Jump to content

February 2021 Observations and Discussion


Hawkeye

Recommended Posts

This will be a tad uncomfortable after being spoiled by above average temps in the 20s with nearly zero wind this entire Winter

Quote
Thursday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 14. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -4. Northwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 6. Northwest wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -7. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 1. Northwest wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

 

  • Like 3

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

This will be a tad uncomfortable after being spoiled by above average temps in the 20s with nearly zero wind this entire Winter

 

From FGF:

Quote

Behind this system is a strong signal for an arctic air intrusion to
overcome the region by next weekend. The reinforcing cold air
continues the chance for gusty winds which will only add to
potential impacts from wind chills/blowing snow potential. Details
in just how low temps will reach remain unclear, although there is
presently a signal for widespread subzero temps for an elongated
period of time (greater than 48 hours) for locations within the
CWA.

Sustained stretches of below zero temps are no stranger to here, but with the way this winter has been, it will be a shock to the system.

  • Like 3

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Feb6-7th storm (next weekend potentially), has some brutal, arctic air following it, even during the event, it stays frigid, but especially afterwards. The big question here is, where does a storm form and where does it go. Right now it looks soso for my area, but hopefully that changes. Check out the 12z Euro.......

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Already seeing 14 as highs and lows near 0 on forecasts for next weekend. Euro even colder. I know there will be at least some snow leftover but really want something to freshen it up

  • Like 2

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Niko said:

The Feb6-7th storm (next weekend potentially), has some brutal, arctic air following it, even during the event, it stays frigid, but especially afterwards. The big question here is, where does a storm form and where does it go. Right now it looks soso for my area, but hopefully that changes. Check out the 12z Euro.......

v16 spits out a PV Bliz run tonight..

 

20200201 0z GFSv16 162hr Snowfall Totals.PNG

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, jaster220 said:

v16 spits out a PV Bliz run tonight..

 

20200201 0z GFSv16 162hr Snowfall Totals.PNG

Its a beauty! Hope it verifies. 😀

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

v16 spits out a PV Bliz run tonight..

 

20200201 0z GFSv16 162hr Snowfall Totals.PNG

The set up is there for a wave to ride the arctic front and unleash the Polar Vortex post storm.  This pattern is very reminiscent to what happened 2 years ago in late January.  Come to think of it, the PV visits in Jan '14 also brought snows with them before the cold came.  Taking a look at the EPS ensemble members and they have many members showing that "look" for some interesting shenanigans across the region.

00z EPS...

2.png

3.png

 

00z GEFS sniffing out something across the GL's region...

156

 

The models are going gun-ho Monster -NAO...

5.png

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

DMX talking snow squalls ahead of front on Thursday. IMO- they should also be talking snow squalls on Saturday as well along and ahead of the true Arctic Front-- not covering a lot of territory - but those areas that get under one could easily see 1/2' to 1" hour rates- the GFS prateptype_cat.us_mw.pngand Euro -- seeing this at this range is a goof sign for a more robust/widespread event- Consider Snow Squalls the PLains version of Lake Effect-- prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

  • Like 2

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

06z NWS Model blend for the next 10 days.  Not exactly an exciting pattern from what might have been.  😠

NWS Blend 3.png

Well we might finally get some lake effect over here ... although if it gets as cold as the models are showing, it will probably be tiny flake size and not add up real well.

  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As we flip the calendar to February here are some preliminary stats for January 2021 and the winter season so far. For January the mean at Grand Rapids was 28.1 and that is a departure of +3.7° There was 9.9” of total snow fall well below the average of around 21” The high for the month was 41 and the low was a mild +11. It has not gotten below zero here now since February 1st, 2019.  While only 9.9” of snow fell there was 23 days with at least a inch of snow on the ground. For the winter season only 15.2” have fallen and this is the 6th lowest amount of snow fall at the start of February in Grand Rapids recorded history. Here is a list of the least amounts of snow fall at the start of February 1. 10.3” in the winter of 1931/32. 2. 11.0” in the winter of 1905/06. 3. 12.5” in the winter of 1918/19. 4. 12.8” in the winter of 1932/33. 5. 14.6” in the winter of 1902/03. And now 6. 15.2” in the winter of 2020/21.

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Jarod said:

Well we might finally get some lake effect over here ... although if it gets as cold as the models are showing, it will probably be tiny flake size and not add up real well.

