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February 2021 Observations and Discussion


Hawkeye

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8 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Starting to have a 2018 and Norfolk level of hatred for the Twin Cities lol

Far_Weather-

Your due. This is likely a system for you. Before the Arctic Hounds come and we goto a typical mid-winter pattern,(clippers) albeit 2-3 weeks late. Everything is late this winter. Expect this system to continue to shift NW. I base this on experience and just olde fashioned weather guts.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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12Z Euro shows what would be a blizzard if it verifies.  Winds would easily be 40-50 mph, not counting gusts.  Jim Flowers mentions 60-70 knots I believe.  No matter if I would get 3" to 12" that would cause massive problems.  My biggest fear is this pulls further NW and I get dry slotted.  So far things are looking good for 6 days out.  I just like that there is something to track again.  It then shows another snow producer on its heels with very cold temps.  @Tomwinter has arrived with a vengeance.  

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Expect this system to keep cutting North and especially W. Why? I could go into all that LRC stuff and all, but will not as I don't really believe it.  It's gut and that's all. The blocking simply can't hang on this strong for duration and WAA is going to win WAY out - esp areas E. 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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44 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Uh oh 😬

1612461600-NPnWKdtN9sg.png

2/23/2017 was one of the more memorable weather days during my time in Lincoln. Up there with the February 2019 blizzard and the May 2019 tornado. The setup looked exactly like this. Had a severe t-storm in Lincoln where the main ptype was sleet.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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48 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Expect this system to keep cutting North and especially W. Why? I could go into all that LRC stuff and all, but will not as I don't really believe it.  It's gut and that's all. The blocking simply can't hang on this strong for duration and WAA is going to win WAY out - esp areas E. 

I call it will be an IA magnet/cutter...might track right over your place or just east in E IA.  

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This system bears watching for many surprises for some peeps, whether good or bad. Be prepared for the unexpected. Also, snowcover ground and cold air around/in place, in many areas, should make this storm track interesting.........🤔

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

12 GFS looking bizarre for Thursday

It is always bizarre lately.  I've lost all faith in it, and really only rely on Euro and Canadian, and some of the shorter range models.  I think the upgraded GFS v16 is what to look at.  I really just think they should scrap the GFS.  

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10 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

It is always bizarre lately.  I've lost all faith in it, and really only rely on Euro and Canadian, and some of the shorter range models.  I think the upgraded GFS v16 is what to look at.  I really just think they should scrap the GFS.  

GFS is supposed to go bye bye sometime in February

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19 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

It is always bizarre lately.  I've lost all faith in it, and really only rely on Euro and Canadian, and some of the shorter range models.  I think the upgraded GFS v16 is what to look at.  I really just think they should scrap the GFS.  

Bizarre? Have you seen the 12z Canadian?  Now that is a different solution.  Splits next weeks storm west of the rockies.  Turns one part into a clipper the other down to Baja as a cutoff.  

Who knows, maybe the Euro will match this?

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