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Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1


Niko

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7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm a bit concerned about the CR/IC area, but not because of the GFS.

Yeah, even the Euro has come further north with the warm air.  Still just far enough south to be ok, but another 30 miles and it starts to be trouble.  It's gonna be a close call i think. 

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47 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

GRR:   Not one model I've seen has high snow impacts along I-96 in Michigan.  Am I missing something?  Is this going North and the models aren't showing it yet?



- Trend toward higher potential for impacts Sat Night - Sun

Models are coming into better agreement with the coverage and
location of the snow with the next storm system for Sat Night into
Sunday. Overall the latest guidance is favoring accumulating snow
across much of the central and southern parts of the CWA. Highest
amounts are shown to be along and south of I-96. Impacts are
looking increasingly likely...with several inches of snow now
possible. This system could continue to trend upward from an
impact perspective with time as models are now starting to show
better FGEN and some Gulf moisture getting drawn into it. Based on
this we will increase POPs to likely or higher for these
locations and add a few inches of snow to the forecast.

My weather office explains a similar situation w a good chance of accumulating snowfall here in SEMI as well. Expect models to react much different tomorrow as that energy goes onshore.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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East Coast will get hit hard w hvy snowfall next week. Philly-Bos w over a foot. My residents in NYC are already preparing. Looks like a secondary will form over the Delmarva Peninsula and explode taking the classic track NE of the big cities.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, whatitdo said:

I just want a snowfall greater than 3 inches. Is that too much to ask? I haven't had a day with more than 2 inches of 24 hr snowfall yet

Need a small bump north on models. Then another "Now cast" bump via WAA doing it's thing. Best shot at a 98-99 analog of one biggie in the sea of mild nothing-burgers

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

Uncle Ukie coming over. Staying for awhile. (staying the same) sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Yeah I think that might be close to the actual solution. DSM gonna be pushing 50" for the season by this weekend lol.

GFS<NAM<UK/EURO

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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^ I highly doubt DSM records 6"+ from this. More like 3-5". 4" would make it very close to the 2nd All Time snowiest DEC/JAN.

*** And that 17 day deal I stated awhile back for DSM--- Dec 12 - Dec 29th, Jan 15th and FEB 1st  (accumulating Snows over 5" each time other that FEB 1st ) is only one day off. Something is brewing in the FEB 16th time frame. As the recent 1' showed, it doesn't matter inbewteen in an active pattern - but I would bet a significant amount of jing on accumulating snow in C.IA around Feb 16th. The cold air will be there.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

^ I highly doubt DSM records 6"+ from this. More like 3-5". 4" would make it very close to the 2nd All Time snowiest DEC/JAN.

*** And that 17 day deal I stated awhile back for DSM--- Dec 12 - Dec 29th, Jan 15th and FEB 1st  (accumulating Snows over 5" each time other that FEB 1st ) is only one day off. Something is brewing in the FEB 16th time frame.

Why don't you think DSM gets 6"? Thermals?

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Just now, james1976 said:

Why don't you think DSM gets 6"? Thermals?

Yes. You wanna be close to the mix line to score big. But this is too close. Initial qpf will be wasted on mix/sleet/FZRA. (likely)- and the ratios at under 10:1 as DMX mentioned do make sense. Just see it that way. Maybe the I-80 snow gods will win out with 10-12" on the ground but it doesn't precipitate from the ground up.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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GFSv16 not much change from east-central IA eastward.  It has been inconsistent with totals over central IA.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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8 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

how do you think kalamazoo area will do this go round?

you guys/gals are at least 12 hours downstream from here in IA- so things can change from there on out. Advantages you have- should be no mixing issues= all snow.  Disadvantage- blocking and suppresion . ALL in all - as of this posting - 3-5". Maybe 4-6" if you get higher ratios which you may WITH the same precip. Tough to do.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The Euro has shifted the rain/snow line south when the moisture surges into Iowa.  Or maybe it is just sped up a bit.  The 00z run, at 00z Sunday, had that bright pink heavy snow band over Iowa City.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yes, it all looks about the same.  The Euro continues to chip away at central Iowa's snowfall.

I would be happy with 7".  For this area, 6" is the line between moderate and big storm.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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22 hours ago, Madtown said:

UP of Michigan in many spots  is between 75" and 100+" off last years totals....Many places with 12" or less on the ground.

 

Pretty awful when these low-ball seasons hit.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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13 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

So what are we looking at for a start time? Saturday afternoon / early evening time period?

Yep.  Late afternoon here.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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11 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Most of the local mets have written this one off for eastern Nebraska going with an inch or less. However the NAM's and the short term Canadian give us several inches. Saw Jim posted he thinks Omaha is in line for 3.5-4" late Saturday afternoon and evening.

NAM is great for support when GFS is lost, but I feel like this could go either way. Euro is a little more promising than GFS at least. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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41 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...

1.png

2 more counties north and I am over a foot!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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35 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Chicago finally looks like it's going to get blasted.  I know they've missed out on a lot of these storms or at least the bulk of them.   This one looks to have them in the crosshairs.  

Chicago has missed out a bit and the past few runs look great for them.  Living near the WI border I wouldnt mind a little bit of a northward shift.  It looks to me theres been a northward jog the past few runs

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