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February 2021 Observations and Discussion


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Expect this system to keep cutting North and especially W. Why? I could go into all that LRC stuff and all, but will not as I don't really believe it.  It's gut and that's all. The blocking simply can't hang on this strong for duration and WAA is going to win WAY out - esp areas E. 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Just a reminder of The Weather Channels FEB temp forecast

Once I saw the end was near, it was time for me to make my trip out to AZ.  I wasn’t lying when I saw a potential pattern that could conceivably become historic and it did.  I was open about it and ad

Pics taken in & near Argusville and Gardner, ND. Temps were in the -17*F area the entire time. Actually burned my hand touching my metal tripod a couple times.

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44 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Uh oh 😬

1612461600-NPnWKdtN9sg.png

2/23/2017 was one of the more memorable weather days during my time in Lincoln. Up there with the February 2019 blizzard and the May 2019 tornado. The setup looked exactly like this. Had a severe t-storm in Lincoln where the main ptype was sleet.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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48 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Expect this system to keep cutting North and especially W. Why? I could go into all that LRC stuff and all, but will not as I don't really believe it.  It's gut and that's all. The blocking simply can't hang on this strong for duration and WAA is going to win WAY out - esp areas E. 

I call it will be an IA magnet/cutter...might track right over your place or just east in E IA.  

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This system bears watching for many surprises for some peeps, whether good or bad. Be prepared for the unexpected. Also, snowcover ground and cold air around/in place, in many areas, should make this storm track interesting.........🤔

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Just when you finally cave in and say, "Allright then! We can do spring. I'm okay with winter just ending in peace like the weakness that it's been for 6 years." NOPE!! Even winter trolls me. 🙄 Now we're going to have January in February. 😆

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Looks like we will get our first bout of REAL LES after the early FEB storm.  Don't care if we get rain with the LP system here in Michigan.  The backside is what intrigues me.  

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

Is the best yet to come???  This may be a rather long post regarding the Long Range pattern bc there is a lot of data that I've filtered through that support the long standing idea (admittedly later than expected) that winter would come back and have legs for the remainder of the season.  What initially looked like a fantastic solution to the MMW Polar Vortex disruption in very late Dec/early Jan, Mother Nature said, "hold my beer"...I have something else planned.  As rare of an event, or rather, a sequence of events, we are about to see a 2nd major disruption of the Polar Vortex to open up February.  Even the top mets (@Judah Cohen) were thrown a curve ball and have yet to see such a pattern in the Stratosphere.  While 2020 was an anomaly for many reasons, 2021 is starting off on the same foot.

Over a week ago, the GEFS were sniffing out the 10mb well in advance and it perked my attn which now makes sense for the delayed "extreme" cold that i called for the 2nd half of Jan.  With that being said, is this 2nd disruption the final nail in the coffin???  Will this produce a pattern ripe for extremes???  I believe so.  Not just the cold, but a favorable active STJ and energized jet stream as we open up the last month of met Winter.

The Jet stream usually reaches its peak intensity right around this time of year into the 1st half of Feb.  It is my opinion, this year the jet stream is acting like an "energizer bunny" and I don't see it relaxing anytime soon...maybe towards mid-March when the jet slows down dramatically and we will have to deal with monster/slow moving winter storms (I expect the -NAO block to rock in March).  What I'm seeing that is coming down the road for the majority of our Sub is a remarkable pattern, with remarkable model agreement.  Over the past week, I've seen changes in the modeling that support the idea where the west-based Greenland Block grows stronger as we get closer in time.  Keeping that in mind, along with the nature of how the sequence of events is transpiring in the Stratosphere, AND the continuation of a deep -AO pattern, AND the all-important -EPO, we are setting the stage for a full onslaught of Ol' Man Winter.  

In recent days, the models are now beginning to lock in on a reversal in what was a continuation of a +EPO.  Instead of Pacific flow influencing the North American pattern, the Upper Air Flow will allow surges of Arctic air into the pattern.

Not to mention, a favorable Phase 7 during La Nina's in February look good for our Sub... courtesy from @BamWx...notice the western NAMER ridge and SER....

Unlike recent February years, this year, the models have busted bad with the -NAO pattern in the seasonal outlooks and mid/long range.  Knowingly, when the LRC was setting up way back in the Autumn months, there was a Long Term Long Wave Ridge that set up shop across eastern Canada and has made sense to me why the models have busted with this block.  While we move deeper into the later part of Met Winter and Spring, I foresee some unusual high lat blocking in the Spring months.  Not to get to far ahead of myself, there is a lot more winter for those who seek snow and cold.  Let me dive in....

In remarkable agreement, yesterdays JMA weeklies along with the CFSv2 weeklies are in alignment that Feb should deliver the goods.

The CFSv2 during this same period agrees...albeit a bit warmer across the eastern CONUS...on the other hand, the LR 35-day GEFS is in agreement with the 

Euro Weeklies finally caught onto the Greenland Block and it's tendency to loose it in the LR came into fruition again on this run as well as loosing the -EPO pattern.  As a result, in the near term of its LR model run, it has turned colder for the 1st half of February.  I'm not even going to comment on the Day 20-45 because it has done terribly during this period.  Instead, I will focus on the CFSv2 which has done a lot better IMHO and fits the overall theme.  The last daily run of the CFSv2 for February is showing major blocking in the Arctic regions and the all mighty Greenland Block.

