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February 2021 Observations and Discussion


Hawkeye

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The models continue to throw us a few teaser runs, but then quickly go back to suppressed.  The 06z GFS would be awesome for many, but I don't buy it with other models going the other way.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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40 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The models continue to throw us a few teaser runs, but then quickly go back to suppressed.  The 06z GFS would be awesome for many, but I don't buy it with other models going the other way.

12Z even more suppressed.  It's basically just going to be cold, with a few fluffy light snow events.  

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Just now, Tony said:

It's not a big dog but still warning type snows

No doubt and I should have been more specific.  I think it's a reasonable run for my area given how cold and limited QPF will be.  I would think the further NE the better chances of higher amounts.

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It's so hard to put any stock in any run of any model at this point.  The run to run variability has been off the charts.  Today's 12z NAM and RDPS both are showing a robust system now on Friday (NAM pictured below).  But the GFS is weak on Friday and the Euro has almost nothing.  We've seen both the GFS and Euro flip flop from historic snow amounts to significantly less from run to run.  With the incredibly cold air in place even the smallest amounts of qpf are shooting snow totals through the roof, so even small changes on a run are causing snow totals to change several inches in many spots.  I really don't think you can put much stock in anything more than 48 hours out at this point.  Look at yesterday here in Eastern Iowa and into N. Illinois.  No model was showing up to 5" of snow falling, but that is what ended up happening.  

 

 

ref1km_ptype.us_mw.png

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Not bad w last nites snowfall....managed to receive 3" in mby. 👍

 

Feb9th, 2021.jpg

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  • Storm 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

No doubt and I should have been more specific.  I think it's a reasonable run for my area given how cold and limited QPF will be.  I would think the further NE the better chances of higher amounts.

Hope the south trend stops on future runs or its over this far north

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I will start to get more interested when the 0z model runs come in tonight and the 12z models tomorrow.  NWS Hastings says they might start getting some snowfall potential maps out tomorrow afternoon.  Some models that were huge yesterday are much lower today.  Lets see if that's a trend or if it reverts back.  With these bitterly cold temps, any wave could look weak but drop more snow due to high ratios.  We'll see.

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Attm, temp is at 18F under mostly sunny skies, along w a very nice snowcover around. Snow after snow has really been piling up here.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Some fun 2021 odds and ends.  So far in 2021 the warmest it has gotten is 41. And the warmest so far this month is just 37. For January that high of 41 is well below the 100-year average highest for January of 48. And the highest for February so far of 37 is also well below the average highest in February of 50. The coldest it has been this winter season so far here at Grand Rapids is +2 the last time it has gotten below zero here at Grand Rapids is February 1st, 2019. The last time Grand Rapids had gone 2 years without getting below zero was in the 1930’s. With the recent snow fall Grand Rapids is now at 16.1” for February so February will end up above average but the seasonal total of 31.3” is still almost two feet below were we should be by this date and Grand Rapids still needs 10 more inches to not have a top 10 winter season lowest seasonal snow fall. At this time the official snow depth at Grand Rapids is 10" here at my house I have a average of 13"

 

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5 hours ago, GDR said:

Another 4-5 where are we going to put the snow? 

Plenty of room around here. We've had many snowier stretches since I moved here in August 2008. Allowing for this is still a work in progress. And nth I'm  curious if this can have legs to join the more elite winter months of lore, or if it will just be Chicago and west with us on the sidelines

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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23 minutes ago, Jaycee said:

Anybody guess where we went to see the fluffy flakes last night? 😂🤔

 

#1 Thing Scientists Still Can't Explain: What career did peter have to afford that house and support 8 kids and a wife and go on fancy family vacations every year

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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22 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Incredible.  I'll have to measure when I get home.  I've never attempted to melt it down, frankly I'm not sure the proper way to do so, but I'd be interested to know.  
 

 

I usually don’t take core samples if there are small amounts of snow like yesterday, especially if the gauge catch seems accurate from not having much wind. And I just set the gauges in a bucket of nearly hot water and melt it that way, though it takes longer to melt. I don’t really like the idea of melting snow in a kettle on a stove as some could evaporate if not careful enough.
 

Here’s a picture slideshow from the CoCoRaHS website showing an example of how to take and measure the liquid content of snow with the type of 4” diameter gauge Hawkeye and I use. I don’t use a fly swatter or spatula as they show, though that works. I like to use thin cardboard to slide underneath like Hawkeye mentioned.
https://media.cocorahs.org/docs/MeasuringSnow2.1.pdf

Or you can watch one of their videos if you have time. On this website https://www.cocorahs.org/ just click the link to YouTube videos where there are several videos showing you how to take snow core samples, etc. You probably knew about this site, but I thought maybe someone else would be interested too.
 

And if you’re interested in purchasing such a gauge, here’s a link of one that’s supposedly on sale.https://weatheryourway.com/collections/cocorahs-gauge-parts. Amazon might have them as well.

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1 hour ago, Sparky said:

Looks like the fluffy snow we had.

Yes...so fluffy that you did not need a shovel for this snow. A broom was all ya needed. It was a nice mini - snowevent. At times it came down moderate. Too bad it was a quick mover.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

GFS showing no let up for the southern and eastern members over the next 10 days.  

1613757600-wGb9bKQIHQc.png

Looks like our friend OKwx scores nicely down the road.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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