master

Grizzcoat

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

how do you think kalamazoo area will do this go round?

you guys/gals are at least 12 hours downstream from here in IA- so things can change from there on out. Advantages you have- should be no mixing issues= all snow.  Disadvantage- blocking and suppresion . ALL in all - as of this posting - 3-5". Maybe 4-6" if you get higher ratios which you may WITH the same precip. Tough to do.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

The Euro has shifted the rain/snow line south when the moisture surges into Iowa.  Or maybe it is just sped up a bit.  The 00z run, at 00z Sunday, had that bright pink heavy snow band over Iowa City.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

bud2380 Grand Master

bud2380

Posted
Posted

Looks like I'm going to ride the line here.  I think you need to be Hwy 30 on north.  Down here along 80, it will be tight.  Should get several inches though, so even 4-5" would be fine with me.  

Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

Yes, it all looks about the same.  The Euro continues to chip away at central Iowa's snowfall.

I would be happy with 7".  For this area, 6" is the line between moderate and big storm.

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season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, Madtown said:

UP of Michigan in many spots  is between 75" and 100+" off last years totals....Many places with 12" or less on the ground.

 

Pretty awful when these low-ball seasons hit.

Winter 2025-26 Snow Total = 68.1"   Largest Storm: 7.5" (11/29-30)    Snow/Ice Headlines: 20!!      Oct: 0.0 Nov:10.1 Dec: 17.1 Jan: 21.9  Feb: 7.1 Mar: 11.6 Apr: 0.3 (116% Normal Season)

Avg = 58.6"  (Harrison): 2024-25 = 55.3"   2023-24 = 53.1"             Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"          Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows) I have personally experienced: Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1995, Nov 1989, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973

Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

So what are we looking at for a start time? Saturday afternoon / early evening time period?

Yep.  Late afternoon here.

season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

OmahaSnowFan Grand Master

OmahaSnowFan

Posted
Posted

Most of the local mets have written this one off for eastern Nebraska going with an inch or less. However the NAM's and the short term Canadian give us several inches. Saw Jim posted he thinks Omaha is in line for 3.5-4" late Saturday afternoon and evening.

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bud2380 Grand Master

bud2380

Posted
Posted

Chicago finally looks like it's going to get blasted.  I know they've missed out on a lot of these storms or at least the bulk of them.   This one looks to have them in the crosshairs.  

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snowstorm83 Experienced

snowstorm83

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Most of the local mets have written this one off for eastern Nebraska going with an inch or less. However the NAM's and the short term Canadian give us several inches. Saw Jim posted he thinks Omaha is in line for 3.5-4" late Saturday afternoon and evening.

NAM is great for support when GFS is lost, but I feel like this could go either way. Euro is a little more promising than GFS at least. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

East Dubzz Community Regular

East Dubzz

Posted
Posted

I feel as good as one can at this point. Still plenty of time for massive changes, but at least I’m in a spot where there can be a decent shift and I’m still looking at a solid storm.

Niko Grand Master

Niko

Posted
  • Author
Posted
41 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...

1.png

2 more counties north and I am over a foot!

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  • Weenie 1

Snowfall for Winter 2025 -26                  

October 2025: 0.0"

November 2025: 6.7"                         

December 2025: 10.9"                       Coldest Temp: -15F & -10F for Detroit 

January 2026: 17.1"                           

February 2026: 4.9"                             Detroit Snowfall: 40.0"

March 2026: 0.4"                                  New Haven: 42" , ~  42"

April 2026: Trace

May: Trace                                             BN Snowfall this winter!

                                                                 Average is 44.1"

Bumblin Bman09 Contributor

Bumblin Bman09

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Chicago finally looks like it's going to get blasted.  I know they've missed out on a lot of these storms or at least the bulk of them.   This one looks to have them in the crosshairs.  

Chicago has missed out a bit and the past few runs look great for them.  Living near the WI border I wouldnt mind a little bit of a northward shift.  It looks to me theres been a northward jog the past few runs

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