Minny_Weather Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said: Oh my God Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 19 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: Ha! Hays, KS posters are in shambles. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 This will be a tad uncomfortable after being spoiled by above average temps in the 20s with nearly zero wind this entire Winter Quote Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 14. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -4. Northwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 6. Northwest wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -7. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 1. Northwest wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 30 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: This will be a tad uncomfortable after being spoiled by above average temps in the 20s with nearly zero wind this entire Winter From FGF: Quote Behind this system is a strong signal for an arctic air intrusion to overcome the region by next weekend. The reinforcing cold air continues the chance for gusty winds which will only add to potential impacts from wind chills/blowing snow potential. Details in just how low temps will reach remain unclear, although there is presently a signal for widespread subzero temps for an elongated period of time (greater than 48 hours) for locations within the CWA. Sustained stretches of below zero temps are no stranger to here, but with the way this winter has been, it will be a shock to the system. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 The Feb6-7th storm (next weekend potentially), has some brutal, arctic air following it, even during the event, it stays frigid, but especially afterwards. The big question here is, where does a storm form and where does it go. Right now it looks soso for my area, but hopefully that changes. Check out the 12z Euro....... 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Already seeing 14 as highs and lows near 0 on forecasts for next weekend. Euro even colder. I know there will be at least some snow leftover but really want something to freshen it up 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Niko said: The Feb6-7th storm (next weekend potentially), has some brutal, arctic air following it, even during the event, it stays frigid, but especially afterwards. The big question here is, where does a storm form and where does it go. Right now it looks soso for my area, but hopefully that changes. Check out the 12z Euro....... v16 spits out a PV Bliz run tonight.. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, jaster220 said: v16 spits out a PV Bliz run tonight.. Its a beauty! Hope it verifies. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 hours ago, jaster220 said: v16 spits out a PV Bliz run tonight.. The set up is there for a wave to ride the arctic front and unleash the Polar Vortex post storm. This pattern is very reminiscent to what happened 2 years ago in late January. Come to think of it, the PV visits in Jan '14 also brought snows with them before the cold came. Taking a look at the EPS ensemble members and they have many members showing that "look" for some interesting shenanigans across the region. 00z EPS... 00z GEFS sniffing out something across the GL's region... The models are going gun-ho Monster -NAO... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 DMX talking snow squalls ahead of front on Thursday. IMO- they should also be talking snow squalls on Saturday as well along and ahead of the true Arctic Front-- not covering a lot of territory - but those areas that get under one could easily see 1/2' to 1" hour rates- the GFS and Euro -- seeing this at this range is a goof sign for a more robust/widespread event- Consider Snow Squalls the PLains version of Lake Effect-- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 06z NWS Model blend for the next 10 days. Not exactly an exciting pattern from what might have been. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jarod Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 06z NWS Model blend for the next 10 days. Not exactly an exciting pattern from what might have been. Well we might finally get some lake effect over here ... although if it gets as cold as the models are showing, it will probably be tiny flake size and not add up real well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 As we flip the calendar to February here are some preliminary stats for January 2021 and the winter season so far. For January the mean at Grand Rapids was 28.1 and that is a departure of +3.7° There was 9.9” of total snow fall well below the average of around 21” The high for the month was 41 and the low was a mild +11. It has not gotten below zero here now since February 1st, 2019. While only 9.9” of snow fell there was 23 days with at least a inch of snow on the ground. For the winter season only 15.2” have fallen and this is the 6th lowest amount of snow fall at the start of February in Grand Rapids recorded history. Here is a list of the least amounts of snow fall at the start of February 1. 10.3” in the winter of 1931/32. 2. 11.0” in the winter of 1905/06. 3. 12.5” in the winter of 1918/19. 4. 12.8” in the winter of 1932/33. 5. 14.6” in the winter of 1902/03. And now 6. 15.2” in the winter of 2020/21. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Jarod said: Well we might finally get some lake effect over here ... although if it gets as cold as the models are showing, it will probably be tiny flake size and not add up real well. Lakes are still relatively warm. With enough cold air and moisture it will add up over time. This will no doubt be our snowiest month, even without a major storm/s 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Jarod said: Well we might finally get some lake effect over here ... although if it gets as cold as the models are showing, it will probably be tiny flake size and not add up real well. 4 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Lakes are still relatively warm. With enough cold air and moisture it will add up over time. This will no doubt be our snowiest month, even without a major storm/s what extent of cold do we want for moderately sized flakes? The forecasted cold coming down looks a bit similar to 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 43 minutes ago, whatitdo said: what extent of cold do we want for moderately sized flakes? The forecasted cold coming down looks a bit similar to 2019 Moisture plays a big part. It's false to assume it can't snow bigly when it's super cold. The lake will do enough to make it snow here with that forecasted cold, but get a couple little systems to enhance it, It can dump. The lake keeps us warmer as well, so 18 degrees surface temp with a west wind LES can add up, meanwhile in Wisconsin it could be -10. If the winds go lighter and we end up below +10 degrees, tiny flakes and small accumulation. