Jump to content

February 2021 Observations and Discussion


Hawkeye

Recommended Posts

12Z Canadian shows really nothing for the next Wednesday/Thursday storm, and instead puts a massive storm in the Central Plains next Saturday and Super Bowl Sunday.  If nothing else, the next week or longer will have many curve balls thrown our way.  I'll take that any day compared to nothing going on.  Not all of us will be hit, but plenty to study and track.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z Canadian shows really nothing for the next Wednesday/Thursday storm, and instead puts a massive storm in the Central Plains next Saturday and Super Bowl Sunday.  If nothing else, the next week or longer will have many curve balls thrown our way.  I'll take that any day compared to nothing going on.  Not all of us will be hit, but plenty to study and track.

The Canadian buries me in snow lol so......

  • Like 2
  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

February is looking very active and colder than normal. Fun times ahead. Also, the extended looks sweet and storm track looks great as well w a very busy STJ.

  • Like 3

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, gabel23 said:

My area is right in the bullseye........what could go wrong?! LOL. My goodness, that snow with the winds would spell some fun trouble! 

I am thinking the same thing.  Would sure like for the Canadian to even be close to the Euro.  It is in another universe with its 12z run

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FGF isn't even thinking about amounts or placement right now. Smart move.

Quote

There continues to be good agreement within guidance of upper
troughing working its way out of the West and into the
Plains/Midwest around Wed-Fri timeframe. Current suite of guidance
progs this troughing to become deepest over the Northern Plains
around Wed-Thu timeframe, although there may still be some
variability in timing. Still, this good agreement of a deepening
trough into the area increases the chance for potentially impactful
winter weather to the area. Details beyond this become less
confident, although there are some clusters within ensemble guidance
that brings QPF amounts exceeding 0.25 inches, a threshold that can
be analogous to accumulating snowfall potential.

Additionally, the majority of ensemble members strengthen a surface
low under this trough moving into the Plains/Midwest around Thursday
next week, thus introducing the potential for gusty winds. Depending
on how much snow the region gets after next week`s warm up, gusty
winds will only compound potential winter impacts as it combines
with fresh snow. At this point, the forecast should be monitored for
those with interests around the region next Wed-Fri, with possible
lingering impacts mainly from increased chances in seasonably cold
temperatures behind this system.

 

  • Like 1

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

If the GFS long range was ever right temp wise, this would be the coldest winter on record.  So overblown every run it's crazy.  

Man I couldn’t agree more, just seems day after day week after week month after month we keep hearing about the cold that’s coming but unfortunately it never does. I know the guys saying it here are just saying what the models are telling them honestly and I don’t blame them but at some point you would think they would look at that same model that told them the cold was coming over and over the past few years that never really does and they would ignore it. Even if we get some cold to come down in the lower 48 next month it will be February already, them lights you see at the end of the tunnel is Spring and it’s coming fast! Don’t get me wrong I enjoy reading some of our long range forecasters occasionally that do post here even though they might only be hitting .300 if their lucky but at least their in the game and trying, better then my sorry a**, I wouldn’t have any idea how to read them models or make a long range forecast. :)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The op GFS has now changed dramatically, sweeping the northern stream through and leaving the southern wave behind to eventually pass much farther southeast.

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

CMC is a day later and hammers many of us with a blizzard.

Its coming south towards your area Clinton.....👍

Btw: I trust CMC 10X more than GFS.

"GFS" elect hopefully is a good one, but we will see how it does.

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I couldn't help but see the similarities to Feb 3rd-11th 2018 and what the models are showing during this same period.  Only looking at this period and not afterwards bc we all know what happened when the epic torch killed our beautiful snow pack in a span of 2-3 days.

Quote

 

CFSv2...

wk1.wk2_latest.NAprec.png

 

 

wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.png

 

 

00z GEFS...

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_6.png

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_8.png

 

Isn't it finally nice to see the GEFS trend colder instead of warmer???  The tides have turned my friends.  Giddy up for some true winter weather.

1.gif

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS ensembles just continue to pound on Iowa.  One of the stronger storms of this years pattern is due in around Valentines Day.  Already some ensemble agreement on that storm and Iowa could be the target again.  Along ways to go and we have some nice storms between now and then but I don't see the snow stopping for my friends to the north.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Tony said:

A thread has already been made for this storm. Just needs to be pinned

Who cares!

  • Downvote 3

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Tony said:

I guess you do since you've been posting there 

Thats right..I'll post where I wish. Free country!

  • Downvote 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    2. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    4. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...