February 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

Models all have some major action mid next week, but what form it all takes is a mystery.

The GFS is trending toward a storm with at least some initial WAA snow out in front.  The GFSv16 has more than that.

[Hawkeye]

Euro still showing a cutter.

[BMT]

giddy up

[St Paul Storm]

Euro dream run. Pure fantasy, but fun to look at. 

[Niko]

Long way out for this, but there are a couple of teleconnections that point towards more of a wintry scenario and a further south movement projection.

[Niko]

February is usually a snowy month here in SEMI, so lets get some big ones going!

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro.  My gosh.  Dream track for Central Nebraska.

[CentralNebWeather]

I'll be interested to hear Jim Flowers thoughts later.  He is planning on making a video about this storm.  Long ways to go.  I realize it might not happen, but the trends from the models show storminess.  That is really all you can hope for at this stage of the game.

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z Euro.  My gosh.  Dream track for Central Nebraska.

The Euro Mean is coming in hot on this one.

[Clinton]

12z GFS mean in decent agreement with the Euro at this range.

[Madtown]

UP of Michigan in many spots  is between 75" and 100+" off last years totals....Many places with 12" or less on the ground.

 

[snowstorm83]

46 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I'll be interested to hear Jim Flowers thoughts later.  He is planning on making a video about this storm.  Long ways to go.  I realize it might not happen, but the trends from the models show storminess.  That is really all you can hope for at this stage of the game.

 

It looks like a classic Holdrege special so far imo. Southeast Neb could get in on some action, but we're sitting about where KC was at this range with the last time. Didn't work out well for them lol

[hlcater]

Yea this looks like a very hard cutter. Only way it wont be is if the surface low weakens significantly, or the block over hudson bay isnt so quick to translate east.

[Stacsh]

Awful donut hole for SMI for the next 2 storms.  

[CentralNebWeather]

14 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

 

It looks like a classic Holdrege special so far imo. Southeast Neb could get in on some action, but we're sitting about where KC was at this range with the last time. Didn't work out well for them lol

I don't think I've ever heard "Holdrege special" used before.  Nice.  I've learned you never assume anything in Nebraska storm wise.  We've been burned too many times.  Maybe this year our luck has changed.

[CentralNebWeather]

Jim Flowers video.  BLIZZARD word used.  https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersForecaster/videos/5200750276632604

[Minny_Weather]

I would rather be boiling tarred and feathered than miss another storm to the east.

[mlgamer]

18z GFS for Feb 5 lines up pretty well with Dec 24 which is 43 days which seems to fit the LRC. The Dec system missed me to the north and I would expect that to happen again with the Feb 5 system if it indeed matches the LRC. I'm guessing central NE and north-eastward would be in the sweet spot...and if a secondary wave forms and affects farther east areas. Bottom line...I may be a spectator again on this one...we'll see.

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro holding onto the strong cutter

[Hawkeye]

It's way out there, but the Euro looks pretty interesting again after day 10.  The western trough reloads again, the gulf opens up, and this time arctic air is pressing down across the northern US.

[clintbeed1993]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

00z Euro holding onto the strong cutter

 

Looking like this is turning into a Dakota's special. Great...

Still time to change but those trends seem solid

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS morning disco:  no we weren’t given a lecture this morning so that’s nice. 

The next storm system to watch will approach beginning Tuesday into Wednesday and impact the area Wednesday night into Thursday. A strong disturbance will track across the western CONUS and approach the Plains Wednesday. There are still discrepancies among the guidance on timing and location specifically...but this storm has the potential to impact the area bringing snow and strong winds. The track of the surface low will determine our precipitation potential...but the wind looks to be a strong bet on the back side of the low. Definitely stay tuned to the forecast as this time period nears over the next week to see how models evolve with timing and location and potential impacts.

[CentralNebWeather]

Jim Flowers latest video breaking down the storm for next week. Here blizzard blizzard. https://fb.watch/3ilMBO0EAE/

[GDR]

[GDR]

[GDR]

[Minny_Weather]

3 hours ago, clintbeed1993 said:

 

Looking like this is turning into a Dakota's special. Great...

