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February 2021 Observations and Discussion


Hawkeye

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As far as the Thursday system goes, it looks like the "East Siders" in MI get a couple of inches and the "West Siders" get zilch. Unless, this storm takes a huge shift westward like other other storm did, it will remain well south and east. Still, it should be monitored because tomorrow it could take that westward track, now that we have yesterdays storm outta the way and also don't forget, didn't this last system go west on the models last second, some 150 to 200 miles or so, so anything is possible w the track. Stay tuned!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

It's amazing that large portions of the Dakotas have no snow while almost the entire states of Texas and Louisiana are covered.  

Yes, hard to believe! Ma Nature can be real cruel and weird sometimes.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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4 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Yesterday at this time, the NAM had me getting 6 inches of snow Wednesday.  Now it's 2 inches.  The NAM always seems to find a way to screw KC.  When it predicts decent amounts a few days out, it doesn't happen.  When it predicts nothing a few days out while the other models are giving us snow, the NAM ends up being right. 

I've noticed this too. I solved the problem by finding the model with the least amount of snow, reducing it by 50%, and going with that.

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Odd. This pm GRR was still bullish on snow across SWMI for Thursday. Huh??

Quote

- Questions on system for Thursday -

As for our system on Thursday I am going on record saying it is
more likely than not that we will see measurable snow over
most of our CWA. The Pacific jet core diving into the west side
of the upper trough is stronger than the jet segment exiting the
trough. This will tend to pull the entire system back westward
some. While that is going on there is a northern stream system
that tries to phase with the southern stream system. All of this
favors a more NAM type solution then the ECMWF which just kicks it
east. What is odd about the ECMWF is that it tries to close off an
upper low near Michigan. If that really happens it will pull the
moisture back into Michigan at mid levels.

At least some of the ensembles like this idea, the 15z SPC SREF
has a 70 to 90 pct chance of measurable precipitation over all of
Lower Michigan between 7 am and 7 pm Thursday. That same SREF has
a 70 to 90 pct chance of a .10 inches or more over most of Lower
Michigan on Thursday. All 30 members of the GFS 12z ensemble have
measurable precipitation over Southwest Michigan Thursday. At
this point this would not be a heavy snow event but it would not
take much given we have potential for a phasing of the northern
and southern stream waves, for this to be significant snow event.
We will just have see how this plays out.

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I've been making comments earlier on to see if Chicago could tie or break the record stream for measurable snowfall and low and behold, we did it, we tied it yesterday at 9 days!  If we can somehow get some measurable snow by midnight tonight we will set a new all-time record.  If it weren't for the dry day on Feb 7th, this would have been a 13 day streak so far.  What a fascinating wx pattern for snow enthusiasts.  Meantime, the stats are just mind blowing since Jan 25th for both MDW and ORD.  See the attached graphic below...we are entering into the holy grail of territories that take us back to the historic winter of '78-'79.  Is this year the one that starts a new trend going forward??  It feels like it could be, esp when you take into consideration how patterns set up in the longer term.  Anyway, this has been the snowiest 3-week period since the winter of '78-'79 and with more snow in the forecast by this coming weekend, the stats will keep growing.  ORD has received 34.1" of snow since the big FLIP on Jan 25th.  A whole seasons worth of snow.  It's wild to think what nature can do.  This has been a version of the Feb '15 Boston Blitz but in a less extreme way.

1.jpg

 

Feb 16th WGN Storm Summary.jpg

 

I remember the CFSv2 forecasts for the month of Feb was showing the MW, particularly centered around the areas of IA/IL with the deepest temp anomalies.  Did the model sniff out the  best snows as well???  Looking at the snow depth map below you can't argue.

nsm_depth_2021021605_National.jpg

 

 

 

nsm_depth_2021021605_Northern_Great_Lake

 

Taking all of the above into consideration, what lies ahead?  More snow.  While the Euro backed off last night, the rest of the models are seeing a potential widespread MW/GL's 3-6" event on Sunday/Monday.  The pattern that keeps on giving and it won't be the last this month.

