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February 2021 Observations and Discussion


Hawkeye

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The skies are clear as can be with full sunshine on this winters day.  Temps have shot up above the forecasted highs into the mid 30's (35F).  There is some melting going on today and will prob eat away at some of the snow pack.  It feels relatively warm out there with calm winds.  Man, it's going to be the complete opposite come tomorrow when the snow is flying and blowing around.  Enjoy this warmer day while you can before we combat the Arctic Invasion of 2021.

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The sun is out over here as well, but it's only in the upper 20s.  It helps to not live within a huge urban heat island.  It's in the low 40s in sw Iowa.  It is so easy for areas farther west to warm up, even with deep snow cover.  The plains are snow eaters.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The sun is out over here as well, but it's only in the upper 20s.  It helps to not live within a huge urban heat island.

UHI in full effect today with no wind that can mix up the air.  Its crazy bc if you drive out west into the rural areas temps are in the 20's where there is open land.  Where you have buildings, streets, etc temps are all in the mid 30's even in places that are 40 miles west of Chicago.

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The sun is out over here as well, but it's only in the upper 20s.  It helps to not live within a huge urban heat island.  It's in the low 40s in sw Iowa.  It is so easy for areas farther west to warm up, even with deep snow cover.  The plains are snow eaters.

It's 42 here this afternoon but it would probably be 20 degrees warmer without snow on the ground. Everywhere south and west outside of the snowpack zone is 60+. I just saw 72 in Goodland, KS! 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

With this forecasted prolonged cold and snow- one month comes to mind rather easily. Dec 2000. If you lived in IA in DEC 2000 you know what I'am talking about. 2nd coldest ever and #1 snowiest at DSM.

December 2000 (30.2”) & February 2008 (30.5”) were the two snowiest months of my records, if I checked accurately.

 

Book_1_(Autosaved)_copy.pdf

 

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Gorgeous day today w plenty of sunshine and temps fairly decent for this time of the year. Highs made it into the mid 30s. Rude awakening coming for a lot of people here.......😆

Yes, there is snowcover around and looks nice, although wish there was  a lot more snow, but that might change. Tbh, I am getting vibes of 2013-14 for next week.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The sun is out over here as well, but it's only in the upper 20s.  It helps to not live within a huge urban heat island.  It's in the low 40s in sw Iowa.  It is so easy for areas farther west to warm up, even with deep snow cover.  The plains are snow eaters.

Finally weak sunshine just now for the first time in days. Seems like I’m to often in the cloudiest spot. 

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Big trends towards a formidable system on the latest 18z GEFS...as well as today's 12z EPS...this one will likely be another storm thread.  Like some have mentioned, there are so many waves/systems its going to get kinda hectic following all of these!  I like the fact that this has potential to cover a large area of the Sub as well.

 

120

 

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So I’m getting a little confused with all the storms.. 😂 So I have to head to Indianapolis this Sunday early in the morning. And if any of you have driven I65 in Indiana during a snow storm it is one of the scariest things you can do LOL. North/South interstate with nothing but open farmland for 100’s of miles plows cant keep up with the blowing snow and it becomes an ice rink... I have been trying to keep track but been hard to keep up.. so how’s does my drive look for Sunday? Cancel or I should be good? 

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15 minutes ago, Tom said:

Big trends towards a formidable system on the latest 18z GEFS...as well as today's 12z EPS...this one will likely be another storm thread.  Like some have mentioned, there are so many waves/systems its going to get kinda hectic following all of these!  I like the fact that this has potential to cover a large area of the Sub as well.

 

120

 

Possibly even a mixture for me.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Big trends towards a formidable system on the latest 18z GEFS...as well as today's 12z EPS...this one will likely be another storm thread.  Like some have mentioned, there are so many waves/systems its going to get kinda hectic following all of these!  I like the fact that this has potential to cover a large area of the Sub as well.

 

120

 

So... let's all root for e20?

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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8 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The sun is out over here as well, but it's only in the upper 20s.  It helps to not live within a huge urban heat island.  It's in the low 40s in sw Iowa.  It is so easy for areas farther west to warm up, even with deep snow cover.  The plains are snow eaters.

My high today was 36f.  And look how far south I am. My lawn has 13 inches on it. Im in a very wooded location.  Definitely  not KS

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8 hours ago, indianajohn said:

So I’m getting a little confused with all the storms.. 😂 So I have to head to Indianapolis this Sunday early in the morning. And if any of you have driven I65 in Indiana during a snow storm it is one of the scariest things you can do LOL. North/South interstate with nothing but open farmland for 100’s of miles plows cant keep up with the blowing snow and it becomes an ice rink... I have been trying to keep track but been hard to keep up.. so how’s does my drive look for Sunday? Cancel or I should be good? 

That's really tough to say ATM bc non of the models agree on the timing/intensity of the multiple waves this weekend.  The Euro shows it coming in later Sun after 6:00pm.  I'd plan on the possibility of postponing the trip if you can.  There may be a window for you to head down there early Sun morning.

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After a couple of mornings where it was much colder here than at that the airport today I am now back on the same page. The official low at GR overnight was 20 and the low here was a little warmer at 22. At this time it is partly cloudy and 25 both here and at the airport.

It is now time to see how this weekends event plays out.

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Clouds have already started to increase, along w a temp of 18F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I think the fact that the trough is digging a little further to SW over the weekend, will pay off for a lot of us with the stronger storm forcasted to develop on Monday.

I have thought the same way.  I'll look to see the trend in the other models.  For example, here is the 12Z HRW NSSL model that only goes to 48 hours.  The other two HRW models have also put this first wave over Nebraska moving southeast.  Looks similar to GFS and Canadian from earlier.

HRW.png

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If the Euro is onto something, then these numbers could rival some of the coldest we have seen in a very long time. Would have to go back to 1983 to see projected highs in my area in the -5 to-10 range! WOW, if we keep getting the snow pack then these numbers have a chance to coming to fruition! Here is the projected low and high for next weekend! 

sfct.conus.png

sfct.conus-1.png

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This tidbit from LOT should bring back good memories for the GL folks

This
general pattern featuring negative height anomalies over the north
central US will essentially lock in due to the blocking to the
north while positive height anomalies develop from the southern US
to at least up into the Mid Atlantic.

The general pattern described above has historically been
characterized by snowy and very cold conditions across the
Midwest, and is a decent analog for January-February 2014 (aside
from the extreme NAO blocking which that winter did not have).
This is due to our area being positioned right on the nose of a
strong polar jet and multiple Pacific hybrid type waves coming
ashore in the northeast Pacific and tracking southeast then east.
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Need to watch Sunday night/Monday

 

20210204 CPC hazards_d3_7_contours.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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