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February 2021 Observations and Discussion


Hawkeye

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Dsm needs approximately 25" more snow to have the snowiest winter ever recorded. With runs of guidance today, it's got a reasonable chance.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I don’t even know what to say at this point. There’s just so much going on and so much to track it’s so confusing lol. I prefer it over the never ending 2 weeks out “winter is coming”. What a historic stretch for Nebraska! 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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2 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Good ole Wx Bell Kuchera lol. That would only put Lincoln at like 80" for the season 😆

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Seems WxBell folks really missed the DEGEX weenie runs so they tweaked their Kuchie formula, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Another wild weather  day in the Ottumwa  Iowa area.

Dropped to -4f this am..  

3.6" new snow

Dropped  to -9f this pm.

Nearing 20" of snow depth now.  The  first 6 to 8 inches on the ground  is solid ice. Since the massive ice/snow on Dec 28th .  Over 35 inches of snow since Dec 28th and 2 big rains  of 1.6 inches last week.

 

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The GFS continues to bring the PV lobe south into the upper midwest, which suppresses everything.  The GDPS and UK do not.  The last couple Euro runs also did not.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

Pics taken in & near Argusville and Gardner, ND. Temps were in the -17*F area the entire time. Actually burned my hand touching my metal tripod a couple times.

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Fantastic pics!  I've always wanted to witness the northern lights up north.  Looks pretty awesome.  It doesn't look like there is much snow OTG.  Is the open grass I see in the 1st pic at the bottom?  Prob due to blowing snow in the open fields.

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00z EURO brings the Mon/Tue system a bit farther N than the GFS as it lays down another healthy refresher for a lot of peeps along the I-80 corridor.  I'm pondering on what to do with all these waves coming down the pipeline this week as the models get a better handle on timing.  Shall we create a separate thread for each?  Ex: Mon-Tue, Wed-Fri???

 

 

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I seriously am speechless and at the same time, quite amazed, what this pattern has in store for many members on here.  Just...In...Credible...I'll say it now, as I've said before, we are literally seeing every piece to the puzzle line up for the "heartland of the nation."  When you look at the key locations of the blocking, the sustained cold air mass, the storm track, the ever-building snow pack and the end result of the SSW event that took place in January...what else could you ask Nature to do???  It's like a Royal Flush.  My goodness.  Are we entering a period that could be a once in a lifetime event???  A 100 year event??  Who knows and time will tell...but I will say, when looking at geographic regions that support a pattern ripe for consistent storms you look no farther than the East Coast.  They typically are the ones who get pounded by storms over and over again bc of the vicinity of the ocean/land connection, but to create a pattern favorable for systems to keep tracking across the heartland of the nation every 2 or 3 days without having to break up a locked pattern is really hard to do.  You typically have one or maybe two storms ride up a thermal gradient boundary and then call it a day bc the pattern post storm would flush out any chance of "repeating" storms.  This week, however, the immense power of the west-based Greenland Block and a slightly - PNA will keep the storm track rolling through our Sub and delivering the GOODS.

Overnight runs of all the global models are trending quite snowy for the majority of the Heartland, but esp across the MW/Lower Lakes region over the next 2 weeks.  I'm quite thrilled to see the overall pattern suppress farther S/SE this month bc it is lining up to with my original ideas way back when.  With that being said, once we get passed this incredible week filled with multiple waves/systems and cold, we will focus on the next opportunities I foresee the following week.  Yes, the pattern that keeps on giving, will keep on delivering....white gold...when do you ask???  The period between Valentine's Day and the 16th, is IMO, going to be a widespread "share the wealth" slow-moving winter storm followed by yet another "weekend storm" on the 20th-21st.

00z EPS...suggesting a massive amount of real estate covered by snow over the next 2 weeks...

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00z GEFS...pretty similar...

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Who else has lost track of all the interesting wx related events taking place???  It's hard to focus on just one or two things bc there are so many fascinating pieces/events taking place all at the same time.  Who woulda thought this monumental flip in the pattern would happen?  I'm just glad and tickled with excitement it did and it appears that this is only just the beginning of a LONG stretch of Winter for our Sub.  Not to get to far ahead of myself, but I do see March "roaring in like a Lion" this year as one of the LRC's signature storms is due once we flip the calendar into met Spring.  The Greenland Block will continue to pay dividends next month and I don't see it leaving anytime soon.  Once a block locks in like it is going to, it's hard to break it down.  Just like in recent years when we were delt with a sustained +NAO, every time there was a hint of it going negative, boom, it went back (+), not this year, not in 2021.

 

Well, I think that's about enough for now, enjoy Super Bowl Sunday everyone and enjoy the snow for those who are seeing it fly today!  

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

00z EURO brings the Mon/Tue system a bit farther N than the GFS as it lays down another healthy refresher for a lot of peeps along the I-80 corridor.  I'm pondering on what to do with all these waves coming down the pipeline this week as the models get a better handle on timing.  Shall we create a separate thread for each?  Ex: Mon-Tue, Wed-Fri???

 

 

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Not a bad idea and that would help in splitting up the 2 bigger waves.

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Overnight I recorded 2.5" of new snow fall. Of course with it being cold and mostly lake effect snow it is very fluffy snow. There is now a total of 14.0" of snow on the ground here in my yard. At the current time it is +6° with light snow falling. Per the GRR hourly reports it now has been snowing for 63 hours in a row at Grand Rapids.

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Hastings morning disco:  

“The coldest period looks to be Thu to Sat. Highs may struggle to get above zero for some on Fri. Current indications are for near-advisory level wind chills for N half of CWA Wed night into Thu AM, then solid advisory or even warning level wind chills Thu night-Fri AM and again Fri night-Sat AM. Could threaten both record cold lows and highs towards Fri and Sat. Ensembles indicate potential for quick moving system in zonal flow and more snow Thu- Fri, with potentially stronger system in about 7-8 days.”

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2 hours ago, westMJim said:

Overnight I recorded 2.5" of new snow fall. Of course with it being cold and mostly lake effect snow it is very fluffy snow. There is now a total of 14.0" of snow on the ground here in my yard. At the current time it is +6° with light snow falling. Per the GRR hourly reports it now has been snowing for 63 hours in a row at Grand Rapids.

This must be a fun experience to have it snow non-stop for daysss....the lake is your friend!

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

Fantastic pics!  I've always wanted to witness the northern lights up north.  Looks pretty awesome.  It doesn't look like there is much snow OTG.  Is the open grass I see in the 1st pic at the bottom?  Prob due to blowing snow in the open fields.

It's definitely a sight to behold. They were actually dull to the naked eye, but nothing that a slow shutter setting can't fix.

Definitely not much snow depth to my north and west. Combine that with all the blowing that's happened the past couple of days, and there are quite a few bare spots.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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6 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

It's definitely a sight to behold. They were actually dull to the naked eye, but nothing that a slow shutter setting can't fix.

Definitely not much snow depth to my north and west. Combine that with all the blowing that's happened the past couple of days, and there are quite a few bare spots.

was the same around here....took a couple longer exposures with my phone to make sure they were the lights. Didn't want to go through the trouble of getting the tripod and camera out in the cold😀

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What we all get later this week into the weekend will depend a lot on what happens with the PV lobe.  The GFS continues to dive it south into the upper midwest, which suppresses everything south.  The GDPS, UK, and Euro keep the PV farther northwest, which allows pacific waves to slide eastward through our region.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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