Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 There may be an enormous area of good snow cover by the end of the weekend. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12z GFS through 150 hours. Things suppressed to the south. Will be interesting if that is the trend for the week and other models. Expect fluctuations on every model run. I wouldn't bite on any run until it actually starts to snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 I’m not sure where this comment belongs, but currently it’s looking very pretty outside with nice big dentrites floating down as a decent band of snow is developing along I-80. I’m hoping it doesn’t shift just north. I picked up 1.3” of pure fluff overnight as well, with just 0.03” liquid equivalent. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 43 minutes ago, Tom said: I see you used the”word of the day”...it is rather gelid outside today! Yep, I think its the best word that can be described for today. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albiahawk Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 more inches of fluff in Albia since noon on Sunday. Running out of places to put it, hope none of these systems have much wind with them or we will have a full fledged ground blizzard around here that we haven't seen in a long, long time. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 @Tom NOAA sees an opportunity for something more substantial towards late week and beyond..... Quote:With an expanding upper low positioned over the northern plains by the end of the forecast, it is not inconceivable that one of these later waves will be more substantial (compared to the more clipper- esqe style wave during the week) as any shortwave ejecting into the area will arrive from the southwest CONUS with the potential for better moisture transport into the region within the broadening southwest upper level flow such a pattern would establish. Such a pattern would also be more conducive for a phasing of the southern stream wave with the northern stream upper low. Something to keep in mind in the event that a southern stream wave over-achieves -vs- the current envelop of medium range model solutions. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Niko said: @Tom NOAA sees an opportunity for something more substantial towards late week and beyond..... Quote:With an expanding upper low positioned over the northern plains by the end of the forecast, it is not inconceivable that one of these later waves will be more substantial (compared to the more clipper- esqe style wave during the week) as any shortwave ejecting into the area will arrive from the southwest CONUS with the potential for better moisture transport into the region within the broadening southwest upper level flow such a pattern would establish. Such a pattern would also be more conducive for a phasing of the southern stream wave with the northern stream upper low. Something to keep in mind in the event that a southern stream wave over-achieves -vs- the current envelop of medium range model solutions. Yup, I'm hoping the models figure out the Valentine's Day system over the next day or so. It's been on my calendar during this period for a Southern Stream storm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 12z GEFS showing more members for this weekend...Valentine's Day cutter? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Tom said: Yup, I'm hoping the models figure out the Valentine's Day system over the next day or so. It's been on my calendar during this period for a Southern Stream storm. Indeed, also, my local forecaster last nite mentioned this potential for "Valentines Day" and said that this storm, if everything develops perfectly, could have some great snowfall accumulations for a lot of peeps on here. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Bummer... this good band of snow this morning doesn't want to lift up into the Cedar Rapids area. It appears I'll be on the edge. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 It's snowing nicely on the very south end of CR. I wish I was at my house in Tiffin or in North Liberty as the better bands are just a few miles south of here. I bet someone picks up 2" from this, because where I'm at now the snow is accumulating decent and the radar returns here are weak. Further south, I bet it piles up in a hurry. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The UK has joined the PV-plunge models this weekend. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 12z GGEM...through Friday... Through this weekend... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The snow band this morning is showing signs of lifting up to CR. I think there will be some over performing snows out of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 39 minutes ago, Tony said: Expect fluctuations on every model run. I wouldn't bite on any run until it actually starts to snow. Models this morning are all over the place. This extreme cold will have an influence, just not sure how. Lots of nowcasts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Nice snow falling right now, might be getting close to an inch for the day. 10 degrees with a heat index of -3. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, Clinton said: Nice snow falling right now, might be getting close to an inch for the day. 10 degrees with a heat index of -3. Lets build up that glacier down there! 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Being on the northern edge of the snow band, it is not snowing hard. However, it is a snow globe with large flakes and no wind. It almost looks like a slow-motion snowfall. 3 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 12z Euro through 144 hours, Sunday morning. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 hours ago, bud2380 said: There are so many waves, and so much run to run variance on any systems beyond a few days, it's really hard to get a feel for how much snow may actually fall during this pattern. A week ago most models showed that much of Iowa would get 8-12" of snow from Thursday through today, but nothing really materialized here outside of the blizzard Thursday which did drop 4-6" locally. So when again the GFS and Euro are showing wide spread high totals over much of the area, it's still hard to feel very confident about any of it. The Euro shows widespread snow (2-5" type range) on Thursday, GFS is dry. The GFS shows a strong system Wednesday for MO and IL, where the Euro is mostly dry or very weak. The GFS has a weak system Friday and a strong system Saturday that would affect most of this forum, but the Euro shows nothing substantial during that time. It feels like you may as well not even look at anything beyond 48 hours right now with this pattern as it likely will change, and potentially dramatically beyond that time frame. Ive had 9.5 inches since last Thursday 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12z Euro through 144 hours, Sunday morning. I would happily take 5-6" of fluff this week ahead of the PV plunge. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Nice little swath of snow coming for later today and into tanite. Hopefully, it can overachieve. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Report of 1.5” already today in Tiffin. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 23 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Being on the northern edge of the snow band, it is not snowing hard. However, it is a snow globe with large flakes and no wind. It almost looks like a slow-motion snowfall. It’s the same way here except I was on the south edge and it’s quite light now. It would be neat to get 10” of this fluff just to experience it once in a lifetime! Usually don’t get much around here once it’s fluffy, dry snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 hours ago, Tom said: 12z GGEM...through Friday... Through this weekend... 48 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12z Euro through 144 hours, Sunday morning. So now some models still are showing a nice amount of snow right through my area! I guess we’ll see how that all pans out after awhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The snow band has lifted north to solidly put Cedar Rapids under it. Again, it's not heavy here, but it's a nice fluff coating. There's some pretty heavy snow in a band just north of the QC. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just realized LOT issued a WWA for 1-3” today. This was def a surprise. I like where I sit with this one as the heavier bands seem to be along the I-88 corridor and knocking on my doorstep. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Looks like a solid 1.5" here at work on the south edge of CR. Snow continues to fall with nice sized flakes. Looks like another hour or two yet, maybe longer. 2" looks like a lock, maybe even 3" if the snow band holds together long enough. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 I'm at about 1" now. I can see through this stuff so it's probably 30:1 ratio. The band over central Iowa is waning and DVN radar shows it weakening up here, so I probably won't make 1.5". I'd love to see some totals from under the stationary yellow band between CR and the QC. 3 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Western Dakotas is not the place to be for once 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albiahawk Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Looks like a couple more bands, one in south central Iowa, near me, and one just southwest of DMX might be developing. Light snow has just started falling here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Getting light snow now w a temp of 17F. Radar looks impressive. Maybe an overachiever coming. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Big Fatties flying. band is setting up between I-90 and I-88 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 I got an additional inch of snow since it started this forenoon, or 2.3” with last night’s round. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3.5" report out of Iowa City. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Beautiful daytime snowfall...flakes are nice and big like puff balls. Looks similar to LES. The heavier band is lifting north into my area now. Hoping to squeeze out 2” from this. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Jim Flowers video on his winter prediction from November. https://fb.watch/3xqhacuh2M/ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 21 minutes ago, Tom said: Beautiful daytime snowfall...flakes are nice and big like puff balls. Looks similar to LES. The heavier band is lifting north into my area now. Hoping to squeeze out 2” from this. Should be snowing late into the evening so I would expect a little more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 18z GFS through 150 hours. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 My snow total today is 1.1" from only 0.03" liquid... a 36:1 ratio. Two days ago, with the temperature about the same, the ratio was 10:1. Flake quality matters. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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