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February 2021 Observations and Discussion


Hawkeye

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Frigid start this morning, at -4F, but rebounded nicely into the mid 20s w cloudy skies and snow knocking on my doorstep. Looking at 2-3inches, maybe an overachievement in spots.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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19 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Good luck with more snow! Stay warm!

You too man!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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A little over a inch of wet sloppy snow fall here. The current temperature here is 33. We took a trip up to Bay City yesterday and while there is a solid snow pack across the state of Michigan and it looks like there is about 12" of snow on the ground until we got east of Midland when the snow depth fell and it looks like around 5 or 6" or so in the Bay City area. There is a lot of ice on the Saginaw river and there are people snowmobiling and ice fishing on the river.

 

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51 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

We really need a balanced spring between slow melt and cold again to prevent massive flooding.

Snow core H20 equivalent are running from 2 to 5" across the deepest areas of snow pack. ORD and MDW don't do one, but MKE over the weekend was 4.1" of water in the snowpack. DSM is 2.3". Omaha has to be similar. Timing is going to everything and just because you lose 1/2 of your snowpack- nearly 90% of the water is still there. It's not until those last few inches are melted that most of the water is released.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I don't think flooding should be much of an issue in Nebraska. We're still in D0 drought and most of the snow should slowly melt with the sunny and 40s this week vs. sudden 40s and rain. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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This morning is very likely as deep as the snow will get here, so I took a measurement.  In my backyard it is 18".  There are some dense layers, too.  I had to chop through the bottom few inches that have been compacting since late December.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This morning is very likely as deep as the snow will get here, so I took a measurement.  In my backyard it is 18".  There are some dense layers, too.  I had to chop through the bottom few inches that have been compacting since late December.

Wow, the Dec 29th snow didn't survive the mid Jan mild spell here. Even the crust from Jan 25th takes a bit to cut through. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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21 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This morning is very likely as deep as the snow will get here, so I took a measurement.  In my backyard it is 18".  There are some dense layers, too.  I had to chop through the bottom few inches that have been compacting since late December.

I’m on the south side of Waterloo right now and while I haven’t taken an official measurement that’s about what I’m guessing here too-  looking at our deck the snow is above the legs of the chairs that are sitting out there-  

melting and compacting very quickly today though!

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7 minutes ago, Sparky said:

How can northern Mn. warm up as much and soon as here?

C9BD7EE3-C30D-4405-8133-2E1D84B91DE5.gif

I would say less snow cover but apparently INL has a snow depth of 13" sooo idk. 61 in Pierre SD tho 😵. It's also starting to look like it may hit 50 here tomorrow. That'll take out several inches of the snowpack. Not too upset, it'll be neat to have a bare ground beforehand if we get some stuff in early March. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 minute ago, snowstorm83 said:

I would say less snow cover but apparently INL has a snow depth of 13" sooo idk. 61 in Pierre SD tho 😵. It's also starting to look like it may hit 50 here tomorrow. That'll take out several inches of the snowpack. Not too upset, it'll be neat to have a bare ground beforehand if we get some stuff in early March. 

I suppose the chinooks are warming up the high plains, but surprised how mild northeast Mn. is where it usually hits -40°!

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4 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

I would say less snow cover but apparently INL has a snow depth of 13" sooo idk. 61 in Pierre SD tho 😵. It's also starting to look like it may hit 50 here tomorrow. That'll take out several inches of the snowpack. Not too upset, it'll be neat to have a bare ground beforehand if we get some stuff in early March. 

It's crazy to walk outside and just hear water running everywhere!

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3 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

I would say less snow cover but apparently INL has a snow depth of 13" sooo idk. 61 in Pierre SD tho 😵. It's also starting to look like it may hit 50 here tomorrow. That'll take out several inches of the snowpack. Not too upset, it'll be neat to have a bare ground beforehand if we get some stuff in early March. 

We (northern minnesota) did not have any impact from the low that affected you guys down south yesterday, I had all sun and only dropped to 30 overnight.  There is a massive sub 980mb pacific low going across canada dragging pacific air across the Canadian prairies, warmed even more by the chinooks coming down from the Canadian Rockies.  

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Not so much were Beltami Island is- but most of N.MN (esp the arrowhead) is all  (mostly) conifer trees. In the Spring (today is a little early for this - but later in the Spring it's spot on) is that with increasing sun and sun angle (especially in low snowpack zones) conifer trees absorb much more warmth than trees with no leaves. ( deciduous trees)  You can see this affect in April much more so when apparent air mass temps is not much different between MPLS and Ely,MN- yet with no clouds in late PM - Ely is warmer due to the conifer effect. Even with urban heat island effect- day temps in N.MN will be much higher than progged based on this alone. Watch and see.

