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February 2021 Observations and Discussion


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Models all have some major action mid next week, but what form it all takes is a mystery.

The GFS is trending toward a storm with at least some initial WAA snow out in front.  The GFSv16 has more than that.

prateptype_cat.conus.png

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season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just a reminder of The Weather Channels FEB temp forecast

Once I saw the end was near, it was time for me to make my trip out to AZ.  I wasn’t lying when I saw a potential pattern that could conceivably become historic and it did.  I was open about it and ad

Is the best yet to come???  This may be a rather long post regarding the Long Range pattern bc there is a lot of data that I've filtered through that support the long standing idea (admittedly later t

Posted Images

Euro still showing a cutter.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Long way out for this, but there are a couple of teleconnections that point towards more of a wintry scenario and a further south movement projection.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I'll be interested to hear Jim Flowers thoughts later.  He is planning on making a video about this storm.  Long ways to go.  I realize it might not happen, but the trends from the models show storminess.  That is really all you can hope for at this stage of the game.

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46 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I'll be interested to hear Jim Flowers thoughts later.  He is planning on making a video about this storm.  Long ways to go.  I realize it might not happen, but the trends from the models show storminess.  That is really all you can hope for at this stage of the game.

 

It looks like a classic Holdrege special so far imo. Southeast Neb could get in on some action, but we're sitting about where KC was at this range with the last time. Didn't work out well for them lol

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Yea this looks like a very hard cutter. Only way it wont be is if the surface low weakens significantly, or the block over hudson bay isnt so quick to translate east.

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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14 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

 

It looks like a classic Holdrege special so far imo. Southeast Neb could get in on some action, but we're sitting about where KC was at this range with the last time. Didn't work out well for them lol

I don't think I've ever heard "Holdrege special" used before.  Nice.  I've learned you never assume anything in Nebraska storm wise.  We've been burned too many times.  Maybe this year our luck has changed.

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I would rather be boiling tarred and feathered than miss another storm to the east.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.9"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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18z GFS for Feb 5 lines up pretty well with Dec 24 which is 43 days which seems to fit the LRC. The Dec system missed me to the north and I would expect that to happen again with the Feb 5 system if it indeed matches the LRC. I'm guessing central NE and north-eastward would be in the sweet spot...and if a secondary wave forms and affects farther east areas. Bottom line...I may be a spectator again on this one...we'll see.

lrc1.png

lrc2.gif

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total 12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2")
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb(-13.4 as of 2/24)
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00z Euro holding onto the strong cutter

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It's way out there, but the Euro looks pretty interesting again after day 10.  The western trough reloads again, the gulf opens up, and this time arctic air is pressing down across the northern US.

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season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NWS morning disco:  no we weren’t given a lecture this morning so that’s nice. 😀

The next storm system to watch will approach beginning Tuesday into Wednesday and impact the area Wednesday night into Thursday. A strong disturbance will track across the western CONUS and approach the Plains Wednesday. There are still discrepancies among the guidance on timing and location specifically...but this storm has the potential to impact the area bringing snow and strong winds. The track of the surface low will determine our precipitation potential...but the wind looks to be a strong bet on the back side of the low. Definitely stay tuned to the forecast as this time period nears over the next week to see how models evolve with timing and location and potential impacts.

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3 hours ago, clintbeed1993 said:

 

Looking like this is turning into a Dakota's special. Great...

Still time to change but those trends seem solid

Plz let us get something

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.9"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Not to worry, though. A week is plenty of time for this thing to shift East and clobber the Twin Cities again for the 83rd time this year.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.9"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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As mentioned by Hawkeye- the extended is active also. Euro Control out to 360HR= image.thumb.png.76af2b7576da4df433681ecc6cc0f92a.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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This morning's GFS hasn't changed much next week.  I don't see this one coming farther east and south to give my area snow.  That's ok.  We've done well recently.  I just hope any real warmth stays south so our snow pack doesn't get nuked.  A short period in the 30s to near 40 would be fine.

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season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This morning's GFS hasn't changed much next week.  I don't see this one coming farther east and south to give my area snow.  That's ok.  We've done well recently.  I just hope any real warmth stays south so our snow pack doesn't get nuked.  A short period in the 30s to near 40 would be fine.