Still time to change but those trends seem solid

Plz let us get something

[Minny_Weather]

Not to worry, though. A week is plenty of time for this thing to shift East and clobber the Twin Cities again for the 83rd time this year.

[Grizzcoat]

As mentioned by Hawkeye- the extended is active also. Euro Control out to 360HR=

[CentralNebWeather]

Here is the full 0z Euro run using Kuchera (I upgraded on Pivotal Weather for more maps).  

[CentralNebWeather]

Here is the 0z Euro full run 10:1 ratio  

[Hawkeye]

This morning's GFS hasn't changed much next week.  I don't see this one coming farther east and south to give my area snow.  That's ok.  We've done well recently.  I just hope any real warmth stays south so our snow pack doesn't get nuked.  A short period in the 30s to near 40 would be fine.

[snowstorm83]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This morning's GFS hasn't changed much next week.  I don't see this one coming farther east and south to give my area snow.  That's ok.  We've done well recently.  I just hope any real warmth stays south so our snow pack doesn't get nuked.  A short period in the 30s to near 40 would be fine.

I feel the same way I just don't want rain to kill the snowpack in a matter of hours  so plz just dry slot me

[Tom]

37 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This morning's GFS hasn't changed much next week.  I don't see this one coming farther east and south to give my area snow.  That's ok.  We've done well recently.  I just hope any real warmth stays south so our snow pack doesn't get nuked.  A short period in the 30s to near 40 would be fine.

That's exactly my thoughts as well...this has a NW cutter written all over it...hopefully the warm surge is negated and we only have to deal with 30's and some brief rains.  After this weekend, a lot of us should have a deep snow pack and I'd imagine that would help with temps or even storm track.  Following this system, the entire pattern is looking like eye candy.  I'm really excited for what this month will bring.

[Tony]

If the low ejects out a little farther south of the 4 corners region or comes out a little flatter then there is the possibility this wont cut as much so we are all still in the game. At the very least the onset of precip could be a good thumping of snow if all things come together.

[CentralNebWeather]

15 minutes ago, Tom said:

That's exactly my thoughts as well...this has a NW cutter written all over it...hopefully the warm surge is negated and we only have to deal with 30's and some brief rains.  After this weekend, a lot of us should have a deep snow pack and I'd imagine that would help with temps or even storm track.  Following this system, the entire pattern is looking like eye candy.  I'm really excited for what this month will bring.

Looks good for my area as of now, but am always concerned the low cuts northwest of me and turns into a northwest - north central Nebraska, South Dakota special.  GFS wasn't too bad at 12Z, has come south quite a bit.  Canadian was sheered last night.  Euro has been steady, but still 6-7 days away much can change.  This last storm, I wasn't in the ball game 5 days out, and look what happened.  

[Tom]

30 minutes ago, Tony said:

If the low ejects out a little farther south of the 4 corners region or comes out a little flatter then there is the possibility this wont cut as much so we are all still in the game. At the very least the onset of precip could be a good thumping of snow if all things come together.

That’s a possibility but I’m not banking on it.  I’d almost prefer a NW cutter to fill in the snow holes to the NW of us.  Besides this storm, I have a few on my calendar for the 1st half of Feb.  This month has eyes for the MW/GL’s/OHV region.  It’s going to be a complete pattern flip from what I’m expecting.

[Tony]

15 minutes ago, Tom said:

That’s a possibility but I’m not banking on it.  I’d almost prefer a NW cutter to fill in the snow holes to the NW of us.  Besides this storm, I have a few on my calendar for the 1st half of Feb.  This month has eyes for the MW/GL’s/OHV region.  It’s going to be a complete pattern flip from what I’m expecting.

12z Para does give us a front end thump 

[Hawkeye]

No change from the Euro, has a strong nw cutter.  From eastern Iowa into Illinois, the temp rises into the low 40s with 1+" of rain.  That would take a toll on the snow pack.

[St Paul Storm]

12z Euro with a 974 in SE MN. That's another fun run.