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February 2021 Observations and Discussion


Hawkeye

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8 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z GFS through 150 hours.  Things suppressed to the south.  Will be interesting if that is the trend for the week and other models. 

12z GFS 8.png

Expect fluctuations on every model run. I wouldn't bite on any run until it actually starts to snow.

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I’m not sure where this comment belongs, but currently it’s looking very pretty outside with nice big dentrites floating down as a decent band of snow is developing along I-80. I’m hoping it doesn’t shift just north. 
 

I picked up 1.3” of pure fluff overnight as well, with just 0.03” liquid equivalent.

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43 minutes ago, Tom said:

I see you used the”word of the day”...it is rather gelid outside today!

Yep, I think its the best word that can be described for today.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@Tom

 NOAA sees an opportunity for something more substantial towards late week and beyond.....

Quote:With an expanding upper low positioned over the northern plains by
the end of the forecast, it is not inconceivable that one of these
later waves will be more substantial (compared to the more clipper-
esqe style wave during the week) as any shortwave ejecting into the
area will arrive from the southwest CONUS with the potential for
better moisture transport into the region within the broadening
southwest upper level flow such a pattern would establish. Such a
pattern would also be more conducive for a phasing of the southern
stream wave with the northern stream upper low. Something to keep in
mind in the event that a southern stream wave over-achieves -vs- the
current envelop of medium range model solutions.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 minutes ago, Niko said:

@Tom

 NOAA sees an opportunity for something more substantial towards late week and beyond.....


Quote:With an expanding upper low positioned over the northern plains by
the end of the forecast, it is not inconceivable that one of these
later waves will be more substantial (compared to the more clipper-
esqe style wave during the week) as any shortwave ejecting into the
area will arrive from the southwest CONUS with the potential for
better moisture transport into the region within the broadening
southwest upper level flow such a pattern would establish. Such a
pattern would also be more conducive for a phasing of the southern
stream wave with the northern stream upper low. Something to keep in
mind in the event that a southern stream wave over-achieves -vs- the
current envelop of medium range model solutions.

Yup, I'm hoping the models figure out the Valentine's Day system over the next day or so.  It's been on my calendar during this period for a Southern Stream storm. 

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1 minute ago, Tom said:

Yup, I'm hoping the models figure out the Valentine's Day system over the next day or so.  It's been on my calendar during this period for a Southern Stream storm. 

Indeed, also, my local forecaster last nite mentioned this potential for "Valentines Day" and said that this storm, if everything develops perfectly, could have some great snowfall accumulations for a lot of peeps on here.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Bummer... this good band of snow this morning doesn't want to lift up into the Cedar Rapids area.  It appears I'll be on the edge.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It's snowing nicely on the very south end of CR.  I wish I was at my house in Tiffin or in North Liberty as the better bands are just a few miles south of here.  I bet someone picks up 2" from this, because where I'm at now the snow is accumulating decent and the radar returns here are weak.  Further south, I bet it piles up in a hurry. 

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12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Nice snow falling right now, might be getting close to an inch for the day.  10 degrees with a heat index of -3.

Lets build up that glacier down there! 👍

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Being on the northern edge of the snow band, it is not snowing hard.  However, it is a snow globe with large flakes and no wind.  It almost looks like a slow-motion snowfall.

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  • Snow 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, bud2380 said:

There are so many waves, and so much run to run variance on any systems beyond a few days, it's really hard to get a feel for how much snow may actually fall during this pattern.  A week ago most models showed that much of Iowa would get 8-12" of snow from Thursday through today, but nothing really materialized here outside of the blizzard Thursday which did drop 4-6" locally.  So when again the GFS and Euro are showing wide spread high totals over much of the area, it's still hard to feel very confident about any of it.  The Euro shows widespread snow (2-5" type range) on Thursday, GFS is dry.  The GFS shows a strong system Wednesday for MO and IL, where the Euro is mostly dry or very weak.  The GFS has a weak system Friday and a strong system Saturday that would affect most of this forum, but the Euro shows nothing substantial during that time.  It feels like you may as well not even look at anything beyond 48 hours right now with this pattern as it likely will change, and potentially dramatically beyond that time frame.  

Ive had 9.5 inches since last Thursday 

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5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z Euro through 144 hours, Sunday morning.  

I would happily take 5-6" of fluff this week ahead of the PV plunge.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Nice little swath of snow coming for later today and into tanite. Hopefully, it can overachieve.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaad1.gifhttps://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/PatternLate.jpg?w=632

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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23 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Being on the northern edge of the snow band, it is not snowing hard.  However, it is a snow globe with large flakes and no wind.  It almost looks like a slow-motion snowfall.

It’s the same way here except I was on the south edge and it’s quite light now. It would be neat to get 10” of this fluff just to experience it once in a lifetime! Usually don’t get much around here once it’s fluffy, dry snow.

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

12z GGEM...through Friday...

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

Through this weekend...

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

48 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z Euro through 144 hours, Sunday morning.  

12z Euro 2 8.png

So now some models still are showing a nice amount of snow right through my area! I guess we’ll see how that all pans out after awhile.

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The snow band has lifted north to solidly put Cedar Rapids under it.  Again, it's not heavy here, but it's a nice fluff coating.  There's some pretty heavy snow in a band just north of the QC.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I'm at about 1" now.  I can see through this stuff so it's probably 30:1 ratio.  The band over central Iowa is waning and DVN radar shows it weakening up here, so I probably won't make 1.5".  I'd love to see some totals from under the stationary yellow band between CR and the QC.

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  • Snow 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Getting light snow now w a temp of 17F. Radar looks impressive. Maybe an overachiever coming.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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21 minutes ago, Tom said:

Beautiful daytime snowfall...flakes are nice and big like puff balls.  Looks similar to LES.  The heavier band is lifting north into my area now.  Hoping to squeeze out 2” from this.

Should be snowing late into the evening so I would expect a little more. 

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My snow total today is 1.1" from only 0.03" liquid... a 36:1 ratio.  Two days ago, with the temperature about the same, the ratio was 10:1.  Flake quality matters.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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