Minny_Weather Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said: 12z Euro with a 974 in SE MN. That's another fun run. Starting to have a 2018 and Norfolk level of hatred for the Twin Cities lol 1 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 At the end of the Euro run. Somebody should get something good beyond this. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Starting to have a 2018 and Norfolk level of hatred for the Twin Cities lol Far_Weather- Your due. This is likely a system for you. Before the Arctic Hounds come and we goto a typical mid-winter pattern,(clippers) albeit 2-3 weeks late. Everything is late this winter. Expect this system to continue to shift NW. I base this on experience and just olde fashioned weather guts. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 I was just gonna post on what Hawkeye did. If ND area etc.. does well on the 4-5th system-- this will be a doozie somewhere SE Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Uh oh 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 33 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Starting to have a 2018 and Norfolk level of hatred for the Twin Cities lol Am I allowed to like this post? lol! Just kidding, of course. This has that classic hard cutter look to it. I think one of us will do well with this, maybe both. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 12Z Euro shows what would be a blizzard if it verifies. Winds would easily be 40-50 mph, not counting gusts. Jim Flowers mentions 60-70 knots I believe. No matter if I would get 3" to 12" that would cause massive problems. My biggest fear is this pulls further NW and I get dry slotted. So far things are looking good for 6 days out. I just like that there is something to track again. It then shows another snow producer on its heels with very cold temps. @Tomwinter has arrived with a vengeance. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 12Z Euro Kuchera full run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 12Z Euro Kuchera full run Central Plains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 58 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: At the end of the Euro run. Somebody should get something good beyond this. Might be KC's turn to get in on the action. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Expect this system to keep cutting North and especially W. Why? I could go into all that LRC stuff and all, but will not as I don't really believe it. It's gut and that's all. The blocking simply can't hang on this strong for duration and WAA is going to win WAY out - esp areas E. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 44 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Uh oh 2/23/2017 was one of the more memorable weather days during my time in Lincoln. Up there with the February 2019 blizzard and the May 2019 tornado. The setup looked exactly like this. Had a severe t-storm in Lincoln where the main ptype was sleet. 5 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 @gabel23Here is what I got from the meteocentre website. 12Z CMC hours 156 and 168. Best I could do. Others sites won't load Canadian past 24 hours. Sad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 48 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Expect this system to keep cutting North and especially W. Why? I could go into all that LRC stuff and all, but will not as I don't really believe it. It's gut and that's all. The blocking simply can't hang on this strong for duration and WAA is going to win WAY out - esp areas E. I call it will be an IA magnet/cutter...might track right over your place or just east in E IA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 NWS Goodland KS already putting out information about a possible storm next Wed./Thurs/Fri. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 New Jim Flowers video about the storm next week. https://fb.watch/3iXjCmqNia/ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 13 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: New Jim Flowers video about the storm next week. https://fb.watch/3iXjCmqNia/ Omg the song tho 1 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, snowstorm83 said: Omg the song tho To me he is a geek in a good way. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 18z GFS takes the low across N IL/S WI so does not cut too far NW on this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 This system bears watching for many surprises for some peeps, whether good or bad. Be prepared for the unexpected. Also, snowcover ground and cold air around/in place, in many areas, should make this storm track interesting......... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 This one could change my winter outlook 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just when you finally cave in and say, "Allright then! We can do spring. I'm okay with winter just ending in peace like the weakness that it's been for 6 years." NOPE!! Even winter trolls me. Now we're going to have January in February. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Tom Posted January 29, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Is the best yet to come??? This may be a rather long post regarding the Long Range pattern bc there is a lot of data that I've filtered through that support the long standing idea (admittedly later than expected) that winter would come back and have legs for the remainder of the season. What initially looked like a fantastic solution to the MMW Polar Vortex disruption in very late Dec/early Jan, Mother Nature said, "hold my beer"...I have something else planned. As rare of an event, or rather, a sequence of events, we are about to see a 2nd major disruption of the Polar Vortex to open up February. Even the top mets (@Judah Cohen) were thrown a curve ball and have yet to see such a pattern in the Stratosphere. While 2020 was an anomaly for many reasons, 2021 is starting off on the same foot. Over a week ago, the GEFS were sniffing out the 10mb well in advance and it perked my attn which now makes sense for the delayed "extreme" cold that i called for the 2nd half of Jan. With that being said, is this 2nd disruption the final nail in the coffin??? Will this produce a pattern ripe for extremes??? I believe so. Not just the cold, but a favorable active STJ and energized jet stream as we open up the last month of met Winter. The Jet stream usually reaches its peak intensity right around this time of year into the 1st half of Feb. It is my opinion, this year the jet stream is acting like an "energizer bunny" and I don't see it relaxing anytime soon...maybe