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February 2021 Observations and Discussion


Hawkeye

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Models indicating February may deliver the goods one more time before we move on. Sneaky storm there on the 27th bears watching.

@Tom, I think that South and Eastern/Northeastern Arkansas probably set all kinds of records. That was surely a storm people all over the south will remember forever. I'm glad for that. I know bad stuff happens in extreme weather. Always will; it's part of it you accept as time goes. I'll accept that (most) kids love snow and it always will make many more people happy than it will sad. It's hard to look at beauty like that and hate snow. It changes everything. There are a lot of kids down here this year who have desperately needed some good memories, and like snow always did for me, may it help their happy memories fill up a little bit. Been a really great weather year and in spite of above avg stretches in December and January, this has really felt like a long winter or overall cold season.

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18F under deep blue sunny skies. About 2.1 inches fell last nite, which added to the deep snowpack here in Macomb county. About 1.6" in Metro Detroit. Great stretch of Winter weather here in SEMI continues. 👍

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This morning's GFS/GFSv16 have another cold shot later next week, followed by a very cold shot around March 1st.  After that there is a big warmup across the nation.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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11 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This morning's GFS/GFSv16 have another cold shot later next week, followed by a very cold shot around March 1st.  After that there is a big warmup across the nation.

This is it. I think the worst of the cold is over for this Winter. Now, its just going get colder at times, but nothing like what we recently had.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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9 minutes ago, Sparky said:

My sister lives near the north edge of that circle. But they might still be visiting my brother out in Fountain Hills, Az. attm.

You have a brother in Fountain Hills?  Get out!  That’s where I stay when I’m out in AZ.

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On 2/18/2021 at 9:36 AM, jaster220 said:

Strange how I could see vid 1 but not vid 2 on my phone. I rarely can see when Peeps upload any vids. Was there a format diff?

The second video didn’t work properly on my iPad. Most times the videos will play, but will take so long to load that I give up like I did with the first video. I’m not sure why they load so slow, because it doesn’t on YouTube or most sites. As an afterthought, my guess is it’s because it probably loads the entire clip before it plays whereas usually it will play as it loads elsewhere.

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

You have a brother in Fountain Hills?  Get out!  That’s where I stay when I’m out in AZ.

Yes I should visit! My brother and his wife live there only during the winter with their primary home in northern Indiana. A view from their home below.

 

DB5ADE79-CC25-4628-ADFE-03BAA89D00C5.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Yes I should visit! My brother and his wife live there only during the winter with their primary home in northern Indiana. A view from their home below.

 

DB5ADE79-CC25-4628-ADFE-03BAA89D00C5.jpeg

Small world!  Typical snow birds I see.  It’s funny, the population in FH increases double from Nov-Apr.  The traffic is much busier compared to the other months.  Right now the weather is superb in the 70’s and some 60’s.   If you ever go out there, let me know.

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7 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Yes I should visit! My brother and his wife live there only during the winter with their primary home in northern Indiana. A view from their home below.

 

DB5ADE79-CC25-4628-ADFE-03BAA89D00C5.jpeg

 

Here’s a screenshot from a video from their house. I thought this was a nicer view.

3F7F81A4-6AAD-4704-B1F7-C77BECBFE213.jpeg

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8 minutes ago, Tom said:

Small world!  Typical snow birds I see.  It’s funny, the population in FH increases double from Nov-Apr.  The traffic is much busier compared to the other months.  Right now the weather is superb in the 70’s and some 60’s.   If you ever go out there, let me know.

Awesome. Yes I remember last year you said you live in that city. I will if I remember! I’ve been in Arizona only twice many years ago, but not in the Phoenix area.

Edited by Sparky
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Here in KC, we are still struggling to get above freezing for a high, getting close though. Its been 14 days since we have been above 32 degrees. The FEB. sun angle is still going to work on the snow pack. Plenty of melting going on and we should be snow free by sometime later this weekend or for sure on Monday. 

What a beautiful run of winter weather, likely the best I have seen in KC ever or at least in a long while. Heck, all lakes in MO froze over shore to shore, I don;t think that has happened in 10+ years. Maybe longer...

