February 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

[Clinton]

31 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Both GFS and CMC have trended further west with that storm.  It looks like it could really pound some of us.

[Niko]

How about this for a west movement...

[Hawkeye]

The Euro is way southeast with the late-week system compared to the GFS/GDPS.

[Clinton]

18z GFS for both storms.

[Niko]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z GFS for both storms.

Looks fantastic! Anything west of the state of IL looks very dull unfortunately, until you start hitting the mtns.

[Stormy]

5 minutes ago, Niko said:

Looks fantastic! Anything west of Chicago looks very dull unfortunately.

Yep. These COLD anomalies are not conducive for big snows here. I haven’t seen much snowfall after the real cold began after that blizzard on the 4th.

[Niko]

Just now, Sparky said:

Yep. These COLD anomalies are not conducive for big snows here. I haven’t seen much snowfall after the real cold began after that blizzard on the 4th.

I think the late week system might get Iowa, or at least the eastern parts of the state. Trends today have been more westward.

[Tom]

After today's snowfall, my snow depth is back up to a solid 14".  The top 4-6" is pure fluff which will prob settle some more before our next snowfall come Mon-Tue.  I'm extremely thrilled to be experiencing so many snow on snow events with zero melting during this long cold snap.  It does appear there is an end to this historic cold wave by the following weekend.  Until then, let's enjoy what we can and hopefully benefit some more in the snow dept.

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Lol..from cold and suppressed to warm Rainer on the GFS. What a winter

[Niko]

My total snow depth in mby is 9.2" from all these light snowevents.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Quite the video put out by Jim about the observations put out at Omaha Eppley during yesterday’s snowfall. Definitely is a head scratcher and he’s pretty worked up about it. 
https://fb.watch/3EiTCPCt3x/

[snowstorm83]

I was super confused about KLNK 3.4" yesterday too. It was more like 2" at best.

[OKwx2k4]

42 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Quite the video put out by Jim about the observations put out at Omaha Eppley during yesterday’s snowfall. Definitely is a head scratcher and he’s pretty worked up about it. 
https://fb.watch/3EiTCPCt3x/

They're just straight up lying? Not doing their jobs. Wow. I'll have to check that one out.

[Grizzcoat]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Quite the video put out by Jim about the observations put out at Omaha Eppley during yesterday’s snowfall. Definitely is a head scratcher and he’s pretty worked up about it. 
https://fb.watch/3EiTCPCt3x/

This is what I do at KDSM. I will post my thoughts below very soon- but this is obviously a rookie weather observer. Stay tuned.

[Grizzcoat]

Two reasons (at least) that this individual is a rookie-

#1- Surface VIS doesn't = the intensity of the snow given.  In order to have true moderate snow (SN) the VIS MUST be 1/2mile or less but not 1/4 mile (which is usually +SN-- but not always as FZFG or BR may be the main obscuration and thus a vis of 1/2 or 1/4 doesn't always mean SN or +SN--- BUT you certainly CAN NEVER have 1SM surface VIS with ANYTHING OTHER than (if it's snowing)   -SN (LIGHT SNOW) - so the following are clearly in error.

KOMA 130452Z 01007KT 1SM R14R/P6000FT SN OVC012 M19/M22 A3056 RMK AO2 SLP375 P0003 T11941222
KOMA 130430Z 03008KT 1SM R14R/6000VP6000FT SN OVC011 M19/M22 A3055 RMK AO2 P0002 T11941222

#2- The 4 group MR Flowers is talking about. I would say observer FORGOT to put it in, (happens a lot to newbies) rather than they were making up the snowfall. However- A COR should have been made to correct for this. So the observer really missed this twice.

I will mildly disagree with MR Flowers on having to have SN for several hours to get 3.5". Vis alogorithm is based on how far a laser "can see" -- this is greater at night than day as it's easier to see a lighted plane on approach 10 miles out compared to in the day. 1SM vis at night is equal to about 1/2 .6  mile during day or very close. (depends on many factors)  My point is that 1SM -SN at night is ripping pretty good and this is seen in the "P" groups. This is where the ASOS via an advanced heating element- melts the frozen precip and converts it's water equiv.  ITS rarely ever on -especially the further from 0C you get for 2M temp. With temps below 0F, its only close when it's snowing lightly say with VIS above 3SM at night.  In my experience- this --

KOMA 130552Z 01007KT 1 1/2SM -SN OVC023 M19/M22 A3055 RMK AO2 SLP373 P0003 60008 T11941222 11183 21194 411831228 58005

"60008 is total melted water equiv for the 6 hour period ending at midnight" ACCORDING TO THE SENSOR-- it's almost ALWAYS HIGHER with manual measurements -- in fact I would bet my house on it

this- 60008 at those temps would equal about  2-3" of snow based on how much the sensor loses in melting the snow down. This is based 20+ years of experience.  What needs to be seen in this case is the manual observations -- melting down like others do on here to see a better representation of actual water in the snow and the ratios. The observer maybe went off those #'s, who knows. These are taken and passed on to the local NWS- BUT NOT transmitted in ANY WAY for the FAA. That's probably what the NWS is going with. They are also not used in the climo-- sadlly- the ASOS's "P" are official. Long story on that...

