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February 2021 Observations and Discussion


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56 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

It's that time of year where temps will exceed forecasted temps almost every time with any sun.  

39F in my grid, but already 42F. Besides during the arctic outbreak, this has been a theme all "cold season" around here.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nearly all the snow cover south of Iowa is gone.  It's amazing how quickly it can go from snow and record cold to spring.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This from Brett Anderson at Accuweather “

Signs continue to point toward a slightly warmer-than-normal March across a large portion of eastern North America, while below-normal temperatures may dominate in the West.

The reason for this will likely be a persistent trough from northwestern Canada to the western third of the lower 48 states.

Even in the west, we are not talking about any sustained period of bitter cold, as the bulk of the Arctic air will be hanging out from the Yukon Territory on over into Siberia.

This pattern does favor a moist, southwesterly flow of air that will likely be directed toward the Great Lakes, eastern Canada and the northeastern United States, which is likely to result in a wetter pattern with near-normal high temperatures and above-normal low temperatures.

Despite the lack of real cold, there will still be more opportunities for accumulating snowfall in March throughout eastern Canada and the interior northeastern U.S., including the Midwest/Great Lakes”

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30 minutes ago, westMJim said:

This from Brett Anderson at Accuweather “

Signs continue to point toward a slightly warmer-than-normal March across a large portion of eastern North America, while below-normal temperatures may dominate in the West.

The reason for this will likely be a persistent trough from northwestern Canada to the western third of the lower 48 states.

Even in the west, we are not talking about any sustained period of bitter cold, as the bulk of the Arctic air will be hanging out from the Yukon Territory on over into Siberia.

This pattern does favor a moist, southwesterly flow of air that will likely be directed toward the Great Lakes, eastern Canada and the northeastern United States, which is likely to result in a wetter pattern with near-normal high temperatures and above-normal low temperatures.

Despite the lack of real cold, there will still be more opportunities for accumulating snowfall in March throughout eastern Canada and the interior northeastern U.S., including the Midwest/Great Lakes”

I would add that could favor extreme flooding as well.   Any Heavy additional snow/rain will certainly lead to impacts.  Best case is we melt off slowly before any high moisture storms traverse the Great Lakes.  

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23 hours ago, bud2380 said:

I tried to take a measurement this weekend and my yard stick snapped in half due to the layers of ice.  I managed to get to 13" in one spot, but I couldn't tell if I had hit grass or not.  I don't think I did.  It was too hard to measure in most spots with all the thick ice, so I guess I don't really know what we have here.  At least 13" though. LOL.  

You’ll just have to settle for these then from yesterday.

https://kwwl.com/2021/02/22/seasonal-snow-update
 

https://www.weather.gov/dvn/obsmapsnowdepthmon

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

Once I saw the end was near, it was time for me to make my trip out to AZ.  I wasn’t lying when I saw a potential pattern that could conceivably become historic and it did.  I was open about it and admittedly delayed my trip.  I’m glad I committed to it bc it was about a months worth of winter that I will never forget.

 

The weather was about as ideal as one could ask for across the heartland.  Clear skies,  calm winds and barely any turbulence.  I snapped these photos and vids along the way.  Maybe some of you will notice the sharp bending of the Mississippi River and can tell me where this location was.  My guess is near DBQ or NW IL!!??   The beautiful deep and expansive snow pack was evident.  You can't tell from the pics,  but with the naked eye you can see the rolling hills covered by a thick blanket of snow.  We flew over a ski resort as well once inside IA.  It could actually have been the one @bud2380 went to the other day.

Tom, it looks like you crossed over the Mississippi River near the Quad Cities... it is unmistakable from the air with the more densely populated areas surrounding the river. I can make out the bridges crossing the river between Davenport\Rock Island and Bettendorf\Moline fairly well in the pictures.

I used to travel to the Quad Cities area for work on a regular basis so I am familiar with the area.

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26 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Tom, it looks like you crossed over the Mississippi River near the Quad Cities... it is unmistakable from the air with the more densely populated areas surrounding the river. I can make out the bridges crossing the river between Davenport\Rock Island and Bettendorf\Moline fairly well in the pictures.

I used to travel to the Quad Cities area for work on a regular basis so I am familiar with the area.