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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11 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Not so much were Beltami Island is- but most of N.MN (esp the arrowhead) is all  (mostly) conifer trees. In the Spring (today is a little early for this - but later in the Spring it's spot on) is that with increasing sun and sun angle (especially in low snowpack zones) conifer trees absorb much more warmth than trees with no leaves. ( deciduous trees)  You can see this affect in April much more so when apparent air mass temps is not much different between MPLS and Ely,MN- yet with no clouds in late PM - Ely is warmer due to the conifer effect. Even with urban heat island effect- day temps in N.MN will be much higher than progged based on this alone. Watch and see.

 

I agree. Less sunlight reflecting off of the snow too. When you check visible satellite on a sunny day with snow cover, you can tell where the forests are.

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3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

This morning is very likely as deep as the snow will get here, so I took a measurement.  In my backyard it is 18".  There are some dense layers, too.  I had to chop through the bottom few inches that have been compacting since late December.

I tried to take a measurement this weekend and my yard stick snapped in half due to the layers of ice.  I managed to get to 13" in one spot, but I couldn't tell if I had hit grass or not.  I don't think I did.  It was too hard to measure in most spots with all the thick ice, so I guess I don't really know what we have here.  At least 13" though. LOL.  

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4 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

This morning is very likely as deep as the snow will get here, so I took a measurement.  In my backyard it is 18".  There are some dense layers, too.  I had to chop through the bottom few inches that have been compacting since late December.

Exactly same here,  17.5 snow depth yesterday.  Layers and several inches of ice at bottom. I maxed out  earlier in feb at 21". Over 44 inches for the season.

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Not taking sublimation into account, my 18" snow cover in the backyard contains 4.13" of liquid (the total precip I've recorded since late December).

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Today was really beautiful, highs in the mid 40s. Lots of people wearing shorts (including me). Big snow pack eater as well. There's bare ground in some of the spots hit by direct sunlight, only 6-8" left in the higher areas. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Sledding season is pretty much done here after 39 and 44 the last couple days. There just wasnt enough base to withstand the warm temps.

My sled hasn't moved since mlk weekend when I decided there really wasn't enough snow to make it worth riding until we get more snow..... it never happened.

If you blindly gave me a summary of temps, precip, and snow for my area since  October 1, I would say with strong confidence that we must be in a moderate to strong el nino, go figure.

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Interesting convective component to tomorrow's clipper here. May see thunder regardless of ptype to my SW. Pretty sure I'm a lock for all snow here, all warmth aloft has been zapped by the NW flow tonight.

Got up to the 40s with light rain yesterday, the result of that is a zapping of basically all non-drifted snow.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Not a March thread, but the GFS continues to advertise a very brief cold shot to open March and then it gets torchy.  Been there off and on for a couple runs.  If we get what the GFS is promoting, there will be floods.  

Side note edit:  Maybe it's time for a March thread?  the rest of February looks boring.  

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Some fun facts. Todays total daylight is the same as October 17th So far this winter the total snow fall at Grand Rapids is now at 44.8” and that is still 17.2” below average as of this date at GR. While it was mild in December and January it has been much colder in February. The mean for February at this time is 17.0 and that is a departure of -9.1 and the mean for the winter season at this point of 25.8 is actually colder than average (26.6) at this point. The warmest day this year so far is 41. On average the 1st 50° day at Grand Rapids is February 8th The earliest is January 1st 2011 and the latest is April 4th 1912. The average 1st 60° day is March 14th the earliest is January 4th 1997 and the latest is April 17 1975. Today should be the warmest day this year so far. The snow pack will start melting today as highs should reach into the 40's at this time there is 14" of snow on the ground here at my house.

 

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9 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Some fun facts. Todays total daylight is the same as October 17th So far this winter the total snow fall at Grand Rapids is now at 44.8” and that is still 17.2” below average as of this date at GR. While it was mild in December and January it has been much colder in February. The mean for February at this time is 17.0 and that is a departure of -9.1 and the mean for the winter season at this point of 25.8 is actually colder than average (26.6) at this point. The warmest day this year so far is 41. On average the 1st 50° day at Grand Rapids is February 8th The earliest is January 1st 2011 and the latest is April 4th 1912. The average 1st 60° day is March 14th the earliest is January 4th 1997 and the latest is April 17 1975. Today should be the warmest day this year so far. The snow pack will start melting today as highs should reach into the 40's at this time there is 14" of snow on the ground here at my house.

 

It's that time of year where temps will exceed forecasted temps almost every time with any sun.  

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1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

Bye bye to most of this today. The past 30 days sure have been a wild ride.

A982E8F5-EF20-49E6-9253-E5D24F737DE1.jpeg

No doubt. I find myself having model disease. Too many storms over a short period of time. Dont' get me wrong - heck of a ride that I enjoyed but it's actually becoming slightly "old". I think it's over for the most part. One thing is certain is how much you learn - or at least think you do - on the models. Not just one storm and you forget 3 weeks later how they performed, this was like a 10 ball roman candle going off and was good to remember how each model did and not having to wait 3 weeks.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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