All in all this observer needs to be written up for the incorrect snow intensities and forgetting the "4" group at midnight. Sometimes a "COR" can't be issued if a Speci has been transmitted before you "COR" - but this was clearly not the case as the next observation transmitted was the hourly metar at 0652. Also could have been shift change at midnight and the new observer didn't check previous obs. But the observer whom worked the obs in question by MR Flowers is clearly a rookie and needs correction from the Supervisor. After looking at more obs- there are other hints that said observer is a rookie- but I will leave those alone.

[Grizzcoat]

Also- the resultant 4 groups issued today are clearly amiss if indeed 5.1" of snow fell. Mr Flowers has a STRONG POINT on that.

6AM-

KOMA 131152Z 35007KT 9SM -SN SCT040 OVC085 M20/M23 A3054 RMK AO2 SNB40 SLP369 4/011 P0000 60003 70019 T12001233 11194 21200 53002

NOON-

4/011

6PM

4/009  (settling or BLSN or DRSN I assume) but where did all that 5" of snow go if inded they got that? No way did it settle that quick. BLSN or DRSN hasn't been reported all day.  Somethings is amiss.

[Niko]

Late week system needs to be watched. Could be a doozy of a snowstorm for some peeps on here.

[Niko]

W all of that boundary layer moisture being present, my area could be seeing some "Freezing Fog" by morning. Skies have cleared out nicely now that the snow has ended. Temps will drop rapidly into the single digits under moonlit skies, calm winds and a deep, fresh snowcover. #Winter in full force y'all.

[OmahaSnowFan]

45 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Also- the resultant 4 groups issued today are clearly amiss if indeed 5.1" of snow fell. Mr Flowers has a STRONG POINT on that.

6AM-

KOMA 131152Z 35007KT 9SM -SN SCT040 OVC085 M20/M23 A3054 RMK AO2 SNB40 SLP369 4/011 P0000 60003 70019 T12001233 11194 21200 53002

NOON-

4/011

6PM

4/009  (settling or BLSN or DRSN I assume) but where did all that 5" of snow go if inded they got that? No way did it settle that quick. BLSN or DRSN hasn't been reported all day.  Somethings is amiss.

What's with the 5.1" number and the 4.5" number as well? Those are 2 different numbers reported for the same day too.

Funny thing is that it's well known amongst the weather community around Omaha that the airport is normally always LOW on it's amounts. There's been numerous storms where pretty much the whole metro will be say 8-9", but Eppley would come in at 5.5" for example.

I ended up at 2.8" yesterday so both the 4.5" and the 5.1" is way too high IMO.

[jaster220]

This has been one strange winter.

Due to an easterly flow off of Lake Huron, a county that has a fairly LOW annual avg snow fall (by Mitt stds) has gotten hammered by LES. This place just received almost as much snow in 30 hrs as I've had all season.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1056 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     HEAVY SNOW       TURNER                  44.14N 83.79W
02/13/2021  E20.0 INCH       ARENAC             MI   PUBLIC

            30 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 1030 AM
            THIS MORNING.

[Grizzcoat]

3 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

What's with the 5.1" number and the 4.5" number as well? Those are 2 different numbers reported for the same day too.

Funny thing is that it's well known amongst the weather community around Omaha that the airport is normally always LOW on it's amounts. There's been numerous storms where pretty much the whole metro will be say 8-9", but Eppley would come in at 5.5" for example.

I ended up at 2.8" yesterday so both the 4.5" and the 5.1" is way too high IMO.

The 5.1" is the total for two days. The 4.5" is for Friday only. That is believable for Friday based on the "P" groups I mentioned earlier. But something is wrong with KOMA's "4" groups.

Here is the climate summary from ACC-WX which is very good at this- "official snow cover" is daily at 12 UTC- 6am CST.  But that doesn't seem to change things here.

[Tom]

00z GEFS starting to dial into agreement for our next OHV cutter...

