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February 2021 Observations and Discussion


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Just a reminder of The Weather Channels FEB temp forecast

Once I saw the end was near, it was time for me to make my trip out to AZ.  I wasn’t lying when I saw a potential pattern that could conceivably become historic and it did.  I was open about it and ad

Is the best yet to come???  This may be a rather long post regarding the Long Range pattern bc there is a lot of data that I've filtered through that support the long standing idea (admittedly later t

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Decent chance I'll be moving again soon! This time to Mason City, IA. Hopefully this move lasts a bit longer than my last two lol

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.9"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

What a treat this morning...it’s like a balancing act by nature to those who missed the previous LES event...

It really was a treat this morning in southern lake county. Fat flakes were slowly falling from the sky.

I probably got two inches of pure fluff but the sun is out and it is already melting. I see on radar there is action to the west, hope it fills back towards me

As @Tonysaid the lake has been nice this year. Maybe having a warm early winter is good in the long run as it keeps the lake from freezing over

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2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Decent chance I'll be moving again soon! This time to Mason City, IA. Hopefully this move lasts a bit longer than my last two lol

I thought you were supposed to come back to Lincoln or something like that

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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A few more pics from desoto county MS from last night and today. Memphis has received 10” over the past few days. 

E7182012-C2C9-4862-960D-0A8B5AC5A77F.jpeg

1294BDFB-836E-4B8A-8103-158625D88469.jpeg

A7CD06AD-2578-4C99-ADCB-9F36B068F8C5.jpeg

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Triple post, but meanwhile Lincoln has warmed to 24 this afternoon! South facing surface melting is occuring for the first time in a while. Summer is here! 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Snowpack is still around 9-13" deep in most spots. KLNK was 15" for several days (lower now I believe), but I dont think it was that high here for more than a few hrs due to sublimation. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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5 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

I thought you were supposed to come back to Lincoln or something like that

Lol, we all have our hopes and dreams huh

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.9"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Snowing light to moderately now for the past couple of hours and does not wanna stop. Temp at 22F.

@SlowpokeHow much do ya have so far....I must be at least over 2 inches. This could be an overachiever.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Snowing light to moderately now for the past couple of hours and does not wanna stop. Temp at 22F.

@SlowpokeHow much do ya have so far....I must be at least over 2 inches. This could be an overachiever.

1.2" on the day here. Mostly mega-fluff this evening/night. Very sparkling tho and some light pillars were faint but noticeable too.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The last in a series of storms to hit the south during the 17th-18th dumped an impressive 10-21" of snow down in Arkansas!  That has to be an all-time state record.  Highest total reported was 21" in Gurdon, AR.

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Models indicating February may deliver the goods one more time before we move on. Sneaky storm there on the 27th bears watching.

@Tom, I think that South and Eastern/Northeastern Arkansas probably set all kinds of records. That was surely a storm people all over the south will remember forever. I'm glad for that. I know bad stuff happens in extreme weather. Always will; it's part of it you accept as time goes. I'll accept that (most) kids love snow and it always will make many more people happy than it will sad. It's hard to look at beauty like that and hate snow. It changes everything. There are a lot of kids down here this year who have desperately needed some good memories, and like snow always did for me, may it help their happy memories fill up a little bit. Been a really great weather year and in spite of above avg stretches in December and January, this has really felt like a long winter or overall cold season.

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18F under deep blue sunny skies. About 2.1 inches fell last nite, which added to the deep snowpack here in Macomb county. About 1.6" in Metro Detroit. Great stretch of Winter weather here in SEMI continues. 👍

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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This morning's GFS/GFSv16 have another cold shot later next week, followed by a very cold shot around March 1st.  After that there is a big warmup across the nation.

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season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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11 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This morning's GFS/GFSv16 have another cold shot later next week, followed by a very cold shot around March 1st.  After that there is a big warmup across the nation.

This is it. I think the worst of the cold is over for this Winter. Now, its just going get colder at times, but nothing like what we recently had.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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57 minutes ago, Niko said:

This is it. I think the worst of the cold is over for this Winter. Now, its just going get colder at times, but nothing like what we recently had.

Yay, I sure hope so!

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 38.5”

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9 minutes ago, Sparky said:

My sister lives near the north edge of that circle. But they might still be visiting my brother out in Fountain Hills, Az. attm.

You have a brother in Fountain Hills?  Get out!  That’s where I stay when I’m out in AZ.

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On 2/18/2021 at 9:36 AM, jaster220 said:

Strange how I could see vid 1 but not vid 2 on my phone. I rarely can see when Peeps upload any vids. Was there a format diff?

The second video didn’t work properly on my iPad. Most times the videos will play, but will take so long to load that I give up like I did with the first video. I’m not sure why they load so slow, because it doesn’t on YouTube or most sites. As an afterthought, my guess is it’s because it probably loads the entire clip before it plays whereas usually it will play as it loads elsewhere.

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 38.5”

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

You have a brother in Fountain Hills?  Get out!  That’s where I stay when I’m out in AZ.

