Jump to content

February 2021 Observations and Discussion


Hawkeye

Recommended Posts

Another weenie band tonight popping up in similar location in NE- not showing in either HRRR or RAP. fwiw- I don't think they can handle this amount of cold and ratios / moisture in the atmosphere Hopefully this bodes well for event this weekend. *** edit *** actually a blip just showed up on the RAP but it's gone by 10pm. I doubt that happens.

  • Like 3

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

Another weenie band tonight popping up in similar location in NE- not showing in either HRRR or RAP. fwiw- I don't think they can handle this amount of cold and ratios / moisture in the atmosphere Hopefully this bodes well for event this weekend. *** edit *** actually a blip just showed up on the RAP but it's gone by 10pm. I doubt that happens.

A nice fluffy 1/2" of snow has been dropped so far by the aforementioned weenie band that is moving through the Omaha metro, we might be able to scrape out an inch or so if this band can keep up a bit longer. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The models that had Cedar Rapids on the southern edge of the good snow today were spot on.  I finished with 1.3".

  • Like 4

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Excited for you peeps down S!!! That's going to really test the infrastructure - Probably shut down most of TX I would imagine for several days.

  • Like 3

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Had to chuckle..

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021

The forecast is largely evolving as expected. The exit region of
160 knot polar jet core is causing enough lift to create a large
area of light snow over southern WI and northern IL at 10 pm. The
jet core lifts northeast so most of this snow will fall north of
I-96 between say 3 am and 10 am on Friday.

However there is a glitch (of course). Looking at the Saturation
Equivalent Potential Temperature difference between 1000 mb and
850 mb, it becomes more negative than it did on the 8th when there
was 6 to 10 inches of snow near Port Sheldon. This is one of the
enhance lake snow bands. The band will be strongest during the mid
morning hours over central Lake Michigan as it is shifting back
across the lake toward Michigan. It will be weakening when it
comes on shore. Even both the NAMnest and the HRRR have locally
heavy precipitation amounts (which typically means there will be
locally heavy snowfall even of the location is not exactly
correct).

This band comes onshore by early Friday afternoon so it would be
in the afternoon into the evening we would see the heavier
localized snowfall. At this point there is to much uncertainty to
say much more than it is possible. One other point is that both
the NAMnest and HRRR show a secondary snowfall max EAST (yes
EAST) of US-131 in the evening. That is were the east flow from
the departing system centered to our south, converges with the
incoming surface high. The NAMnest version of this is closer to
US-131 with the heaviest snowfall, and mostly north of GRR. The
HRRR is about one row of counties east of US-131 but also north of
Grand Rapids.
  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Both the 00z UKIE/EURO have a stronger ULL tracking from OK/KC to Chicago which allows for the defo band to swing through the S MW/Lower Lakes region while the GFS is much weaker and sheared out.  If the Euro/UKIE are right, then a solid warning snow is on the table for a lot of the MW/Lower Lakes region.

Deduct a few inches from the snows over Valentine's Day weekend...

1.png

 

The southern Plains are in for a historic snowstorm... @OKwx2k4this has your storm written all over it...

 

2.png

 

 

00z EPS...

3.png

 

 

00z UKIE...the track of the ULL is primo for KC/MO members to get a good snowstorm out of this....hard not to believe it won't deliver for ya'll.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

500hv.conus.png

 

 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I picked up about 1.5" of snow yesterday and it's still snowing lightly at this time.  It was a very fluffy and powdery snow just enough to provide a nice refreshing coating.  I sure can get used to these Snow-on-Snow events that keep stacking up!  #BuildTheGlacier

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here just NW of Grand Rapids 1" of new snow fell overnight. That keeps my snow cover at 10" At the current time there is light snow falling with a temperature of 15. Grand Rapids has now had 5 nights in a row with lows below 10 that is the longest since January 2019. After 11 days February 2021 mean temperature is 18.5° that is a departure of -6.6

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Both the 00z UKIE/EURO have a stronger ULL tracking from OK/KC to Chicago which allows for the defo band to swing through the S MW/Lower Lakes region while the GFS is much weaker and sheared out.  If the Euro/UKIE are right, then a solid warning snow is on the table for a lot of the MW/Lower Lakes region.

Deduct a few inches from the snows over Valentine's Day weekend...

1.png

 

The southern Plains are in for a historic snowstorm... @OKwx2k4this has your storm written all over it...

 

2.png

 

 

00z EPS...