[Niko]

Attm, its 8F under sunny skies, along w a deep snowcover.

[westMJim]

With just over 11 inches of snow on the ground this morning I have to say there is a lot of snow out there. The official snow fall numbers for Grand Rapids are now for February 19.2" Season 34.4" that is still -23.0" At Muskegon for February 11.4" season 34.1" that is -38.9" to the east at Lansing February 11.4" Season 28.9" that is -7.3" there is between 9 and 12" of snow on the ground in the area.

[Clinton]

@OKwx2k4 the first little bit of the mid week storm look great for you on the 12z NAM

[Madtown]

beginning to look a lot like winter

[East Dubzz]

I don’t want all the snow to go away, but I could really use a warm up to start getting some of this snow off my driveway. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

With just over 11 inches of snow on the ground this morning I have to say there is a lot of snow out there. The official snow fall numbers for Grand Rapids are now for February 19.2" Season 34.4" that is still -23.0" At Muskegon for February 11.4" season 34.1" that is -38.9" to the east at Lansing February 11.4" Season 28.9" that is -7.3" there is between 9 and 12" of snow on the ground in the area.

Yeah, without a Big Dog for my locale this snowy stretch with decent ground cover has kinda snuck-up on us. 20th day straight for here as of this morning.

Another notable part is the widespread nature of this pattern. Can't recall seeing this map at 100% tho it may have happened during 13-14 or one of the years since?

 

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

@OKwx2k4 the first little bit of the mid week storm look great for you on the 12z NAM

Yeah, that's looking like an incredible storm!!

Wave 1 looks like it may be weaker than originally advertised in the modeling I (we) have studied but snowing pretty well for the moment.

[OmahaSnowFan]

8 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

The 5.1" is the total for two days. The 4.5" is for Friday only. That is believable for Friday based on the "P" groups I mentioned earlier. But something is wrong with KOMA's "4" groups.

Here is the climate summary from ACC-WX which is very good at this- "official snow cover" is daily at 12 UTC- 6am CST.  But that doesn't seem to change things here.

What about the day before on Thursday? They reported 1” of new snow, and the hourly observations showed light snow for about 7 hours(I think I got maybe a 1/2”) but there’s no melted down qpf amounts. Is this common?

[Hawkeye]

The Euro is well south and east with the late-week storm.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Bored on a Sunday, so I decided to do some in depth digging into our forecast lows from the various models now that we're within 48 hours of the two coldest nights being forecasted here. My current forecast lows are -16 for Monday morning and -20 for Tuesday morning. 

Here's our forecast lows from the 12Z runs today for Monday and Tuesday mornings. The NAM models are super warm and the Canadian models are the coldest.

                       Mon          Tues

GFS:               -15           -21

GFSV16:          -15           -21

Euro:                 -15           -29

NAM:              -9             -5

3kNAM:         -9             -11

HRRR:             -4             -10

GDPS:               -17            -32

RDPS:                -15           -32

15Z RAP:         -13           -21

HRW ARW:      -17           -27

HRW NMMB:   -13          -17

HRW NSSL:     -12          -13

WARMEST:     -4             -5

COLDEST:        -17           -32        

AVERAGE:      -12.8         -19.9

[Grizzcoat]

4 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

What about the day before on Thursday? They reported 1” of new snow, and the hourly observations showed light snow for about 7 hours(I think I got maybe a 1/2”) but there’s no melted down qpf amounts. Is this common?

With some of those vis's around 2SM (who knows for how long without going into the 5 minutes screens which i could do- but am lazy right now) an inch is by no means outlandish. Who knows for sure. Common as far the no melted QpF? yes. And that's the problem. Goes into the climo also but the manual melt down( which doesn't go into the climo)  almost certainly showed a .01 or .02 or even more.

[Niko]

My snowpack by weeks end will be incredible. I currently have 9.2." If Thursday's storm happens as well, then, I will be looking at over 2ft of snow otg.

[Niko]

A few snowshowers have developed currently. Skies are as gray as can be. Ready to start ripping soon. Temp at 20F.

[Tony]

NAM looking really good at the end of its run for the next system

[snowstorm83]

00z GFS not really all that mild in the long range. It looks like just mid 30s at best for most around the weekend time frame and then colder. Which actually will feel like summer after exiting the deep freezer. I'm kind of looking forward to a sharp warm up by the end of the month, but I'll let mother nature do what it do. 

[Grizzcoat]

25F in the sun is going to feel like going to the beach.....

[snowstorm83]

Haha my coworkers and I were joking that the in the 30s forecast we'll be tanning/going to swim