snowstorm83 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z GFSv16 lol omg Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 12Z Canadian shows really nothing for the next Wednesday/Thursday storm, and instead puts a massive storm in the Central Plains next Saturday and Super Bowl Sunday. If nothing else, the next week or longer will have many curve balls thrown our way. I'll take that any day compared to nothing going on. Not all of us will be hit, but plenty to study and track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 25 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12Z Canadian shows really nothing for the next Wednesday/Thursday storm, and instead puts a massive storm in the Central Plains next Saturday and Super Bowl Sunday. If nothing else, the next week or longer will have many curve balls thrown our way. I'll take that any day compared to nothing going on. Not all of us will be hit, but plenty to study and track. The Canadian buries me in snow lol so...... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Here comes the Euro. I'll post maps later over my lunch period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z GEFS looks south and weaker but all over the place lol. 4 day mean bc they they don't have 48 hr 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z Euro is slower and a little south it appears. Tremendous track for my area with 50 mph winds, at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z Euro 10:1 ratio to hour 174. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z Euro Kuchera to hour 174. Oh my. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Thats a nasty OMA/LNK gradient there 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 February is looking very active and colder than normal. Fun times ahead. Also, the extended looks sweet and storm track looks great as well w a very busy STJ. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z Euro shows the big storm Thursday/Friday and nothing after that. 12z Canadian doesn't show this storm, but shows a big storm next Saturday/Sunday. Will be fun watching these 2 models the next 4-5 days to see if these differences get ironed out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 35 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12z Euro 10:1 ratio to hour 174. My area is right in the bullseye........what could go wrong?! LOL. My goodness, that snow with the winds would spell some fun trouble! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, gabel23 said: My area is right in the bullseye........what could go wrong?! LOL. My goodness, that snow with the winds would spell some fun trouble! I am thinking the same thing. Would sure like for the Canadian to even be close to the Euro. It is in another universe with its 12z run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 If the GFS long range was ever right temp wise, this would be the coldest winter on record. So overblown every run it's crazy. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Looks like we might have a battle of the models for a bit on the Feb 5/6 system. I wonder which one will prevail?.... 1 4 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 FGF isn't even thinking about amounts or placement right now. Smart move. Quote There continues to be good agreement within guidance of upper troughing working its way out of the West and into the Plains/Midwest around Wed-Fri timeframe. Current suite of guidance progs this troughing to become deepest over the Northern Plains around Wed-Thu timeframe, although there may still be some variability in timing. Still, this good agreement of a deepening trough into the area increases the chance for potentially impactful winter weather to the area. Details beyond this become less confident, although there are some clusters within ensemble guidance that brings QPF amounts exceeding 0.25 inches, a threshold that can be analogous to accumulating snowfall potential. Additionally, the majority of ensemble members strengthen a surface low under this trough moving into the Plains/Midwest around Thursday next week, thus introducing the potential for gusty winds. Depending on how much snow the region gets after next week`s warm up, gusty winds will only compound potential winter impacts as it combines with fresh snow. At this point, the forecast should be monitored for those with interests around the region next Wed-Fri, with possible lingering impacts mainly from increased chances in seasonably cold temperatures behind this system. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slowpoke Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 19 minutes ago, Stacsh said: If the GFS long range was ever right temp wise, this would be the coldest winter on record. So overblown every run it's crazy. Man I couldn’t agree more, just seems day after day week after week month after month we keep hearing about the cold that’s coming but unfortunately it never does. I know the guys saying it here are just saying what the models are telling them honestly and I don’t blame them but at some point you would think they would look at that same model that told them the cold was coming over and over the past few years that never really does and they would ignore it. Even if we get some cold to come down in the lower 48 next month it will be February already, them lights you see at the end of the tunnel is Spring and it’s coming fast! Don’t get me wrong I enjoy reading some of our long range forecasters occasionally that do post here even though they might only be hitting .300 if their lucky but at least their in the game and trying, better then my sorry a**, I wouldn’t have any idea how to read them models or make a long range forecast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Jim Flowers latest video about a possible blizzard next week Central to Northeast Nebraska. https://fb.watch/3kbLmBdMh-/ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 BLIZZARD!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 The op GFS has now changed dramatically, sweeping the northern stream through and leaving the southern wave behind to eventually pass much farther southeast. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 0z GFS and ICON advertising a major storm in Missouri on the 5th. Fingers crossed 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Clinton said: 0z GFS and ICON advertising a major storm in Missouri on the 5th. Fingers crossed The iconicICON 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 GFS is horrendous and botched this last storm badly. It's all over the place with this one too. I'd go with the EURO until it budges. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 CMC is a day later and hammers many of us with a blizzard. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 I could see the Canadian being a better solution than the GFS which is so inconsistent it’s embarrassing. If Euro stays consistent that’s what I’d side with. Still a long ways to go. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Clinton said: CMC is a day later and hammers many of us with a blizzard. Its coming south towards your area Clinton..... Btw: I trust CMC 10X more than GFS. "GFS" elect hopefully is a good one, but we will see how it does. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Niko said: Its coming south towards your area Clinton..... A thread has already been made for this storm. Just needs to be pinned 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 CMC be looking Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Gfs v16 looking good for here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 The Canadian shows 1-2 feet of snow over the next 10 days for a basically the entire sub forum. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 36 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Gfs v16 looking good for here I would love it if this played out lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Stormhunter87 said: I would love it if this played out lol Most of the sub would 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, jcwxguy said: Most of the sub would Just extend that southeast "tail" part and let's have a whole forum party! One time!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, bud2380 said: The Canadian shows 1-2 feet of snow over the next 10 days for basically the entire sub forum. Hahahahahaha this doesn't include me 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 I couldn't help but see the similarities to Feb 3rd-11th 2018 and what the models are showing during this same period. Only looking at this period and not afterwards bc we all know what happened when the epic torch killed our beautiful snow pack in a span of 2-3 days. Quote https://www.weather.gov/lot/2018feb311_snow#:~:text=Chicago%2C IL experienced an impressive,Chicago received 18.3" of snow. CFSv2... 00z GEFS... Isn't it finally nice to see the GEFS trend colder instead of warmer??? The tides have turned my friends. Giddy up for some true winter weather. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 The GFS ensembles just continue to pound on Iowa. One of the stronger storms of this years pattern is due in around Valentines Day. Already some ensemble agreement on that storm and Iowa could be the target again. Along ways to go and we have some nice storms between now and then but I don't see the snow stopping for my friends to the north. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 9 hours ago, Tony said: A thread has already been made for this storm. Just needs to be pinned Who cares! 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Niko said: Who cares! I guess you do since you've been posting there 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Tony said: I guess you do since you've been posting there Thats right..I'll post where I wish. Free country! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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