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February 2021 Observations and Discussion


Hawkeye

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Had an even -15.0F at my place  20 minutes WNW of DSM this morning. Been in home since DEC 2002'- without digging out the archives - probably 5th-7th coldest morning since DEC 2002' Coldest was -22F Jan 30th 2019.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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After I shoveled the compacted powder from yesterday, I measured my snow depth and it stands at 12.5”.  ORD has a depth of 13”.  It’s quite the wintry landscape around town.  It really has been an impressive snow streak as we have seen nearly 2 feet of snow the past 2 weeks with more to come.

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3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Had an even -15.0F at my place  20 minutes WNW of DSM this morning. Been in home since DEC 2002'- without digging out the archives - probably 5th-7th coldest morning since DEC 2002' Coldest was -22F Jan 30th 2019.

I had -28° that morning! I had two weather stations at that time, but stored the old one to use if I need a backup.

Oops, looks like my coldest was on the 31st of that month. My bad.

589CBC05-60F1-4663-9BF4-518B40117971.jpeg

A6AEC013-0088-476E-9D5C-D969EDD332F7.jpeg

Edited by Sparky
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Alright, Alright, Alright....while we are immersed in the grip of Ol' Man Winter galore, #realwinter has decidedly shown up for many of us across our Sub this week.  Is that all mother nature has in store???  Not quite...my long standing idea was for the pattern to shift more towards the S/SE parts of the Sub as we headed deeper into Feb and that appears to be trending that way for the following.  I will title this post "Is the Best yet to Come?"  

For those members who have been missed this season, the pattern shifts towards one that could conceivably be the best week of the winter season.  Your patience may be rewarded.  I see an ideal set up for "cutter alley" to develop from KC to Chicago to Detroit.  Back-to-Back-to-Back cutters in the works?  Yes, I see the potential, if all lines up just right (I do feel strongly about this) that from President's day into the following weekend we will track 2-3 formidable storms.  All tracking on the heels of one another that could lay down historic snowfalls from the S Plains/MW/Lower Lakes region and re-write history books.  I'll be honest, full disclosure, when I said I'm delaying my trip to AZ I was not kidding.  As a true winter wx enthusiast, the upcoming 10 day stretch is prob going to be the highlight reel of the season for many who have missed out on the early season snows.  I'm literally licking my chops at what I'm seeing and the LRC is going to shine once again.

 

00z EPS indicating a Southern Stream Dream storm track and the President's Day storm is coming into focus.  @OKwx2k4 get'r ready my brotha, your gonna be in the mix with this one.  KC peeps and @Clinton and @jaster220 @Niko and the rest of the WI/MI/IN crew, something big is brewing up for this part of the Sub.

1.png

 

The Hurricane Delta part of the LRC is coming during the Mon-Wed period and this storm has the potential to be the Big Dog cutter some of us have been patiently waiting for all season long.

00z Euro develops a deep low along the Gulf coast on President's Day...Arklatex Cutter???  The EPS agrees and the placement of the "Banana High" over the top is ideally located.

 

 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_7.png

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_7.png

 

 

06z GFS seeing the potential...

snku_024h.us_c.png

 

 

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

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59 minutes ago, Tom said:

Alright, Alright, Alright....while we are immersed in the grip of Ol' Man Winter galore, #realwinter has decidedly shown up for many of us across our Sub this week.  Is that all mother nature has in store???  Not quite...my long standing idea was for the pattern to shift more towards the S/SE parts of the Sub as we headed deeper into Feb and that appears to be trending that way for the following.  I will title this post "Is the Best yet to Come?"  

For those members who have been missed this season, the pattern shifts towards one that could conceivably be the best week of the winter season.  Your patience may be rewarded.  I see an ideal set up for "cutter alley" to develop from KC to Chicago to Detroit.  Back-to-Back-to-Back cutters in the works?  Yes, I see the potential, if all lines up just right (I do feel strongly about this) that from President's day into the following weekend we will track 2-3 formidable storms.  All tracking on the heels of one another that could lay down historic snowfalls from the S Plains/MW/Lower Lakes region and re-write history books.  I'll be honest, full disclosure, when I said I'm delaying my trip to AZ I was not kidding.  As a true winter wx enthusiast, the upcoming 10 day stretch is prob going to be the highlight reel of the season for many who have missed out on the early season snows.  I'm literally licking my chops at what I'm seeing and the LRC is going to shine once again.