That was my second choice!  Thanks for the feedback as now I’ll make a mental note of it when I circle back to these pics.  I drove through this area a couple years ago and now flying over it sorta makes it full circle...haha!

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We all miss at times and we all will, but I just wanted to show that sometimes we nail it here, too. From 3 point land. :) December (the 2000-01 analog), and this recent cold outbreak (2010-11 analog) are all the proof you need. Its been a fun winter for the first time in 5 years. I know I've been quieter this season, but just wanted to do a better job at being objective when I write for you folks. I really do care about that stuff. Even to the ones who troll us for giving the effort we do. 

The rewards for our hard work on our hobby are the amazing number of folks who stood up for us this year and encouraged us to keep going. Those who gave grace when it was needed and those who provide genuine beneficial criticism when I'm wrong and back it up with why they think that way. I love you guys and thank you. 

and.....WINTER'S NOT OVER YET! :)

Screenshot_20210223-235554_Brave.thumb.jpg.36bfd2a97be5deb364bf57a7ad17f96d.jpgScreenshot_20210223-235449_Brave.thumb.jpg.54e7ed5b756d00c30cda2d1b5a6f0571.jpgScreenshot_20210223-235234_Brave.thumb.jpg.b3c5b0137a6104f96c190c749b3487b1.jpg

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Back to back 46F and sunny days has halved Monday morning's snow pack. True winter was 3 week period for Mby. That's better than it was looking tbh. I could be fine with warmth in March.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Lincoln is up to a -16.6 depature for the month. Plugging in the forecast for the next few days puts us at around -14. It's still going to be the 5th coldest Feb behind 1899, 1936, 1978, and 1979. For a while I thought only 1899 and 1936 would be ahead but I always forget how cold the late 70s winters were. Feb 1978 had a max temp of only 41, even 1936 hit 53. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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While this winter's total snow fall is only 44.8" This February will end up as one of the top snowiest February's in Grand Rapids history. We will end up at least the 6th snowiest and are still in play for the 5th spot. If Grand Rapids fails to reach 50" that would be the first time that Grand Rapids has not had at least 50" since the winter of 1986/87 And only the 4th time since 1950.
At this time it is partly cloudy and 31 here

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Happy Friday!  #TGIF...the slow and steady demise of the snow pack (30% U.S. coverage) continues as a thaw/freeze cycle carry's on to close out February this weekend.  Out here in the desert SW the wx pattern is rather boring...but beautiful.  It's been sunny everyday since I got here but temps have dipped a bit yesterday into the upper 60's which brought a slight chill into the air.  Mornings are brisk and right now its a nippy 46F.  Another dry CF is in the forecast this weekend but I am hopeful that the trough that is forecast to hit the area next Wed brings some much needed moisture. 

 

nsm_depth_2021022605_National.jpg

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After a cold overnight low of 15 here the temperature is now up to 30 with clear skies. The official overnight low at GRR looks to have been 18. There was no snow or rain yesterday, the February snow fall remains at 29.6" and for the season it remains 44.8" As of yesterday at 7 AM the official snow depth is down to 6" here in my yard there is around 5" on the ground but there are spots of bare ground showing and of course there are the snow piles that will take some time to melt. For the month the mean is now at 19.0 and that is a departure of -7.4.

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29 minutes ago, Tom said:

Wow, can’t believe it’s still that deep after all the warmer weather.  ORD is already down to 7” since this morning.

We've had full sun here for a few days and temps in the 40's.  I'm still around 8" as well in the yard.  The piles are still chest high in my driveway.  Going to take some rain to melt it at this rate.  

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11 hours ago, westMJim said:

After a cold overnight low of 15 here the temperature is now up to 30 with clear skies. The official overnight low at GRR looks to have been 18. There was no snow or rain yesterday, the February snow fall remains at 29.6" and for the season it remains 44.8" As of yesterday at 7 AM the official snow depth is down to 6" here in my yard there is around 5" on the ground but there are spots of bare ground showing and of course there are the snow piles that will take some time to melt. For the month the mean is now at 19.0 and that is a departure of -7.4.

That sounds about like what I have here.

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Also first chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for 2021 tonight!!

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9pm and midnight. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. East southeast wind 9 to 16 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

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Satellite shows the snow cover gone south of Des Moines.  That part of Iowa is rising into the 50s this afternoon.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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