Here in KC, the coldest temp I recorded was -18 and I totaled 4.3 inches of snow in 5 small snow events. South of I-70 on all of our properties, there was likely closer to 6 inches of snow total. All in all, one of the best snow removal periods I have ever had due to the cold temps and every flake sticking. This was quite impressive across the nation, something we will remember for a long time.

 

Now, does it snow again in KC? Last year our last snowfall was on Feb. 12th and that was a grass accumulation due to marginal temps. Did KC see its last pavement accumulation this last Wednesday? We'll see. 

 

Great forecast Tom, you posted on Jan. 29th, saying, "is the best yet to come, I think so!" Nice work. 

 

60+ degrees forecasted for KC on Tuesday, I think that might just feel like Florida weather.   

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1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

I find it funny that the above precip goes right through the area that saw pretty much no snow this year! Specifically the western part of the dakotas. 

The LR clues are for a mod/strong La Niña next winter.  PAC ocean is forecast to cool significantly this summer into autumn.  There should be some Niña flavor.

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Looks like next week will feature some modification in this arctic airmass. My temps could be flirting w the upper 30s, dare I say near 40F at best. This will feel like a heatwave. Some melting will be occurring, so, flooding will likely be happening. Thankfully, it gets colder again by weeks end and also, a potent storm to watch for that upcoming weekend.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Last nights 00z UKIE and today's 06z GFS are trying to sniff out a wave along a Cold Front mid next week.  A pattern that keeps on giving???  Late month into March is trending towards a formidable storm system that's been on the calendar since Mid-January.  March opening up like a Lion???

snku_024h.us_mw.png

 

00z UKIE...

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

 

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

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I picked up just over a inch of new snow overnight and now have 13.5" on the ground here. Officially at the airport they reported 0.6" of snow fall for yesterday and for the season they now report 42.9" that is still 17.6" below the 30 year average as of this date. The official snow depth at GRR is 12" At this time I have clear skies and a temperature of 13.

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Topeka fun facts about the cold snap...more cold than snow...

  • 13 days below 32F. (2/6-2/18)
  • Record 10 consecutive days <=15F. (2/7-2/16; old record 8 in Dec 1983)
  • 4.1" of snow during the 13 days below 32F.
  • 1.7" on the snowiest day. (2/14)
  • Still below average snowfall for the season: 12.4": -2.5 (14.9") as of 2/19. -5.4 (17.8") for season.

 

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

@jaster220   @westMJim  @Stacsh  Looking at this radar loop, you guys get any LES???

1.gif

Airport showed snow for a few hours but nothing of sig here at my place in town. Grazed perhaps like back at Christmas.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Went out and looked at the snowy fields for the last time today. What a truly amazing two weeks it has been. With temps now not projected to fall below freezing tonight, the snow will be gone altogether in the morning. The big chill is officially over. Next week's 50-60s plus much dryer weather to close out the month will be a head fake to spring. 

My early guess is that it was one of the top 3 cold waves of all time, but I could be wrong.

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Its going to be a frigid nite here in SEMI as temps fall below zero. More snow tomorrow w a couple of inches possible, especially later in the evening.

Note: So far, it has been a snowy February, where 20.7" has fallen and thus far for the season, Detroit is at 40.2" and more to come.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

Its going to be a frigid nite here in SEMI as temps fall below zero. More snow tomorrow w a couple of inches possible, especially later in the evening.

Note: So far, it has been a snowy February, where 20.7" has fallen and thus far for the season, Detroit is at 40.2" and more to come.

Good luck with more snow! Stay warm!

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That 00Z GFS has two more shots of Arctic Air (albeit brief) two more snow events at least for many and not nearly as warm as previous runs...

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

That 00Z GFS has two more shots of Arctic Air (albeit brief) two more snow events at least for many and not nearly as warm as previous runs...

Yeah. That 1-2 punch there from 190 on is starting to look like it may have a little power behind it the last 3 runs. Bears watching. 

If I write winter off, it won't leave. :lol:

Still a lot of cold air stored in the mid-lats on the other side of the globe. The test will be if it can reload and relaunch over on our side as we get into March.

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