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 06z GFS shows below temps for almost 100 straight hours here this weekend into next week. Coldest temp looks to be about -25F. Highly unlikely unless we get some fresh snow cover from the possible Thursday system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said: 06z GFS shows below temps for almost 100 straight hours here this weekend into next week. Coldest temp looks to be about -25F. Highly unlikely unless we get some fresh snow cover from the possible Thursday system. For those wondering- not even close, But modern day (measured at the Airport) 100 hours is I believe in top 3 or 4. ...ZERO OR BELOW... ...IN HOURS... LONGEST PERIOD...................*186 CONSECUTIVE HOURS FROM...8 PM DEC 31 1911 THROUGH 1 PM JAN 8 1912 * NOTE EXCEPT FOR 4 HRS "ABOVE ZERO" DURING THE ABOVE * * PERIOD THE RECORD WOULD BE...311 CONSECUTIVE HOURS * * FROM...8 PM DEC 31 1911 TO 10 AM JAN 13 1912. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 3 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 ^^ The same can be said for Iowa for the last several years other than maybe 18-19". DSM and C.IA have been low magnets. Others can attest to this. You just got put your time in and let Ma' Nature take over. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Good chance temps go below zero here in mby w that "Arctic Air." W snowcover around and hopefully more snow to come this week, temps could plummet well below zero. W such a pattern change finally, I feel redivivus. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 44 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: For those wondering- not even close, But modern day (measured at the Airport) 100 hours is I believe in top 3 or 4. ...ZERO OR BELOW... ...IN HOURS... LONGEST PERIOD...................*186 CONSECUTIVE HOURS FROM...8 PM DEC 31 1911 THROUGH 1 PM JAN 8 1912 * NOTE EXCEPT FOR 4 HRS "ABOVE ZERO" DURING THE ABOVE * * PERIOD THE RECORD WOULD BE...311 CONSECUTIVE HOURS * * FROM...8 PM DEC 31 1911 TO 10 AM JAN 13 1912. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Thanks Grizz. That's good stuff. I appreciate the research on that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 12z GEFS took a step in the right direction wrt the weekend system... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z GEFS took a step in the right direction wrt the weekend system... Some very nice hits showing up. Heading in the right direction at least Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 12Z Canadian through 204 hours. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 12Z Canadian full run wide view 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 hours ago, Stacsh said: Moisture plays a big part. It's false to assume it can't snow bigly when it's super cold. The lake will do enough to make it snow here with that forecasted cold, but get a couple little systems to enhance it, It can dump. The lake keeps us warmer as well, so 18 degrees surface temp with a west wind LES can add up, meanwhile in Wisconsin it could be -10. If the winds go lighter and we end up below +10 degrees, tiny flakes and small accumulation. Years ago while I still live in GR I worked in Holland one year in early January (1987 I think) there was one night with light wind and a temperature at Holland near zero and at Holland they got over 15" of snow fall in less then 8 hours. It was a fluffy lake effect snow fall with big flakes. That night on the way home the snow stopped just east of Zeeland and it was clear and -15 at GR. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 12Z Euro through 138 hours 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 The ECMWF looks sweet. Look-out Chicago! @indianajohnit buries you! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 12Z Euro full run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 1, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 After the Thursday system, the Euro shows suppression city for the rest of the run. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 ^^ With that kind of near record CAA- no doubt. It's about time others South see at least something and we get cold and blue.... Jackie Blue comes to mind-- Jackie Blue meaning brutal cold--- 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Have to hope the Euro amounts come with some nice wind to drift a little. Still bummed that the big blizzard shown the end of last week has disappeared on the models. Still have a good snowpack here, but it will be eaten away during the week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Euro now also showing nearly 100 straight hours of below 0F temps. Give me a bit of snow on Thursday followed by an epic PV and I'm set for the winter. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12Z Euro full run 5 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 The EC next week gets bomb after bomb. Yikes! They will be stealing our snow chances (hope not), but will have to wait and see on that. Sundays storm "might" not happen, if the energy is transferred off the coast. UGRRRRRRRRGH! In Brooklyn and East Harlem, some of my homeboys there are digging out as well in over a foot. Btw: I have been receiving numerous texts and emails of pics showing the beautiful scenery in NYC and other boroughs as well. Central Park at over a foot (b4 all set and done, looking at near 18.0"). Queens, where my location is also sitting at 16.7" and still snowing. I will try to post some pics on here. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 GFS not as cold this run. Still brutal, but backing off on ridiculous. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 I want it to get cold so these casuals can get off my hill. This upper 20s lower 30s brings out tons of people, this year has SUCKED for snowboarding, 15 minute lines on a weekday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Edit: wrong thread 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 18z GFS v16 to 174 hours. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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