February 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

The Arctic Express has arrived courtesy of the howling westerly winds (G 35mph) that are shaking my west-facing windows.  Temps are tanking into the single digits by morning.  We didn't have that much snow but close to 2" I'd say. Actually, I just checked and ORD officially reported 2.3" which was on the lower end of guidance.  I'll take it.

Now, begins the hyper active wave train as the arctic temp gradient becomes established and along the southern periphery of the long wave trough centered over the north-central CONUS, we will see PAC waves racing east across the Sub.  Next week is by far going to be one of the most memorable weeks for cold and snow for a lot of members on here in years.  Hands down.  Once we get towards the following weekend, during the Valentine's Day period, I'm expecting a strong storm to track into the 4 corners and eject out into the Plains states.  This potentially large scale storm system has delivered in both previous LRC cycles which tapped copious moisture from the GOM.  I got an asterik placed on my calendar for this one and I expect the global models to pick up on it over the weekend.  By the time we enter the mid point of Feb, there will undoubtedly be a Central CONUS glacier established.  Ol' Man Winter is about ready to deliver a Fierce round of Winter Wx.  

[Tom]

My goodness, I have never seen such deep departures from normal for such an extended period....#Chiberia2021

 

[CentralNebWeather]

22 minutes ago, Tom said:

My goodness, I have never seen such deep departures from normal for such an extended period....#Chiberia2021

 

 

22 minutes ago, Tom said:

My goodness, I have never seen such deep departures from normal for such an extended period....#Chiberia2021

 

NWS Hastings says they will be checking records to see when we’ve had a stretch that has been this brutal. I’m going to enjoy every minute of it. This is what we live for the rest of the year and in the bad years. 

[westMJim]

Getting a heavy lake effect snow shower here at this time temperature is now now to 18

[GDR]

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Canadian full run builds a glacier across the center of the nation.  My goodness.

[Niko]

Attm, my temp is at 18F under cloudy skies. Wcf is near 0F.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro full run.  Central Plains is the north pole.  

[Clinton]

12z Euro picking up on a nice storm around Valentines Day.  This one imo has some potential to be a little bigger deal than the smaller series of waves we will have over the next few days.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro picking up on a nice storm around Valentines Day.  This one imo has some potential to be a little bigger deal than the smaller series of waves we will have over the next few days.

February may go down in the history books for cold and snow.  

[Hawkeye]

That's some interesting change from this morning's Euro.  So far, models have unanimously brought the core of the cold down later in the week and suppressed all the storm action far south.  Now the Euro, for at least one run, keeps the PV to the north and swings two more solid waves of snow through the midwest.  Regardless of what happens, this is a very weather-geeky pattern we've entered into.

[westMJim]

I had a good 18 to 20" drift in my driveway. I now have the drive way cleared and waiting for more snow to fall over the next several days. I have at least 6" of new snow (yesterday and today so far) and 8" on the ground with some drifts. At this time there is light snow falling and a temperature of 18 here.

[Niko]

Another Winterstsorm Watch issued for NYC w more hvy snow on tap for them. They are on a roll.

[Tony]

18z GFS has LE going on this side of the lake starting next Thursday going into Saturday. Interesting for sure but a long ways off

[Hawkeye]

The 18z GFS has added the Thursday snow system to match the 12z Euro.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The 18z GFS has added the Thursday snow system to match the 12z Euro.

Keep ‘em coming!

[snowstorm83]

5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The 18z GFS has added the Thursday snow system to match the 12z Euro.

00z GFS looks more robust so far. Could have some pretty crazy snow depths in Nebraska and Iowa by the end of the week. 

[Clinton]

0z GFS is just plain awesome!

[Clinton]

0z GFS thru Thursday at 10:1 ratio

[gabel23]

Ok this would be just insane. Even half that in the midwest would be an impressive back loaded winter. Feel so bad for North Dakota......but then this is like a once in a lifetime situation for our area. This is something that would be expected up there this time of year. The ice box month of Feb. looks like it might have some legs!

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, gabel23 said:

Ok this would be just insane. Even half that in the midwest would be an impressive back loaded winter. Feel so bad for North Dakota......but then this is like a once in a lifetime situation for our area. This is something that would be expected up there this time of year. The ice box month of Feb. looks like it might have some legs!

I told my students today that they are living through history. We haven’t had a cold stretch like this for at least 20 years. None of them were even born yet. Add onto that many snow chances now and in the extended, and it is truly historic. 

[gabel23]

9 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I told my students today that they are living through history. We haven’t had a cold stretch like this for at least 20 years. None of them were even born yet. Add onto that many snow chances now and in the extended, and it is truly historic. 

I did the same thing with my students today! We had a stretch in Dec. of 2000 with single digit highs and consecutive days with below zero lows. Even then we didn't see a week straight of that! We are talking a week of below zero lows and maybe making it to 10 for a high! I was born in December of 1983, the 21st to be exact, and I swear to this day that's the reason I'm so in love with weather, snow and cold. We had 2 feet of snow on the ground, week straight of below zero temps and the line for the day was -10 for a high and -22 for a low! 

[Niko]

Late next week has a very potent system followed by some bitterly cold air. This system needs to be watched.

[jaster220]

41 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I told my students today that they are living through history. We haven’t had a cold stretch like this for at least 20 years. None of them were even born yet. Add onto that many snow chances now and in the extended, and it is truly historic. 

