Tom Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 18 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: I'm building an igloo. You may have missed my post earlier today where I suggested you should do the honors and fire up a storm thread...we’re all waiting for ya 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just went outside and measured 2.2”. Still coming down nicely. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 21 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: I'm building an igloo. Man are you looking good for this one. 18z Euro Control at 10:1, ratios of course will be higher : 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 Looking at the Euro ensembles dry air could be a big problem for anyone north of I-70 and west of the Mississippi for this storm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just had a nice burst of heavy snow come through. I have 1.4” of fresh LES powder. I could look out the window all night long it looks fantastic outside right now. Gosh, the kid in me always comes out when it snows! 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 NWS Tulsa snow forecast thru 7 days. 6 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 45 minutes ago, Clinton said: Man are you looking good for this one. 18z Euro Control at 10:1, ratios of course will be higher : Darn good ensemble out of the euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 Another weenie band tonight popping up in similar location in NE- not showing in either HRRR or RAP. fwiw- I don't think they can handle this amount of cold and ratios / moisture in the atmosphere Hopefully this bodes well for event this weekend. *** edit *** actually a blip just showed up on the RAP but it's gone by 10pm. I doubt that happens. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said: Another weenie band tonight popping up in similar location in NE- not showing in either HRRR or RAP. fwiw- I don't think they can handle this amount of cold and ratios / moisture in the atmosphere Hopefully this bodes well for event this weekend. *** edit *** actually a blip just showed up on the RAP but it's gone by 10pm. I doubt that happens. A nice fluffy 1/2" of snow has been dropped so far by the aforementioned weenie band that is moving through the Omaha metro, we might be able to scrape out an inch or so if this band can keep up a bit longer. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 The models that had Cedar Rapids on the southern edge of the good snow today were spot on. I finished with 1.3". 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 12z GFS for Presidents Day storm has come further north. Brings warning level snows up to the MO. river and KC. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 Through next Friday's totals... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 Excited for you peeps down S!!! That's going to really test the infrastructure - Probably shut down most of TX I would imagine for several days. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 Another view....kuchera. just wow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Grizzcoat said: Excited for you peeps down S!!! That's going to really test the infrastructure - Probably shut down most of TX I would imagine for several days. Yeah, it's going to shut down a lot of stuff down here. This is huge. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 @OKwx2k4 get it!! This storm has its eyes on you. You been waiting a long time! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 GFS joins the Euro with temps back above freezing by Friday of next week now 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 Had to chuckle.. .UPDATE... Issued at 1037 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021 The forecast is largely evolving as expected. The exit region of 160 knot polar jet core is causing enough lift to create a large area of light snow over southern WI and northern IL at 10 pm. The jet core lifts northeast so most of this snow will fall north of I-96 between say 3 am and 10 am on Friday. However there is a glitch (of course). Looking at the Saturation Equivalent Potential Temperature difference between 1000 mb and 850 mb, it becomes more negative than it did on the 8th when there was 6 to 10 inches of snow near Port Sheldon. This is one of the enhance lake snow bands. The band will be strongest during the mid morning hours over central Lake Michigan as it is shifting back across the lake toward Michigan. It will be weakening when it comes on shore. Even both the NAMnest and the HRRR have locally heavy precipitation amounts (which typically means there will be locally heavy snowfall even of the location is not exactly correct). This band comes onshore by early Friday afternoon so it would be in the afternoon into the evening we would see the heavier localized snowfall. At this point there is to much uncertainty to say much more than it is possible. One other point is that both the NAMnest and HRRR show a secondary snowfall max EAST (yes EAST) of US-131 in the evening. That is were the east flow from the departing system centered to our south, converges with the incoming surface high. The NAMnest version of this is closer to US-131 with the heaviest snowfall, and mostly north of GRR. The HRRR is about one row of counties east of US-131 but also north of Grand Rapids. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 Both the 00z UKIE/EURO have a stronger ULL tracking from OK/KC to Chicago which allows for the defo band to swing through the S MW/Lower Lakes region while the GFS is much weaker and sheared out. If the Euro/UKIE are right, then a solid warning snow is on the table for a lot of the MW/Lower Lakes region. Deduct a few inches from the snows over Valentine's Day weekend... The southern Plains are in for a historic snowstorm... @OKwx2k4this has your storm written all over it... 00z EPS... 00z UKIE...the track of the ULL is primo for KC/MO members to get a good snowstorm out of this....hard not to believe it won't deliver for ya'll. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 I picked up about 1.5" of snow yesterday and it's still snowing lightly at this time. It was a very fluffy and powdery snow just enough to provide a nice refreshing coating. I sure can get used to these Snow-on-Snow events that keep stacking up! #BuildTheGlacier 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 20 inches down in Louisiana OK 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 Here just NW of Grand Rapids 1" of new snow fell overnight. That keeps my snow cover at 10" At the current time there is light snow falling with a temperature of 15. Grand Rapids has now had 5 nights in a row with lows below 10 that is the longest since January 2019. After 11 days February 2021 mean temperature is 18.5° that is a departure of -6.6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSmokey Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 hours ago, Tom said: Both the 00z UKIE/EURO have a stronger ULL tracking from OK/KC to Chicago which allows for the defo band to swing through the S MW/Lower Lakes region while the GFS is much weaker and sheared out. If the Euro/UKIE are right, then a solid warning snow is on the table for a lot of the MW/Lower Lakes region. Deduct a few inches from the snows over Valentine's Day weekend... The southern Plains are in for a historic snowstorm... @OKwx2k4this has your storm written all over it... 00z EPS... 00z UKIE...the track of the ULL is primo for KC/MO members to get a good snowstorm out of this....hard not to believe it won't deliver for ya'll. KC Mets are all generally saying 1-3 inches...cut-off is so close. I am hoping for more of a slightly northern track. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 6z Euro takes a baby step NW evolves much like the 6z NAM. @Grizzcoatcan you post the Kuchera for the 6z Euro? Here is the 10:1 I'll post the EC that goes to 144 when it's done. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 6z Euro Control a great run for Oklahoma and the Ohio Valley. Brings what I believe would be warning level snows as far north as S. Mich and mby. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 Started a thread for the next storm. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 Attm, its cloudy and cold w temps in the teens. Snow arrives later tanite and continuing into tomorrow w a couple of inches likely. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 12, 2021 Report Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 as of yesterday(11th), we are at -12.5 degrees below average for the month with the coldest days coming up yet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: as of yesterday(11th), we are at -12.5 degrees below average for the month with the coldest days coming up yet That's a heck of a deviation, especially for a core winter month. Basically one of the hardest times ever to run at that record. That's crazy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 I logged post number 4000 here on Friday, February 12, 2021 doing something I absolutely love. Looking forward to an awesome foot-plus set of snowstorms with people who make my day every single day that I read and get to write here. I'm blessed. Just wanted to enjoy a moment to say what a great day it is. Wouldn't want it any other way and I don't take it for granted. 6 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 I had 1.2 degrees for a high today which since this list doesn’t have tenths of a degree, would be 5th coldest in the last 20 years 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 Here's a new one: "Airplane-Effect Snow". https://www.washingtonpost.com/.../airplane-effect-snow.../ Airplane-effect snow hits Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs Yes, really. Airplanes made it snow, and meteorologists didn’t see it coming When you’re a Texas meteorologist, you deal with a lot of wild weather. But forecasters in Texas found themselves tracking surprise strips of snow that materialized late Friday morning, dropping flurries and a dusting of snow on parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. The snow, initially believed to be lake-effect snow, was actually generated by airplanes taking off and landing at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport. The unusual episode of airplane-effect snow brought rogue snowflakes to Arlington and Grand Prairie, Tex., near Interstate 30. Airplane-effect snow is rare, but not unheard of. It happened in Chicago on Nov. 27, 2018. It’s a phenomenon that occasionally visits most northern U.S. airports every couple of winters, but it’s very unusual to see airplane-effect snow as far south as Texas. It’s a testament to the extremely cold air mass in place. To get airplane-effect snow, you need cold air and liquid moisture — two things that usually don’t go hand in hand. The moisture has to be supercooled, meaning it is a liquid at temperatures well below freezing. That can only occur when droplets of water have nothing to freeze on. AD When an airplane flies overhead, it releases exhaust, water vapor and a spattering of microscopic hydrocarbons and sooty materials resulting from imperfect combustion in the aircraft’s engines. Those tiny metallic bits can nucleate the supercooled water, essentially seeding the clouds and triggering the formation of ice crystals. When that happens in large enough volume, a few of those snowflakes can make it to the ground. Supercooled water droplets often can be found beneath steep temperature inversions in the wintertime. An inversion describes a dramatic increase in temperature with height. Mixing at the interface of the two layers of air can result in a narrow layer of saturated air, moisture condensing but having nothing to freeze onto. Supercooled stratocumulus clouds, which are flat, dreary pancake-like clouds that frequently hover offshore of the West Coast, are usually needed to generate airplane-effect snow. In the case of Friday’s flurries, all of those ingredients were in place. The morning weather balloon launch from Fort Worth showed temperatures of 24 degrees at the surface and 42 degrees at 6,000 feet. That indicates an obvious inversion present. Moreover, the atmosphere was mostly saturated at that level and down to about 1,500 feet. That meant that airplanes, which were landing from south to north, would pass through the supercooled droplet layer for several miles during their final approach, creating a strip of snow. The snow showers didn’t last long, though there were some indications of potential airplane-effect snow in Oklahoma as well. The same frigid conditions that support airplane-effect snow often give rise to lake-effect snow, with bands of snow even drifting off Oologah Lake near Tulsa. It’s unclear whether the airplane-effect snow produced any accumulation in Texas, but flurries were reported across the Metroplex. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 The thought just dawned on me but this is prob the 1st time I can remember that literally everyone in this Sub Forum is being effected by the epic cold snap and winters wrath. It's really an impressive feat given how large of an area our Sub covers and where we have come since the beginning of met winter. The season's highlight reel will undoubtedly hit the southern/eastern Sub this coming week and most of the eastern CONUS. So far, this has been an impressive and memorable February. I know some of you on here have been unlucky and that is unfortunate. Believe me, I've been there and it hurts, esp when we have such a great pattern of sustained cold. Is there hope for some of you that have been missed??? Let's see what storm #2 later this week has in store and what the models are showing. The latest 00z GEFS has trended NW and hits a bigger portion of the S MW/Lower Lakes region. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 The real reason I LOVE winter? I enjoy it so much I sleep in it. 20 mins ago. Sweet dreams !!! 4 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just went below 0 for the first time this year. Current temp is -1 WC is -18. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 Nice shift NW on that storm for next week on the GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 Attm, its 15F w snow. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 Check out all of the winter type watches, warnings and advisories for the central and southern parts of the country. KS, OK, and AR 100% coverage and almost 100% Texas along with other states largely covered. Don't think I've ever seen a hazards map quite as extensive as this for south central areas. 3 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: The real reason I LOVE winter? I enjoy it so much I sleep in it. 20 mins ago. Sweet dreams !!! My view as I woke up- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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