 

00z EPS indicating a Southern Stream Dream storm track and the President's Day storm is coming into focus.  @OKwx2k4 get'r ready my brotha, your gonna be in the mix with this one.  KC peeps and @Clinton and @jaster220 @Niko and the rest of the WI/MI/IN crew, something big is brewing up for this part of the Sub.

1.png

 

The Hurricane Delta part of the LRC is coming during the Mon-Wed period and this storm has the potential to be the Big Dog cutter some of us have been patiently waiting for all season long.

00z Euro develops a deep low along the Gulf coast on President's Day...Arklatex Cutter???  The EPS agrees and the placement of the "Banana High" over the top is ideally located.

 

 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_7.png

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_7.png

 

 

06z GFS seeing the potential...

snku_024h.us_c.png

 

 

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

Very exciting part of the pattern Tom.  Woke up to a half inch of unexpected snow this morning and then took a look at the Euro version of this storm.  I gotta say this day is off to a good start.

Also keep in mind these ratios are at 10:1 most of us will do much better than that.

1613520000-mb90hRi68Vs.png

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25 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Very exciting part of the pattern Tom.  Woke up to a half inch of unexpected snow this morning and then took a look at the Euro version of this storm.  I gotta say this day is off to a good start.

Also keep in mind these ratios are at 10:1 most of us will do much better than that.

1613520000-mb90hRi68Vs.png

00z EPS snow mean...can one dream???

1.png

 

2.png

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7 hours ago, james1976 said:

Potential record lows coming for Sunday & Monday mornings.

That’s not good because my aunt near Beatrice, NE. recently died so I have a funeral/burial to attend Sunday pm. here in my community, as most of the family lives here and this is where she grew up. Hopefully it’s nearly calm like the last few days! 

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KC office mentioning snow potential Mon-Tues this morning.

While there may be some marginal "warming up" for the early part of
next week, temperatures will remain very dangerous. Models seem to
be hinting at a more organized mid level pattern conducive for some
formidable snow production for Monday or Tuesday. The mid level
pattern goes more SW ahead of an approaching deep wave. The better
forcing would make for better snow production, but models seem to be
struggling with it`s make up and path through the CONUS, and with it
being 5-6 days out that`s understandable, but worth watching.

 

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58 minutes ago, Sparky said:

That’s not good because my aunt near Beatrice, NE. recently died so I have a funeral/burial to attend Sunday pm. here in my community, as most of the family lives here and this is where she grew up. Hopefully it’s nearly calm like the last few days! 

My condolences Sparky.  May she rest in peace.

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Very exciting part of the pattern Tom.  Woke up to a half inch of unexpected snow this morning and then took a look at the Euro version of this storm.  I gotta say this day is off to a good start.

Also keep in mind these ratios are at 10:1 most of us will do much better than that.

1613520000-mb90hRi68Vs.png

Prettiest map I've seen all year. Good write up Tom. I'm getting pretty excited.

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1 minute ago, OKwx2k4 said:

If it snows on me with the next big event, it will all fall on frozen ground here for the first time since I can remember. In fact I don't recall ever having 120 hours below freezing before a snowstorm. Not in my adult lifetime, for sure.

You look to be in the prime spot!

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It is becoming more apparent that MBY may get relatively little snow in one of the longest and coldest stretches in many, many years while points in all other directions get much more. Topeka still has only 1.4" of snow for February and it has been over 7 years since the last snowfall greater than 6".

Obviously, this is not natural so there has to be something sinister causing this...

 

aliens.jpg

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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38 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GFS and NAM are worlds apart for Friday-Saturday.  GFS is much weaker and much further south.  

The GFS basically has no snow for Cedar Rapids/Iowa City for the next 1-2 weeks.  If we don't get something decent at the end of this week, we could be shut out as the snowy pattern sets up well south and east of us.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 12z Euro is way nw with the upper energy early next week, pulls decent snow back into Iowa.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro's 500 mb energy makes the early-week storm look pretty fierce.  Unfortunately, the surface features and deep moisture are so far south and east that we really only get a quick band of moderate snow this far nw.  A few inches would be better than zero, though.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

12z GEFS...

144

What's member 20 all about???

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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21 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro at 10-1 Mon-Tues

1613541600-8wBfSbp6qSs.png

looks like GHD1 no?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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