Ofc, we don't do the cold here in the Mitt like you in the Plains, but what your describing is very much like our 2014 winter.  We won't see the snow depths we had then either, but I did see some decent drifts along 94 tonight that were reminiscent of that winter and have not been seen since. This week is actually also very 1982.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

Ok this would be just insane. Even half that in the midwest would be an impressive back loaded winter. Feel so bad for North Dakota......but then this is like a once in a lifetime situation for our area. This is something that would be expected up there this time of year. The ice box month of Feb. looks like it might have some legs!

#CentralConusGlacier....it is remarkable to see what the models are showing over the next 2 weeks across our Sub.  It literally looks like every detail you look for to see a pattern favorable for snow/cold are lining up this month.  If this FEB comes close to what the models are indicating, the history books will be re-written.  It's too bad we couldn't see this pattern earlier in the Winter but who's going to complain??  The majority of this Sub is on the verge of sharing in the wealth dept.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, Tom said:

#CentralConusGlacier....it is remarkable to see what the models are showing over the next 2 weeks across our Sub.  It literally looks like every detail you look for to see a pattern favorable for snow/cold are lining up this month.  If this FEB comes close to what the models are indicating, the history books will be re-written.  It's too bad we couldn't see this pattern earlier in the Winter but who's going to complain??  The majority of this Sub is on the verge of sharing in the wealth dept.

Well said Tom. We have dreamed about a pattern like this for a long time in Central Nebraska. Everything you could ask for and more. 

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Well said Tom. We have dreamed about a pattern like this for a long time in Central Nebraska. Everything you could ask for and more. 

It's crazy bc our Sub is so far reaching that its rather difficult to see nature hit both the western and eastern part in tandem.  You literally need every single piece of the puzzle to line up in order for all of us to enjoy tracking snow and have sustained cold.  I mean, this year's blocking pattern over Greenland was the missing link for many years and it finally showed up this year.  Once these blocking patterns show up in the Arctic they cycle every 2-3 years so it leads me to believe that next year we'll have more of the same.  One could only imagine that if we have a double Nina (which the CFSv2 is forecasting for next Autumn) that we can line up a few good seasons in a row and balance out the lackluster seasons of recent years.

 

Meantime, 00z Euro has it snowing every single day next week for many folks across the MW/GL's...the entire snow shield bumped north this run...

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

Dream pattern? No doubt. But the Kuchera ratios listed are about 1.5 too high. Fun to look at, But in the end about .75% of what might happen - and even than- likely is closer to 13 to 17to 1- not these absurd totals that some sites show based on ratios. The air may be dry and cold- but it's not the Arctic. And thank goodness its not for even their ratios when measured are not what many think (30:1 to even 50:1) . IF they are- it's with .01 to .03 QPF based on snow crystal formation.

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Dream pattern? No doubt. But the Kuchera ratios listed are about 1.5 too high. Fun to look at, But in the end about .75% of what might happen - and even than- likely is closer to 13 to 17to 1- not these absurd totals that some sites show based on ratios. The air may be dry and cold- but it's not the Arctic. And thank goodness its not for even their ratios when measured are not what many think (30:1 to even 50:1) . IF they are- it's with .01 to .03 QPF based on snow crystal formation.

I never take the amounts verbatim and only use it as a general idea of where the heaviest snows may fall or where the model is seeing snow will fall.  Don't get me wrong, they are fun to look at bc as you said in the other thread, there is "always a chance" of it snowing that much.

[gabel23]

17 minutes ago, Tom said:

I never take the amounts verbatim and only use it as a general idea of where the heaviest snows may fall or where the model is seeing snow will fall.  Don't get me wrong, they are fun to look at bc as you said in the other thread, there is "always a chance" of it snowing that much.

Exactly! Honestly I always say half of what long range models show is a winner! There is no doubt NWS and all media outlets are at another level and have better models to look at. I have to say though I trust and feel this board brings forth a pretty accurate account of what to expect. Also, Tom you nailed it on the head; for things to line up for everyone on this board would be exceptionally rare. Cheers to a February to remember for a lot of us!

[westMJim]

Yesterdays official snow fall total at GR of 7.9” broke the days snow fall record. It should be noted that historically by February in most years the lake effect is shut down by there being too much ice on the great lakes but this year that is not the case.

Here at my house, I now have a total of 12 inches of snow on the ground. At the current time there is light snow falling and the temperature is 14.

The snow fall as of midnight (February 5^th) was 11.2 for February and for the winter season Grand Rapids is now at 26.4” but that is still -26.6” below where we are on average by this date.

[Clinton]

12z GFS continues to advertise something bigger towards the end of the week.

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS continues to advertise something bigger towards the end of the week.

So much going on now, I haven’t looked farther ahead than the next 2 days. Looks impressive for sure. 

[Niko]

All eyes are towards the end of next week....."Powerhouse" w a triple phase in the works????!!!!

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Canadian full run 

[GDR]

[Hawkeye]

The GFS and GDPS are incredibly active, indefinitely.  If the PV can remain north, we can expect waves of at least light snow every couple days.

[Niko]

Wanna take you guys out east and show you that Ma Nature will provide more snow for the EC once again.....not nearly as huge as the previous snowstorm, but nevertheless, near a foot or more likely less for the "Big Apple" and give or take for other nearby cities. Not too shabby. They need to do some catching up after what seemed to be a snowless Winter last year and the year b4 that.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS and GDPS are incredibly active, indefinitely.  If the PV can remain north, we can expect waves of at least light snow every couple days.

Prob the best outcome possible and I hope it’s right.  It’s nice to see the Thu/Fri system still showing up and the Valentines Day storm.  Incredible pattern.  

[Hawkeye]

This morning's Euro also has a biggie in the extended, with arctic air in place.  There is a lot of potential coming up.