Lakes are still relatively warm.  With enough cold air and moisture it will add up over time.  This will no doubt be our snowiest month, even without a major storm/s

  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Jarod said:

Well we might finally get some lake effect over here ... although if it gets as cold as the models are showing, it will probably be tiny flake size and not add up real well.

 

4 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Lakes are still relatively warm.  With enough cold air and moisture it will add up over time.  This will no doubt be our snowiest month, even without a major storm/s

what extent of cold do we want for moderately sized flakes? The forecasted cold coming down looks a bit similar to 2019

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

 

what extent of cold do we want for moderately sized flakes? The forecasted cold coming down looks a bit similar to 2019

Moisture plays a big part.  It's false to assume it can't snow bigly when it's super cold.  The lake will do enough to make it snow here with that forecasted cold, but get a couple little systems to enhance it, It can dump.  The lake keeps us warmer as well, so 18 degrees surface temp with a west wind LES can add up, meanwhile in Wisconsin it could be -10.  If the winds go lighter and we end up below +10 degrees, tiny flakes and small accumulation.  

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

06z GFS shows below temps for almost 100 straight hours here this weekend into next week. Coldest temp looks to be about -25F. Highly unlikely unless we get some fresh snow cover from the possible Thursday system.  

For those wondering- not even close, But modern day (measured at the Airport)  100 hours is I believe in top 3 or 4.

...ZERO OR BELOW... ...IN HOURS...
LONGEST PERIOD...................*186 CONSECUTIVE HOURS
       FROM...8 PM DEC 31 1911 THROUGH 1 PM JAN 8 1912
     * NOTE EXCEPT FOR 4 HRS "ABOVE ZERO" DURING THE ABOVE *
     * PERIOD THE RECORD WOULD BE...311 CONSECUTIVE HOURS  *
     * FROM...8 PM DEC 31 1911 TO 10 AM JAN 13 1912.       *
     * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

^^ The same can be said for Iowa for the last several years other than maybe 18-19". DSM and C.IA have been low magnets. Others can attest to this. You just got put your time in and let Ma' Nature take over.

  • Like 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good chance temps go below zero here in mby w that "Arctic Air." W snowcover around and hopefully more snow to come this week, temps could plummet well below zero. W such a pattern change finally, I feel redivivus.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

For those wondering- not even close, But modern day (measured at the Airport)  100 hours is I believe in top 3 or 4.


...ZERO OR BELOW... ...IN HOURS...
LONGEST PERIOD...................*186 CONSECUTIVE HOURS
       FROM...8 PM DEC 31 1911 THROUGH 1 PM JAN 8 1912
     * NOTE EXCEPT FOR 4 HRS "ABOVE ZERO" DURING THE ABOVE *
     * PERIOD THE RECORD WOULD BE...311 CONSECUTIVE HOURS  *
     * FROM...8 PM DEC 31 1911 TO 10 AM JAN 13 1912.       *
     * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Thanks Grizz. That's good stuff. I appreciate the research on that. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Moisture plays a big part.  It's false to assume it can't snow bigly when it's super cold.  The lake will do enough to make it snow here with that forecasted cold, but get a couple little systems to enhance it, It can dump.  The lake keeps us warmer as well, so 18 degrees surface temp with a west wind LES can add up, meanwhile in Wisconsin it could be -10.  If the winds go lighter and we end up below +10 degrees, tiny flakes and small accumulation.  

Years ago while I still live in GR I worked in Holland one year in early January (1987 I think) there was one night with light wind and a temperature at Holland near zero and at Holland they got over 15" of snow fall in less then 8 hours. It was a fluffy lake effect snow fall with big flakes. That night on the way home the snow stopped just east of Zeeland and it was clear and -15 at GR. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

^^ With that kind of near record CAA- no doubt. It's about time others South see at least something and we get cold and blue.... Jackie Blue comes to mind-- Jackie Blue meaning brutal cold---

sfctapp.us_mw.png

  • Like 3

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The EC next week gets bomb after bomb. Yikes! They will be stealing our snow chances (hope not), but will have to wait and see on that. Sundays storm "might" not happen, if the energy is transferred off the coast. UGRRRRRRRRGH!

In Brooklyn and East Harlem, some of my homeboys there are digging out as well in over a foot.

Btw: I have been receiving numerous texts and emails of pics showing the beautiful scenery in NYC and other boroughs as well. Central Park at over a foot (b4 all set and done, looking at near 18.0"). Queens, where my location is also sitting at 16.7" and still snowing. I will try to post some pics on here.

 

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...