Hawkeye 4420 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Models all have some major action mid next week, but what form it all takes is a mystery. The GFS is trending toward a storm with at least some initial WAA snow out in front. The GFSv16 has more than that. 4 Quote season snowfall: 51.8" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4420 Posted January 27 Author Report Share Posted January 27 Euro still showing a cutter. 1 Quote season snowfall: 51.8" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
BMT 349 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 giddy up Quote Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4012 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Euro dream run. Pure fantasy, but fun to look at. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Long way out for this, but there are a couple of teleconnections that point towards more of a wintry scenario and a further south movement projection. 1 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 February is usually a snowy month here in SEMI, so lets get some big ones going! 2 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4529 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 12Z Euro. My gosh. Dream track for Central Nebraska. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4529 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 I'll be interested to hear Jim Flowers thoughts later. He is planning on making a video about this storm. Long ways to go. I realize it might not happen, but the trends from the models show storminess. That is really all you can hope for at this stage of the game. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4318 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12Z Euro. My gosh. Dream track for Central Nebraska. The Euro Mean is coming in hot on this one. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4318 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 12z GFS mean in decent agreement with the Euro at this range. 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Madtown 1058 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 UP of Michigan in many spots is between 75" and 100+" off last years totals....Many places with 12" or less on the ground. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
snowstorm83 1906 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 46 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: I'll be interested to hear Jim Flowers thoughts later. He is planning on making a video about this storm. Long ways to go. I realize it might not happen, but the trends from the models show storminess. That is really all you can hope for at this stage of the game. It looks like a classic Holdrege special so far imo. Southeast Neb could get in on some action, but we're sitting about where KC was at this range with the last time. Didn't work out well for them lol 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" (so far) Average: 25.9" Link to post Share on other sites
hlcater 1321 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Yea this looks like a very hard cutter. Only way it wont be is if the surface low weakens significantly, or the block over hudson bay isnt so quick to translate east. Quote 2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 51.6" (Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”) (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7") Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 876 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Awful donut hole for SMI for the next 2 storms. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4529 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 14 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: It looks like a classic Holdrege special so far imo. Southeast Neb could get in on some action, but we're sitting about where KC was at this range with the last time. Didn't work out well for them lol I don't think I've ever heard "Holdrege special" used before. Nice. I've learned you never assume anything in Nebraska storm wise. We've been burned too many times. Maybe this year our luck has changed. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4529 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Jim Flowers video. BLIZZARD word used. https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersForecaster/videos/5200750276632604 2 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FAR_Weather 5174 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 I would rather be boiling tarred and feathered than miss another storm to the east. Quote >1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.9" Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15) First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT Link to post Share on other sites
mlgamer 494 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 18z GFS for Feb 5 lines up pretty well with Dec 24 which is 43 days which seems to fit the LRC. The Dec system missed me to the north and I would expect that to happen again with the Feb 5 system if it indeed matches the LRC. I'm guessing central NE and north-eastward would be in the sweet spot...and if a secondary wave forms and affects farther east areas. Bottom line...I may be a spectator again on this one...we'll see. 1 Quote 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total 12.4") 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2") 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb(-13.4 as of 2/24) Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4420 Posted January 28 Author Report Share Posted January 28 00z Euro holding onto the strong cutter Quote season snowfall: 51.8" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4420 Posted January 28 Author Report Share Posted January 28 It's way out there, but the Euro looks pretty interesting again after day 10. The western trough reloads again, the gulf opens up, and this time arctic air is pressing down across the northern US. 3 Quote season snowfall: 51.8" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
clintbeed1993 540 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, Hawkeye said: 00z Euro holding onto the strong cutter Looking like this is turning into a Dakota's special. Great... Still time to change but those trends seem solid 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4529 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 NWS morning disco: no we weren’t given a lecture this morning so that’s nice. The next storm system to watch will approach beginning Tuesday into Wednesday and impact the area Wednesday night into Thursday. A strong disturbance will track across the western CONUS and approach the Plains Wednesday. There are still discrepancies among the guidance on timing and location specifically...but this storm has the potential to impact the area bringing snow and strong winds. The track of the surface low will determine our precipitation potential...but the wind looks to be a strong bet on the back side of the low. Definitely stay tuned to the forecast as this time period nears over the next week to see how models evolve with timing and location and potential impacts. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4529 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 Jim Flowers latest video breaking down the storm for next week. Here blizzard blizzard. https://fb.watch/3ilMBO0EAE/ 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FAR_Weather 5174 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 3 hours ago, clintbeed1993 said: Looking like this is turning into a Dakota's special. Great... Still time to change but those trends seem solid Plz let us get something 1 Quote >1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.9" Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15) First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT Link to post Share on other sites
FAR_Weather 5174 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 Not to worry, though. A week is plenty of time for this thing to shift East and clobber the Twin Cities again for the 83rd time this year. Quote >1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.9" Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15) First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3692 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 As mentioned by Hawkeye- the extended is active also. Euro Control out to 360HR= 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4529 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 Here is the full 0z Euro run using Kuchera (I upgraded on Pivotal Weather for more maps). 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4529 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 Here is the 0z Euro full run 10:1 ratio 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4420 Posted January 28 Author Report Share Posted January 28 This morning's GFS hasn't changed much next week. I don't see this one coming farther east and south to give my area snow. That's ok. We've done well recently. I just hope any real warmth stays south so our snow pack doesn't get nuked. A short period in the 30s to near 40 would be fine. 1 Quote season snowfall: 51.8" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