3.png

 

 

00z UKIE...the track of the ULL is primo for KC/MO members to get a good snowstorm out of this....hard not to believe it won't deliver for ya'll.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

500hv.conus.png

 

 

KC Mets are all generally saying 1-3 inches...cut-off is so close.  I am hoping for more of a slightly northern track.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Attm, its cloudy and cold w temps in the teens. Snow arrives later tanite and continuing into tomorrow w a couple of inches likely.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I logged post number 4000 here on Friday, February 12, 2021 doing something I absolutely love. Looking forward to an awesome foot-plus set of snowstorms with people who make my day every single day that I read and get to write here. I'm blessed. Just wanted to enjoy a moment to say what a great day it is. Wouldn't want it any other way and I don't take it for granted.

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's a new one: "Airplane-Effect Snow".
Airplane-effect snow hits Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs
Yes, really. Airplanes made it snow, and meteorologists didn’t see it coming
When you’re a Texas meteorologist, you deal with a lot of wild weather. But forecasters in Texas found themselves tracking surprise strips of snow that materialized late Friday morning, dropping flurries and a dusting of snow on parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.
The snow, initially believed to be lake-effect snow, was actually generated by airplanes taking off and landing at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.
The unusual episode of airplane-effect snow brought rogue snowflakes to Arlington and Grand Prairie, Tex., near Interstate 30.
Airplane-effect snow is rare, but not unheard of. It happened in Chicago on Nov. 27, 2018. It’s a phenomenon that occasionally visits most northern U.S. airports every couple of winters, but it’s very unusual to see airplane-effect snow as far south as Texas. It’s a testament to the extremely cold air mass in place.
To get airplane-effect snow, you need cold air and liquid moisture — two things that usually don’t go hand in hand. The moisture has to be supercooled, meaning it is a liquid at temperatures well below freezing. That can only occur when droplets of water have nothing to freeze on.
AD
When an airplane flies overhead, it releases exhaust, water vapor and a spattering of microscopic hydrocarbons and sooty materials resulting from imperfect combustion in the aircraft’s engines. Those tiny metallic bits can nucleate the supercooled water, essentially seeding the clouds and triggering the formation of ice crystals. When that happens in large enough volume, a few of those snowflakes can make it to the ground.
Supercooled water droplets often can be found beneath steep temperature inversions in the wintertime. An inversion describes a dramatic increase in temperature with height. Mixing at the interface of the two layers of air can result in a narrow layer of saturated air, moisture condensing but having nothing to freeze onto.
Supercooled stratocumulus clouds, which are flat, dreary pancake-like clouds that frequently hover offshore of the West Coast, are usually needed to generate airplane-effect snow.
In the case of Friday’s flurries, all of those ingredients were in place. The morning weather balloon launch from Fort Worth showed temperatures of 24 degrees at the surface and 42 degrees at 6,000 feet. That indicates an obvious inversion present. Moreover, the atmosphere was mostly saturated at that level and down to about 1,500 feet.
That meant that airplanes, which were landing from south to north, would pass through the supercooled droplet layer for several miles during their final approach, creating a strip of snow.
The snow showers didn’t last long, though there were some indications of potential airplane-effect snow in Oklahoma as well. The same frigid conditions that support airplane-effect snow often give rise to lake-effect snow, with bands of snow even drifting off Oologah Lake near Tulsa.
It’s unclear whether the airplane-effect snow produced any accumulation in Texas, but flurries were reported across the Metroplex.
  • Like 3

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The thought just dawned on me but this is prob the 1st time I can remember that literally everyone in this Sub Forum is being effected by the epic cold snap and winters wrath.  It's really an impressive feat given how large of an area our Sub covers and where we have come since the beginning of met winter.  The season's highlight reel will undoubtedly hit the southern/eastern Sub this coming week and most of the eastern CONUS.  So far, this has been an impressive and memorable February.  I know some of you on here have been unlucky and that is unfortunate.  Believe me, I've been there and it hurts, esp when we have such a great pattern of sustained cold.

 

Is there hope for some of you that have been missed???  Let's see what storm #2 later this week has in store and what the models are showing.  The latest 00z GEFS has trended NW and hits a bigger portion of the S MW/Lower Lakes region.

132

 

144

 

168

 

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Check out all of the winter type watches, warnings and advisories for the central and southern parts of the country. KS, OK, and AR 100% coverage and almost 100% Texas along with other states largely covered. Don't think I've ever seen a hazards map quite as extensive as this for south central areas.

 

warnings.png

  • Like 3

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

The real reason I LOVE winter? I enjoy it so much I sleep in it. 20 mins ago. Sweet dreams !!! 

PXL_20210213_115941210.jpg

PXL_20210213_115922650.jpg

My view as I woke up- 

PXL_20210213_154904870.jpg

  • Like 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 3

      March 31st - April 2nd Potent Plains Storm

    2. 5818

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 5818

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    4. 5818

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    5. 48

      The Total Solar Eclipse of April 8, 2024

×
×
  • Create New...