Yes I should visit! My brother and his wife live there only during the winter with their primary home in northern Indiana. A view from their home below.

 

DB5ADE79-CC25-4628-ADFE-03BAA89D00C5.jpeg

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 38.5”

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3 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Yes I should visit! My brother and his wife live there only during the winter with their primary home in northern Indiana. A view from their home below.

 

DB5ADE79-CC25-4628-ADFE-03BAA89D00C5.jpeg

Small world!  Typical snow birds I see.  It’s funny, the population in FH increases double from Nov-Apr.  The traffic is much busier compared to the other months.  Right now the weather is superb in the 70’s and some 60’s.   If you ever go out there, let me know.

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7 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Yes I should visit! My brother and his wife live there only during the winter with their primary home in northern Indiana. A view from their home below.

 

DB5ADE79-CC25-4628-ADFE-03BAA89D00C5.jpeg

 

Here’s a screenshot from a video from their house. I thought this was a nicer view.

3F7F81A4-6AAD-4704-B1F7-C77BECBFE213.jpeg

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 38.5”

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8 minutes ago, Tom said:

Small world!  Typical snow birds I see.  It’s funny, the population in FH increases double from Nov-Apr.  The traffic is much busier compared to the other months.  Right now the weather is superb in the 70’s and some 60’s.   If you ever go out there, let me know.

Awesome. Yes I remember last year you said you live in that city. I will if I remember! I’ve been in Arizona only twice many years ago, but not in the Phoenix area.

Edited by Sparky
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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 38.5”

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Here in KC, we are still struggling to get above freezing for a high, getting close though. Its been 14 days since we have been above 32 degrees. The FEB. sun angle is still going to work on the snow pack. Plenty of melting going on and we should be snow free by sometime later this weekend or for sure on Monday. 

What a beautiful run of winter weather, likely the best I have seen in KC ever or at least in a long while. Heck, all lakes in MO froze over shore to shore, I don;t think that has happened in 10+ years. Maybe longer...

Here in KC, the coldest temp I recorded was -18 and I totaled 4.3 inches of snow in 5 small snow events. South of I-70 on all of our properties, there was likely closer to 6 inches of snow total. All in all, one of the best snow removal periods I have ever had due to the cold temps and every flake sticking. This was quite impressive across the nation, something we will remember for a long time.

 

Now, does it snow again in KC? Last year our last snowfall was on Feb. 12th and that was a grass accumulation due to marginal temps. Did KC see its last pavement accumulation this last Wednesday? We'll see. 

 

Great forecast Tom, you posted on Jan. 29th, saying, "is the best yet to come, I think so!" Nice work. 

 

60+ degrees forecasted for KC on Tuesday, I think that might just feel like Florida weather.   

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20 hours ago, Tom said:

Sneak peak into next Winter???  CPC thoughts...wild guess...

 

1.gif

2.gif

 

I find it funny that the above precip goes right through the area that saw pretty much no snow this year! Specifically the western part of the dakotas. 

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1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

I find it funny that the above precip goes right through the area that saw pretty much no snow this year! Specifically the western part of the dakotas. 

The LR clues are for a mod/strong La Niña next winter.  PAC ocean is forecast to cool significantly this summer into autumn.  There should be some Niña flavor.

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Looks like next week will feature some modification in this arctic airmass. My temps could be flirting w the upper 30s, dare I say near 40F at best. This will feel like a heatwave. Some melting will be occurring, so, flooding will likely be happening. Thankfully, it gets colder again by weeks end and also, a potent storm to watch for that upcoming weekend.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Last nights 00z UKIE and today's 06z GFS are trying to sniff out a wave along a Cold Front mid next week.  A pattern that keeps on giving???  Late month into March is trending towards a formidable storm system that's been on the calendar since Mid-January.  March opening up like a Lion???

snku_024h.us_mw.png

 

00z UKIE...

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

 

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

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I picked up just over a inch of new snow overnight and now have 13.5" on the ground here. Officially at the airport they reported 0.6" of snow fall for yesterday and for the season they now report 42.9" that is still 17.6" below the 30 year average as of this date. The official snow depth at GRR is 12" At this time I have clear skies and a temperature of 13.

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Topeka fun facts about the cold snap...more cold than snow...

  • 13 days below 32F. (2/6-2/18)
  • Record 10 consecutive days <=15F. (2/7-2/16; old record 8 in Dec 1983)
  • 4.1" of snow during the 13 days below 32F.
  • 1.7" on the snowiest day. (2/14)
  • Still below average snowfall for the season: 12.4": -2.5 (14.9") as of 2/19. -5.4 (17.8") for season.

 

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total 12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2")
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3)
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8 hours ago, Tom said:

@jaster220   @westMJim  @Stacsh  Looking at this radar loop, you guys get any LES???

1.gif

Airport showed snow for a few hours but nothing of sig here at my place in town. Grazed perhaps like back at Christmas.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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