 

00z GEFS...

138

 

 

1.jpg

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The current temperature here at my house is -9 looks like the official low at GRR so far has been -12 that will be the coldest  since February 20 2015 when it got down to -13. But still not as cold as the record for this date of -19 set in 1973. As I stated at this time it is clear here with a temperature of -9 and there is 13.5" of snow on the ground.

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2 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

We picked up close to an inch overnight, but this morning we have a very pretty light gentle snow falling. It's the kind that would be perfect falling on Christmas Day and everything looks fresh and white. ❄️❄️❄️

Do you think this is our last accumulating snow of the season?  I think we may have a chance in early Mar, but I think this could be it.

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Just now, Clinton said:

Do you think this is our last accumulating snow of the season?  I think we may have a chance in early Mar, but I think this could be it.

I was thinking around Mar 2 and maybe around Mar 13/14 we might have a chance. But I wouldn't be surprised if this was our last hurrah for this year.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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23 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z Canadian through hour 222, wants to drop another significant storm in the Central Plains next week.  Why not, there will be quite a bit of snow melt in the next week, so lets start with some fresh snow.  Long ways out, but something to keep in the back of your mind.  

12z Canadian 2 17.png

Any other models showing it?

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3 minutes ago, centralweather44 said:

Any other models showing it?

GFS no.  12z Euro showing a classic late winter/early spring storm over the Central Plains in the same time frame as the Canadian.  Long ways out, might disappear, but having Canadian and Euro showing something is encouraging.  

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34 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

GFS no.  12z Euro showing a classic late winter/early spring storm over the Central Plains in the same time frame as the Canadian.  Long ways out, might disappear, but having Canadian and Euro showing something is encouraging.  

GFS has it, but it's way north.  Icon also has a storm but kind of splits in 2.  Either way looks like something somewhere in the Plains later next week.  

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1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Still waiting for that troll to pop in......

Wow how can you guys be cheering for BAD WEATHER!?!?! My great grandmother twice removed's cousin's step-daughter fell in the ice one day and bruised her ankle you are all literally advocating for the deaths of millions of Americans a 9/11 with every flake!!! 🤣

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Southern Arkansas is really getting clobbered this afternoon with 2-3"/hr snow in spots.  Radar looks like bright-banding sleet/mix, but it's all snow.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Clouds are rolling back in as the next shot of snow arriving here by tomorrow morning. Skies have this gray look to it, while temps are in the upper teens. Couple of inches of snow is in my foreecast b4 all said and done on Fri w the potential for some lake enhancement from "Lake Huron." A 2-4" snowfall is on tap for mby as of now. ❄️

Btw: Lows dipped to -8F last nite in (Macomb). It was not that bad because there was no wind.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Memphis metro is getting raked with Storm #2. My parents in Desoto county MS have been getting pounded with heavy snow the past couple of hours with more to come. This started with snow/sleet from Monday still on the ground. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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48 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Thankful for the snowstorms. Going to leave me with 90 hours or so of below average temperatures to contend with and a good snowcover to melt out. Been many many winters since I've enjoyed this. So much has changed in 5 years. Nothing is literally the same as it used to be anymore in my family. It's really been that long since I've felt like this. Interesting time. 

Sometime just outside the 10 day stretch, GFS has a storm that could transform in later runs to a oklahoma snowmaker, so this run may not be over yet.

Congrats on the snow. The signature storm of the pattern is due in around March 2nd through the 4th will it be cold enough.

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https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/RAP/2021021721/GL/RAPGL_prec_kuchsnow_051.png&key=dd6bcf199b104dbb1b14226b6862e01f7fb776e857e40cb3afa475df22dfc458

Check out the heavier snows to my east. 😐 Cant be greedy I guess.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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