snowstorm83 1906 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: This morning's GFS hasn't changed much next week. I don't see this one coming farther east and south to give my area snow. That's ok. We've done well recently. I just hope any real warmth stays south so our snow pack doesn't get nuked. A short period in the 30s to near 40 would be fine. I feel the same way I just don't want rain to kill the snowpack in a matter of hours so plz just dry slot me 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" (so far) Average: 25.9" Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16608 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 37 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: This morning's GFS hasn't changed much next week. I don't see this one coming farther east and south to give my area snow. That's ok. We've done well recently. I just hope any real warmth stays south so our snow pack doesn't get nuked. A short period in the 30s to near 40 would be fine. That's exactly my thoughts as well...this has a NW cutter written all over it...hopefully the warm surge is negated and we only have to deal with 30's and some brief rains. After this weekend, a lot of us should have a deep snow pack and I'd imagine that would help with temps or even storm track. Following this system, the entire pattern is looking like eye candy. I'm really excited for what this month will bring. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tony 893 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 If the low ejects out a little farther south of the 4 corners region or comes out a little flatter then there is the possibility this wont cut as much so we are all still in the game. At the very least the onset of precip could be a good thumping of snow if all things come together. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4529 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 15 minutes ago, Tom said: That's exactly my thoughts as well...this has a NW cutter written all over it...hopefully the warm surge is negated and we only have to deal with 30's and some brief rains. After this weekend, a lot of us should have a deep snow pack and I'd imagine that would help with temps or even storm track. Following this system, the entire pattern is looking like eye candy. I'm really excited for what this month will bring. Looks good for my area as of now, but am always concerned the low cuts northwest of me and turns into a northwest - north central Nebraska, South Dakota special. GFS wasn't too bad at 12Z, has come south quite a bit. Canadian was sheered last night. Euro has been steady, but still 6-7 days away much can change. This last storm, I wasn't in the ball game 5 days out, and look what happened. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16608 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 30 minutes ago, Tony said: If the low ejects out a little farther south of the 4 corners region or comes out a little flatter then there is the possibility this wont cut as much so we are all still in the game. At the very least the onset of precip could be a good thumping of snow if all things come together. That’s a possibility but I’m not banking on it. I’d almost prefer a NW cutter to fill in the snow holes to the NW of us. Besides this storm, I have a few on my calendar for the 1st half of Feb. This month has eyes for the MW/GL’s/OHV region. It’s going to be a complete pattern flip from what I’m expecting. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tony 893 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 15 minutes ago, Tom said: That’s a possibility but I’m not banking on it. I’d almost prefer a NW cutter to fill in the snow holes to the NW of us. Besides this storm, I have a few on my calendar for the 1st half of Feb. This month has eyes for the MW/GL’s/OHV region. It’s going to be a complete pattern flip from what I’m expecting. 12z Para does give us a front end thump Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4420 Posted January 28 Author Report Share Posted January 28 No change from the Euro, has a strong nw cutter. From eastern Iowa into Illinois, the temp rises into the low 40s with 1+" of rain. That would take a toll on the snow pack. Quote season snowfall: 51.8" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4012 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 12z Euro with a 974 in SE MN. That's another fun run. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FAR_Weather 5174 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 7 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said: 12z Euro with a 974 in SE MN. That's another fun run. Starting to have a 2018 and Norfolk level of hatred for the Twin Cities lol 1 3 Quote >1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.9" Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15) First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4420 Posted January 28 Author Report Share Posted January 28 At the end of the Euro run. Somebody should get something good beyond this. 1 Quote season snowfall: 51.8" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3692 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 8 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Starting to have a 2018 and Norfolk level of hatred for the Twin Cities lol Far_Weather- Your due. This is likely a system for you. Before the Arctic Hounds come and we goto a typical mid-winter pattern,(clippers) albeit 2-3 weeks late. Everything is late this winter. Expect this system to continue to shift NW. I base this on experience and just olde fashioned weather guts. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3692 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 I was just gonna post on what Hawkeye did. If ND area etc.. does well on the 4-5th system-- this will be a doozie somewhere SE Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
snowstorm83 1906 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 Uh oh 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" (so far) Average: 25.9" Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4012 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 33 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Starting to have a 2018 and Norfolk level of hatred for the Twin Cities lol Am I allowed to like this post? lol! Just kidding, of course. This has that classic hard cutter look to it. I think one of us will do well with this, maybe both. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4529 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 12Z Euro shows what would be a blizzard if it verifies. Winds would easily be 40-50 mph, not counting gusts. Jim Flowers mentions 60-70 knots I believe. No matter if I would get 3" to 12" that would cause massive problems. My biggest fear is this pulls further NW and I get dry slotted. So far things are looking good for 6 days out. I just like that there is something to track again. It then shows another snow producer on its heels with very cold temps. @Tomwinter has arrived with a vengeance. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4529 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 12Z Euro Kuchera full run. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4529 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 12Z Euro Kuchera full run Central Plains. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FAR_Weather 5174 Posted January 28 Report Share Posted January 28 58 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: At the end of the Euro run. Somebody should get something good beyond this. Might be KC's turn to get in on the action. Quote >1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.9" Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15) First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT Link to post Share on other sites
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