February 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

looks like GHD1 no?

Sorry bud I'm confused what your asking.

[Clinton]

12z Euro Control with another storm next Thursday tracking over the same area as the Mon-Tues storm.  Here are the totals 10:1

[snowstorm83]

It is 11 here this afternoon. Sorry, been to busy sunbathing losers. 

[snowstorm83]

This month is reminicent of a time in the 70s/80s/90s. My hometown in NW Mississippi is under an ice storm warning and could stay below freezing for an extended period of time with snow chances later on. Definitely a type of pattern I was waiting so long for! Glad they're getting it now. Memphis is so overdue. 

[OKwx2k4]

16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro Control with another storm next Thursday tracking over the same area as the Mon-Tues storm.  Here are the totals 10:1

This is going to be an amazing stretch of winter. Can't believe it.

[gabel23]

12 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

This is going to be an amazing stretch of winter. Can't believe it.

If anyone deserves a map like that it's you! Been a long time since you guys have had anything beneficial in the snow department. Good luck! 

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

If anyone deserves a map like that it's you! Been a long time since you guys have had anything beneficial in the snow department. Good luck! 

Thank you buddy. It seems like it's been forever since I've had a real stretch of snow and classic winter. This one will be about as perfect as it comes if everything runs out right.

[snowstorm83]

Beautiful late afternoon. 13 and partly cloudy skies. Last Wednesday was also the warmest day of the week, except that was 46!

[CentralNebWeather]

12 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Beautiful late afternoon. 13 and partly cloudy skies. Last Wednesday was also the warmest day of the week, except that was 46!

Great picture of the capital in Lincoln 

[Clinton]

18z EC 10:1 so adjust accordingly

 

18z EC at hr 144

[Grizzcoat]

RDPS clearly high as a kite for tomorrow's event in IA-

[Niko]

This could be a doozy of a storm early next week w frigid temps in place as well.

[gabel23]

I got a fire hose pointed right at me, bring it! Big fat flakes falling I would love to score an inch or two out of this. 

[Grizzcoat]

Good to see it's not showing up on HRRR or RAP--- send her down I-80 E of OMA!!!!

[snowstorm83]

26 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

I got a fire hose pointed right at me, bring it! Big fat flakes falling I would love to score an inch or two out of this. 

 

Wow, I saw that but I figured nothing was hitting the ground. That's an awesome little surprise

[gabel23]

Yeah I was watching my home weather station most of the night and was wondering why temps wasn’t dropping; look outside and it’s snowing! I don’t think I’ll get much over an inch or two but quiet the surprise! 

[snowstorm83]

Euro 10:1 and kuchera. Realistic is probably somewhere in the middle

[gabel23]

Just puking snow; so amazing how so little moisture can make these flakes so fat. My driveway was bare ground. I think this weekend has some curveballs to throw our way!

[snowstorm83]

11 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Euro 10:1 and kuchera. Realistic is probably somewhere in the middle

Oops wrong thread. Guess it's good to be in a winter with several ongoing threads at once lol. 

[Tom]

50 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Just puking snow; so amazing how so little moisture can make these flakes so fat. My driveway was bare ground. I think this weekend has some curveballs to throw our way!

 

IMG_1077.MOV 7.63 MB · 0 downloads

This is exactly what I experienced the other day with the extremely high ratio snowfall.  Congrats on the surprise!  Like you said, it seems like this pattern is over performing in certain areas where the jet dynamics are doing it's thing.

[jaster220]

11 hours ago, Clinton said:

Sorry bud I'm confused what your asking.

I meant that the snow swath is wide and takes the same general path that GHD-1 storm did. Am I correct?

[jaster220]

0.6" of dense snow this afternoon. Nice little refresher

[Tom]

Let's have a vote...who agrees that we should start a President's Day storm thread??  Instead of it being started by one of us up north, I feel whole hardheartedly that @OKwx2k4should do the honors...He is WAY overdue and this one has eyes on you my friend!

Meantime, my goodness, tonight's 00z Euro run is a thing of beauty for the heartland of the nation...#snowmaggedon  #FebBlitz2021  

1st cutter....

 

 

2nd Cutter...

[Grizzcoat]

agree- OKwx2k4 needs to start the thread!!!!! (that or the troll that suddenly "disappeared"...)

[snowstorm83]

7 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

agree- OKwx2k4 needs to start the thread!!!!! (that or the troll that suddenly "disappeared"...)

Oh he still sees us  just less conifdent 

[Tom]

00z EPS...

 

Back-to-Back Cutters in the works???  Both GEFS and EPS are seeing it which was the idea last week.  The GEFS are farther east (as usual at this range) but the EPS has been pretty steady.  As I said yesterday, next week may end up being THE highlight reel of the season for many members on here.  Quite the pattern setting up shop for the Central CONUS.