Are we on the verge of a something incredible???  I get fired up with excitement seeing the data that's being illustrated for this month.  Who wouldn't as a Winter Wx enthusiast?  I begin to wonder if this pattern will turn into a "Central CONUS Glacier"...nature certainly is showing that it is possible with a glacier that has already set up across IA/MN (30+ days of snow cover and counting), smack dab in the middle of the Midwest and I suspect it will grow and expand this month. 

Gosh, this was one of the longest LR posts I've done...I think I covered the main key points I've been thinking about for quite some time.  Now, let's sit back and see what Ol' Man Winter has in store!

 

Always fun to read.  I hope you're right!  If you're not, I'm going to call you an idiot for your efforts.  😉

 

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4 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z NWS Blend of Models ratio.  I just upgraded on Pivotal Weather and have never used this map before.  I'll post it as others might have seen it before.

NWS Blend 1.png

Can you show to the Great lakes too?

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3 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

12 GFS looking bizarre for Thursday

It is always bizarre lately.  I've lost all faith in it, and really only rely on Euro and Canadian, and some of the shorter range models.  I think the upgraded GFS v16 is what to look at.  I really just think they should scrap the GFS.  

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10 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

It is always bizarre lately.  I've lost all faith in it, and really only rely on Euro and Canadian, and some of the shorter range models.  I think the upgraded GFS v16 is what to look at.  I really just think they should scrap the GFS.  

GFS is supposed to go bye bye sometime in February

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19 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

It is always bizarre lately.  I've lost all faith in it, and really only rely on Euro and Canadian, and some of the shorter range models.  I think the upgraded GFS v16 is what to look at.  I really just think they should scrap the GFS.  

Bizarre? Have you seen the 12z Canadian?  Now that is a different solution.  Splits next weeks storm west of the rockies.  Turns one part into a clipper the other down to Baja as a cutoff.  

Who knows, maybe the Euro will match this?

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12Z Canadian shows really nothing for the next Wednesday/Thursday storm, and instead puts a massive storm in the Central Plains next Saturday and Super Bowl Sunday.  If nothing else, the next week or longer will have many curve balls thrown our way.  I'll take that any day compared to nothing going on.  Not all of us will be hit, but plenty to study and track.

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25 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z Canadian shows really nothing for the next Wednesday/Thursday storm, and instead puts a massive storm in the Central Plains next Saturday and Super Bowl Sunday.  If nothing else, the next week or longer will have many curve balls thrown our way.  I'll take that any day compared to nothing going on.  Not all of us will be hit, but plenty to study and track.

The Canadian buries me in snow lol so......

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12z GEFS looks south and weaker but all over the place lol. 4 day mean bc they they don't have 48 hr 🙄

1612526400-rzyQ1zrkVRY.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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February is looking very active and colder than normal. Fun times ahead. Also, the extended looks sweet and storm track looks great as well w a very busy STJ.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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35 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z Euro 10:1 ratio to hour 174.  

Euro 104.png

My area is right in the bullseye........what could go wrong?! LOL. My goodness, that snow with the winds would spell some fun trouble! 

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Just now, gabel23 said:

My area is right in the bullseye........what could go wrong?! LOL. My goodness, that snow with the winds would spell some fun trouble! 

I am thinking the same thing.  Would sure like for the Canadian to even be close to the Euro.  It is in another universe with its 12z run

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Looks like we might have a battle of the models for a bit on the Feb 5/6 system.  I wonder which one will prevail?....🤔

 

euro.jpeg

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
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FGF isn't even thinking about amounts or placement right now. Smart move.

Quote

There continues to be good agreement within guidance of upper
troughing working its way out of the West and into the
Plains/Midwest around Wed-Fri timeframe. Current suite of guidance
progs this troughing to become deepest over the Northern Plains
around Wed-Thu timeframe, although there may still be some
variability in timing. Still, this good agreement of a deepening
trough into the area increases the chance for potentially impactful
winter weather to the area. Details beyond this become less
confident, although there are some clusters within ensemble guidance
that brings QPF amounts exceeding 0.25 inches, a threshold that can
be analogous to accumulating snowfall potential.

Additionally, the majority of ensemble members strengthen a surface
low under this trough moving into the Plains/Midwest around Thursday
next week, thus introducing the potential for gusty winds. Depending
on how much snow the region gets after next week`s warm up, gusty
winds will only compound potential winter impacts as it combines
with fresh snow. At this point, the forecast should be monitored for
those with interests around the region next Wed-Fri, with possible
lingering impacts mainly from increased chances in seasonably cold
temperatures behind this system.

 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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19 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

If the GFS long range was ever right temp wise, this would be the coldest winter on record.  So overblown every run it's crazy.  

Man I couldn’t agree more, just seems day after day week after week month after month we keep hearing about the cold that’s coming but unfortunately it never does. I know the guys saying it here are just saying what the models are telling them honestly and I don’t blame them but at some point you would think they would look at that same model that told them the cold was coming over and over the past few years that never really does and they would ignore it. Even if we get some cold to come down in the lower 48 next month it will be February already, them lights you see at the end of the tunnel is Spring and it’s coming fast! Don’t get me wrong I enjoy reading some of our long range forecasters occasionally that do post here even though they might only be hitting .300 if their lucky but at least their in the game and trying, better then my sorry a**, I wouldn’t have any idea how to read them models or make a long range forecast. :)

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