towards mid-March when the jet slows down dramatically and we will have to deal with monster/slow moving winter storms (I expect the -NAO block to rock in March). What I'm seeing that is coming down the road for the majority of our Sub is a remarkable pattern, with remarkable model agreement. Over the past week, I've seen changes in the modeling that support the idea where the west-based Greenland Block grows stronger as we get closer in time. Keeping that in mind, along with the nature of how the sequence of events is transpiring in the Stratosphere, AND the continuation of a deep -AO pattern, AND the all-important -EPO, we are setting the stage for a full onslaught of Ol' Man Winter. In recent days, the models are now beginning to lock in on a reversal in what was a continuation of a +EPO. Instead of Pacific flow influencing the North American pattern, the Upper Air Flow will allow surges of Arctic air into the pattern. Not to mention, a favorable Phase 7 during La Nina's in February look good for our Sub... courtesy from @BamWx...notice the western NAMER ridge and SER.... Unlike recent February years, this year, the models have busted bad with the -NAO pattern in the seasonal outlooks and mid/long range. Knowingly, when the LRC was setting up way back in the Autumn months, there was a Long Term Long Wave Ridge that set up shop across eastern Canada and has made sense to me why the models have busted with this block. While we move deeper into the later part of Met Winter and Spring, I foresee some unusual high lat blocking in the Spring months. Not to get to far ahead of myself, there is a lot more winter for those who seek snow and cold. Let me dive in.... In remarkable agreement, yesterdays JMA weeklies along with the CFSv2 weeklies are in alignment that Feb should deliver the goods. Week 2...temp/precip pattern...very active and cold... The CFSv2 during this same period agrees...albeit a bit warmer across the eastern CONUS...on the other hand, the LR 35-day GEFS is in agreement with the JMA Week 3-4...temp/precip... CFSv2 during this same period... Yesterday's Euro Weeklies finally caught onto the Greenland Block and it's tendency to loose it in the LR came into fruition again on this run as well as loosing the -EPO pattern. As a result, in the near term of its LR model run, it has turned colder for the 1st half of February. I'm not even going to comment on the Day 20-45 because it has done terribly during this period. Instead, I will focus on the CFSv2 which has done a lot better IMHO and fits the overall theme. The last daily run of the CFSv2 for February is showing major blocking in the Arctic regions and the all mighty Greenland Block. Temp/Precip pattern... Are we on the verge of a something incredible??? I get fired up with excitement seeing the data that's being illustrated for this month. Who wouldn't as a Winter Wx enthusiast? I begin to wonder if this pattern will turn into a "Central CONUS Glacier"...nature certainly is showing that it is possible with a glacier that has already set up across IA/MN (30+ days of snow cover and counting), smack dab in the middle of the Midwest and I suspect it will grow and expand this month. Gosh, this was one of the longest LR posts I've done...I think I covered the main key points I've been thinking about for quite some time. Now, let's sit back and see what Ol' Man Winter has in store! 9 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 0z Euro Kuchera through 186 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 0z Euro 10:1 through 186 hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 0Z Canadian Kuchera full run. Whoa. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 0z Canadian 10:1 full run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Looks like we will get our first bout of REAL LES after the early FEB storm. Don't care if we get rain with the LP system here in Michigan. The backside is what intrigues me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 12Z NWS Blend of Models ratio. I just upgraded on Pivotal Weather and have never used this map before. I'll post it as others might have seen it before. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12Z NWS Blend of Models ratio. I just upgraded on Pivotal Weather and have never used this map before. I'll post it as others might have seen it before. Can you show to the Great lakes too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Might have some actual cold air slipping into non-fantasy range Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Madtown said: Can you show to the Great lakes too? Here you go. 12z NWS Blend ratio 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 GFS looking bizarre for Thursday Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: 12 GFS looking bizarre for Thursday It is always bizarre lately. I've lost all faith in it, and really only rely on Euro and Canadian, and some of the shorter range models. I think the upgraded GFS v16 is what to look at. I really just think they should scrap the GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: It is always bizarre lately. I've lost all faith in it, and really only rely on Euro and Canadian, and some of the shorter range models. I think the upgraded GFS v16 is what to look at. I really just think they should scrap the GFS. GFS is supposed to go bye bye sometime in February Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 19 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: It is always bizarre lately. I've lost all faith in it, and really only rely on Euro and Canadian, and some of the shorter range models. I think the upgraded GFS v16 is what to look at. I really just think they should scrap the GFS. Bizarre? Have you seen the 12z Canadian? Now that is a different solution. Splits next weeks storm west of the rockies. Turns one part into a clipper the other down to Baja as a cutoff. Who knows, maybe the Euro will match this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, Tony said: GFS is supposed to go bye bye sometime in February It can go bye bye in January in my opinion. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Now the GFS v16 is south across Kansas. Huge move south in 1 day. Model mayhem for awhile it looks like. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z GFS and ICON trending south with the storm Thursday. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 12Z Canadian must have drank some Labatts Beer. It looks nothing like the 0z or other models. Be interested to see the Euro in an hour. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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