 

[Tom]

14 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

agree- OKwx2k4 needs to start the thread!!!!! (that or the troll that suddenly "disappeared"...)

He's either burying his head in the pillow or into the snow mounds that are growing in his back yard...LOL

[Tom]

Yesterday's snowfall marked the 6th day so far this month that had measurable snowfall.  We will likely add a few more days in a row over the weekend.  I remember Chicago broke a record streak for measurable snowfall during the Feb '18 snow blitz.  We could come close to setting or achieving that record by next week.  If it were not for missing a day on Feb 7th which had no measurable snowfall, we would have tied or set a new record by this weekend.  However, if things align just right, we could tie that streak by the middle of next week.  Let's see if we can make history.

 

 

Not to mention, but Chicago is currently at the #5 spot for consecutive days with a 11" or more snow depth!  I'm surprised that the historic '13-'14 season was not on the list.  

[Clinton]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I meant that the snow swath is wide and takes the same general path that GHD-1 storm did. Am I correct?

yes

[westMJim]

With clear skies the temperature is now down to +1° here at my house. This is the coldest so far this season here at my house. Also the snow on the ground now has compacted down to 10 inches. We are now getting to the time of the season that on sunny days the sun will melt the snow.

[Clinton]

6z Euro a little SE on the Presidents Day storm.  Map is at 10:1 so double the amounts.

 

[Clinton]

6z GFS Mean

[Clinton]

6z Euro Mean 

[Niko]

Temp currently at 8F under sunny skies and a beautiful snowpack to go w it.

Btw: Its going to potentially get very wild here next week.

[Niko]

@OKwx2k4

Go ahead and start a thread for early next weeks major storm! Dont let this slide for too long because we need to start discussing this soon.  (I feel like I am about to start a meeting at work )

@Tom We will need another thread for later that week. I am thinking Thu-Fri timeframe perhaps will be the target storm day. That looks to be another doozy of a storm. Thoughts? This upcoming Weekend could be a good time to start the thread for this one.

[Tony]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

Yesterday's snowfall marked the 6th day so far this month that had measurable snowfall.  We will likely add a few more days in a row over the weekend.  I remember Chicago broke a record streak for measurable snowfall during the Feb '18 snow blitz.  We could come close to setting or achieving that record by next week.  If it were not for missing a day on Feb 7th which had no measurable snowfall, we would have tied or set a new record by this weekend.  However, if things align just right, we could tie that streak by the middle of next week.  Let's see if we can make history.

 

 

Not to mention, but Chicago is currently at the #5 spot for consecutive days with a 11" or more snow depth!  I'm surprised that the historic '13-'14 season was not on the list.  

Looks like LE has started in downtown. Should be another day with flakes flying

[Tony]

4 minutes ago, Tony said:

Looks like LE has started in downtown. Should be another day with flakes flying

Looking at Cams its really coming down hard

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/field/?cam=fieldmuseum

[jaster220]

Below zero here this morning (-1F). With the sun reflecting off the fresh snow and lack of leafs on the trees, it's brighter than a mid-June morning out there.

[jaster220]

 

7 hours ago, Tom said:

00z EPS...

 

Back-to-Back Cutters in the works???  Both GEFS and EPS are seeing it which was the idea last week.  The GEFS are farther east (as usual at this range) but the EPS has been pretty steady.  As I said yesterday, next week may end up being THE highlight reel of the season for many members on here.  Quite the pattern setting up shop for the Central CONUS.

 

Yesterday, WPC said "all systems go" for Snow-blitz 2021. Don't think I've ever seen one of their maps with so much +SN covering such a vast amount of CONUS real-estate. GHD-1 perhaps but I wasn't tuned into them back then.

 

[jaster220]

I was in Central Michigan yesterday and as has been the case all winter, they've got a lot more snow OTG. And it dates back further. A true glacier there from (in some cases) mid-December. The plows have pushed back the banks on the state highway and at intersections and along drifted fields the banks are 4-5 foot high. There would likely be some top-5 snow depths if these next storms were indeed to stay the north route and hit them hard.

This hasn't really been "our winter" down here in SWMI, so I'm not sure if we'll get into the jack-zone or not tbh. Snow fall and depth wise, we have some work to do to get into the historic department. For instance, I had 24.3" here (measured, not on a weenie map) in the first 6 days of 2014!

Without a data set exclusive to Marshall, it's quite a bit of work to "fish for clues" as to amounts/depth from a period of record standpoint. Other contenders for top-5 depth since 1950:

Dec 1951

Feb 1967

Jan 1978

Jan 1999

Dec 2000

I hope to dig into those months and firm up a list with the looming storm train. This is getting serious now, stay tuned..