I feel the same way I just don't want rain to kill the snowpack in a matter of hours 😬 so plz just dry slot me

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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37 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This morning's GFS hasn't changed much next week.  I don't see this one coming farther east and south to give my area snow.  That's ok.  We've done well recently.  I just hope any real warmth stays south so our snow pack doesn't get nuked.  A short period in the 30s to near 40 would be fine.

That's exactly my thoughts as well...this has a NW cutter written all over it...hopefully the warm surge is negated and we only have to deal with 30's and some brief rains.  After this weekend, a lot of us should have a deep snow pack and I'd imagine that would help with temps or even storm track.  Following this system, the entire pattern is looking like eye candy.  I'm really excited for what this month will bring.

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If the low ejects out a little farther south of the 4 corners region or comes out a little flatter then there is the possibility this wont cut as much so we are all still in the game. At the very least the onset of precip could be a good thumping of snow if all things come together.

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15 minutes ago, Tom said:

That's exactly my thoughts as well...this has a NW cutter written all over it...hopefully the warm surge is negated and we only have to deal with 30's and some brief rains.  After this weekend, a lot of us should have a deep snow pack and I'd imagine that would help with temps or even storm track.  Following this system, the entire pattern is looking like eye candy.  I'm really excited for what this month will bring.

Looks good for my area as of now, but am always concerned the low cuts northwest of me and turns into a northwest - north central Nebraska, South Dakota special.  GFS wasn't too bad at 12Z, has come south quite a bit.  Canadian was sheered last night.  Euro has been steady, but still 6-7 days away much can change.  This last storm, I wasn't in the ball game 5 days out, and look what happened.  

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30 minutes ago, Tony said:

If the low ejects out a little farther south of the 4 corners region or comes out a little flatter then there is the possibility this wont cut as much so we are all still in the game. At the very least the onset of precip could be a good thumping of snow if all things come together.

That’s a possibility but I’m not banking on it.  I’d almost prefer a NW cutter to fill in the snow holes to the NW of us.  Besides this storm, I have a few on my calendar for the 1st half of Feb.  This month has eyes for the MW/GL’s/OHV region.  It’s going to be a complete pattern flip from what I’m expecting.

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15 minutes ago, Tom said:

That’s a possibility but I’m not banking on it.  I’d almost prefer a NW cutter to fill in the snow holes to the NW of us.  Besides this storm, I have a few on my calendar for the 1st half of Feb.  This month has eyes for the MW/GL’s/OHV region.  It’s going to be a complete pattern flip from what I’m expecting.

12z Para does give us a front end thump 

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No change from the Euro, has a strong nw cutter.  From eastern Iowa into Illinois, the temp rises into the low 40s with 1+" of rain.  That would take a toll on the snow pack.

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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7 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

12z Euro with a 974 in SE MN. That's another fun run.  

Starting to have a 2018 and Norfolk level of hatred for the Twin Cities lol

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.9"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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At the end of the Euro run.  Somebody should get something good beyond this.

500hv.conus.png

850th.conus.png

sfct.conus.png

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season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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8 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Starting to have a 2018 and Norfolk level of hatred for the Twin Cities lol

Far_Weather-

Your due. This is likely a system for you. Before the Arctic Hounds come and we goto a typical mid-winter pattern,(clippers) albeit 2-3 weeks late. Everything is late this winter. Expect this system to continue to shift NW. I base this on experience and just olde fashioned weather guts.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I was just gonna post on what Hawkeye did. If ND area etc.. does well on the 4-5th system-- this will be a doozie somewhere SE

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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33 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Starting to have a 2018 and Norfolk level of hatred for the Twin Cities lol

Am I allowed to like this post? lol!  Just kidding, of course.  This has that classic hard cutter look to it. I think one of us will do well with this, maybe both. 

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12Z Euro shows what would be a blizzard if it verifies.  Winds would easily be 40-50 mph, not counting gusts.  Jim Flowers mentions 60-70 knots I believe.  No matter if I would get 3" to 12" that would cause massive problems.  My biggest fear is this pulls further NW and I get dry slotted.  So far things are looking good for 6 days out.  I just like that there is something to track again.  It then shows another snow producer on its heels with very cold temps.  @Tomwinter has arrived with a vengeance.  

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58 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

At the end of the Euro run.  Somebody should get something good beyond this.

500hv.conus.png

850th.conus.png

sfct.conus.png

Might be KC's turn to get in on the action.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.9"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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