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February 2021 Observations and Discussion


Hawkeye

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Man ole man have the models been wrong for KC. 

Starting last Saturday, they had 1-3 inches for KC, we received around an 1 inch. They showed from Sunday to Friday a wide range of 4-13 inches. Multiple chances of snow throughout the week. 

I ended up on the NE side of KC with 2.5 inches. It has not snowed since Monday(very light snow at that time)

Now, the once promising Friday storm into Saturday is fading for KC.  The two big storms late in the weekend through next week look very questionable as far as KC getting anything from them as the trend is south on most models. Maybe that's a good thing, showing us getting missed as it showed us getting hit all week but we missed all of the chances.

I sure would hate to look back on this beautiful cold pattern and say we only scored 2.5 inches of snow. I have never witnessed 15-20 days of well below freezing weather resulting in everything that comes through would be guaranteed snow.  As you know, we usually have the rain/snow line problem each storm down here. 

 

So, darn it, come on, let's gets some hits here in KC. I know the EURO has the storm hitting KC late in the weekend into early next week, but, I think that is the only player right now.   

 

 

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7 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Man ole man have the models been wrong for KC. 

Starting last Saturday, they had 1-3 inches for KC, we received around an 1 inch. They showed from Sunday to Friday a wide range of 4-13 inches. Multiple chances of snow throughout the week. 

I ended up on the NE side of KC with 2.5 inches. It has not snowed since Monday(very light snow at that time)

Now, the once promising Friday storm into Saturday is fading for KC.  The two big storms late in the weekend through next week look very questionable as far as KC getting anything from them as the trend is south on most models. Maybe that's a good thing, showing us getting missed as it showed us getting hit all week but we missed all of the chances.

I sure would hate to look back on this beautiful cold pattern and say we only scored 2.5 inches of snow. I have never witnessed 15-20 days of well below freezing weather resulting in everything that comes through would be guaranteed snow.  As you know, we usually have the rain/snow line problem each storm down here. 

 

So, darn it, come on, let's gets some hits here in KC. I know the EURO has the storm hitting KC late in the weekend into early next week, but, I think that is the only player right now.   

 

 

I think the CMC sums it up well for us lol.

snku_acc.us_c.png

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12 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Man ole man have the models been wrong for KC. 

Starting last Saturday, they had 1-3 inches for KC, we received around an 1 inch. They showed from Sunday to Friday a wide range of 4-13 inches. Multiple chances of snow throughout the week. 

I ended up on the NE side of KC with 2.5 inches. It has not snowed since Monday(very light snow at that time)

Now, the once promising Friday storm into Saturday is fading for KC.  The two big storms late in the weekend through next week look very questionable as far as KC getting anything from them as the trend is south on most models. Maybe that's a good thing, showing us getting missed as it showed us getting hit all week but we missed all of the chances.

I sure would hate to look back on this beautiful cold pattern and say we only scored 2.5 inches of snow. I have never witnessed 15-20 days of well below freezing weather resulting in everything that comes through would be guaranteed snow.  As you know, we usually have the rain/snow line problem each storm down here. 

 

So, darn it, come on, let's gets some hits here in KC. I know the EURO has the storm hitting KC late in the weekend into early next week, but, I think that is the only player right now.   

 

 

I just quoted this in the other post lol. the models was showing big snow amounts but has been poof all week! The GFS has been pretty to look at but far from accurate. Im pulling for the Euro storm to provide for us since the storm this weekend is the same storm that dug all the way down into mexico last cycle and brought us a lot of rain. *fingers crossed*

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Just now, someweatherdude said:

It is difficult to imagine KC having been in a worse spot this winter given everything going on all around us.  I think I am going to take my ball and go home. No more model watching for me. Too frustrating.  

If we don't get hit in the next 10 days I'll pack it in also.  But noway we have artic air last this long and not get at least 1.  I would stay with it until this artic outbreak is over.

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I'm pulling for you KC folks, it's definitely an I-80 train this year. In winters like 2013-14, you have everyone getting in on the action while Nebraskans are bored in the background. Feast of famine, it sucks, but it be like that sometimes. I'm sure I'll be miserable next winter begging for a 2-4" event haha. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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GFS loses this beautiful cold pattern one week from Saturday. 

 

It is showing 70's in the Plains by Feb. 25th. WOW! I believe that as this has been a very warm pattern(outside of this 2 week cold snap) and it will return. 

We must score here in the next 10 days! Come on baby!! I think winter will be over after this record breaking cold snap. KC is going for the record of consecutive days below 20 degrees for highs. 13 is the record, today will be #6 and the forecast has 8-9 more days below 20 degrees.  

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11 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

GFS loses this beautiful cold pattern one week from Saturday. 

 

It is showing 70's in the Plains by Feb. 25th. WOW! I believe that as this has been a very warm pattern(outside of this 2 week cold snap) and it will return. 

We must score here in the next 10 days! Come on baby!! I think winter will be over after this record breaking cold snap. KC is going for the record of consecutive days below 20 degrees for highs. 13 is the record, today will be #6 and the forecast has 8-9 more days below 20 degrees.  

Toss the regular GFS

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Without a data set exclusive to Marshall, it's quite a bit of work to "fish for clues" as to amounts/depth from a period of record standpoint. Other contenders for top-5 depth since 1950:

Dec 1951

Feb 1967

Jan 1978

Jan 1999

Dec 2000

I hope to dig into those months and firm up a list with the looming storm train. This is getting serious now, stay tuned..

For some reason the NWS has stopped reporting snow depth and Kalamazoo and Battle Creek. But the record depth at Kalamazoo is 42" in February 1905 and 41" in February 1978. At Battle Creek the reported record is 31" in January 1978. with 26" being reported in January and February 19673

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The system early next week, on the Euro, still cuts the upper energy up to Iowa and produces snow, but the energy is not as strong as a couple runs ago, and moisture is still very limited way up here, so it only drops an inch or two across my area.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I randomly noticed a small WWA in Tulsa...which is for lake effect snow. So thats something lol.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
215 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

OKZ060-061-064-121200-
/O.NEW.KTSA.WW.Y.0004.210211T2015Z-210212T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KTSA.WC.Y.0001.210212T0900Z-210212T1800Z/
Tulsa-Rogers-Creek-
Including the cities of Tulsa, Claremore, and Sapulpa
215 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to
  one inch. Very cold wind chills expected late tonight into
  Friday morning. Wind chills as low as 10 below zero.

* WHERE...Tulsa, Rogers and Creek Counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 AM CST Friday.
  For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 3 AM to noon CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions along the lake effect
  snow band. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening
  commute. Frost bite and hypothermia are possible if precautions
  are not taken late tonight into Friday morning.
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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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